Million said: Shissy said: 115 million max. Likely around 85-100m.   I'd agree , 200 million is an absurd number.   1. The PS2 had around 75-80% of the games market and it only manged to sell 120-130 million units.   Key Points 2. *The novelty of the Wii's motion sensing controller won't carry it for 10 years. 3. *In about 3 years the Wii will be heavily dependant on 3rd party titles after Ninty have used their Mario and Zelda cards for this gen. 4. * If Microsoft and Sony get the motion sensing control right then that'll further cut the Wii's lifespan. 5. *The casual market is unpredicatble , they're always looking for the newest and most innovative thing , the Wii can't be that for the next 8 years. 6. * The Wii already looks dated even in comparison to PS3 , 360 launch titles , whats gonna happen @ the end of this generation , games can only be optimised for the Wii so much. 7. *If MS and Sony deside to release XBOX 720 and PS4 respectivley then it's basicly game over for the Wii , both are likely to have motion sensing implemented well or some other sort of Next gen control scheme , both will have georgeous HD graphics and both are likely to cost alot less.     8. The only way Nintnendo can continue selling is by releasing a Nintendo Wii 2 , and there's not alot of room for improvment , it doesn't need HD graphics (doing so will make it cost similar to PS4,720) , they can do a hard drive this gen , they can improve their online this gen. The only thing I could imagine would sell Wii 2 was another killer controller.

It's good when someone brings key points out. Especially when they fit only the bingo board, as Rol said.
Let me show you why:

1. Yes, and the NES had just as big share as PS2, and managed to sell only 60 million. That's the whole idea in expanding the market.

2. It doesn't have to, as i pointed out earlier, averaging to Nintendos FY 09 expectations for now on, Wii would reach 200M at the age of 8,5 years. Besides, the novelty have worn off ages ago, Wii is selling because of its software, which by the way is proven by Wiis software sales.

3. Yes, just like the DS, it will have the supreme 3rd party support by then. Besides, looking at the number of IP:s Nintendo has, they don't have problems using them or invent new ones, which is proved by "Wii series", Brain Trainings, Nintendogs, etc.

4. Well yes, like Sony already has. The thing is, that in order to maintain advantage of this feature, you need to have software supporting it by default. Besides, as long as Wii has the price advantage (which it has lost to 360, but it's nothing that Nintendo couldn't counter when needed), it will be the number one choice over the competition with similar features.

5. It can't be the newest, but it can be the most innovative. And the leading console have never died when competition have arrived. It still exists for people who like to have cheap fun. Just like PS2, which isn't newest or innovative. And since the casual market is unpredictable, how can you say it's looking for the newest and most innovative? That's right, because it isn't. It's very predictable. Now the market, which is hard to predict, is the previous non-gamers (who will still be adopting Wiis, when next generation has started), and that's the reason why the best way to look at them is to compare how the previous non-gamers have entered the market, which would indicate 200M lifetime sales for Wii.

6. In comparision PS360, yes for most part. In comparision to last generation, no it doesn't.
Wii is for gaming in new ways, which Wii Remote makes possible, the old type of games and gaming new types of games, that Wii Remote makes possible. So the graphics does matter a lot less than it does with PS360. Now, this obviously was a point without a point.

7. Now you are talking about selling to early adopters, which already have bought their consoles years ago, so it doesn't have much impact on late adopters, group, which is currently getting PS2:s for its cheap price and large library of games.

8. Yes, it's the only way to keep selling to the early adopters. Doesn't effect the late adopters (the Wiis target audience at the time). When Wiis successor enters the market, it has The Brand, which was the reason for PS2 winning by default, the industry taking PS3 victory for granted and why SNES managed to gain enough momentum from day 1 to eventually beat Megadrive.

@Rol: But weren't the games released by Sony on PSX? Which makes them 1st party releases.

@Mummelman: HD is the future, there's no denying about that, but the thing is, that what's more important than HD, is the content available. I don't think Brokeback Mountain would be any better in HD, or your favourite movie any worse in SD.
The tech in the market is getting ready for HD, but the market as a whole doesn't feel it's ready for HD.
And the DVD:s biggest advantage over VHS was the same thing Wii has over its competition; a new and easier way to watch video.

Million said: Shissy said: 115 million max. Likely around 85-100m.   I'd agree , 200 million is an absurd number.   1. The PS2 had around 75-80% of the games market and it only manged to sell 120-130 million units.   Key Points 2. *The novelty of the Wii's motion sensing controller won't carry it for 10 years. 3. *In about 3 years the Wii will be heavily dependant on 3rd party titles after Ninty have used their Mario and Zelda cards for this gen. 4. * If Microsoft and Sony get the motion sensing control right then that'll further cut the Wii's lifespan. 5. *The casual market is unpredicatble , they're always looking for the newest and most innovative thing , the Wii can't be that for the next 8 years. 6. * The Wii already looks dated even in comparison to PS3 , 360 launch titles , whats gonna happen @ the end of this generation , games can only be optimised for the Wii so much. 7. *If MS and Sony deside to release XBOX 720 and PS4 respectivley then it's basicly game over for the Wii , both are likely to have motion sensing implemented well or some other sort of Next gen control scheme , both will have georgeous HD graphics and both are likely to cost alot less.     8. The only way Nintnendo can continue selling is by releasing a Nintendo Wii 2 , and there's not alot of room for improvment , it doesn't need HD graphics (doing so will make it cost similar to PS4,720) , they can do a hard drive this gen , they can improve their online this gen. The only thing I could imagine would sell Wii 2 was another killer controller.

It's good when someone brings key points out. Especially when they fit only the bingo board, as Rol said.
Let me show you why:

1. Yes, and the NES had just as big share as PS2, and managed to sell only 60 million. That's the whole idea in expanding the market.

2. It doesn't have to, as i pointed out earlier, averaging to Nintendos FY 09 expectations for now on, Wii would reach 200M at the age of 8,5 years. Besides, the novelty have worn off ages ago, Wii is selling because of its software, which by the way is proven by Wiis software sales.

3. Yes, just like the DS, it will have the supreme 3rd party support by then. Besides, looking at the number of IP:s Nintendo has, they don't have problems using them or invent new ones, which is proved by "Wii series", Brain Trainings, Nintendogs, etc.

4. Well yes, like Sony already has. The thing is, that in order to maintain advantage of this feature, you need to have software supporting it by default. Besides, as long as Wii has the price advantage (which it has lost to 360, but it's nothing that Nintendo couldn't counter when needed), it will be the number one choice over the competition with similar features.

5. It can't be the newest, but it can be the most innovative. And the leading console have never died when competition have arrived. It still exists for people who like to have cheap fun. Just like PS2, which isn't newest or innovative. And since the casual market is unpredictable, how can you say it's looking for the newest and most innovative? That's right, because it isn't. It's very predictable. Now the market, which is hard to predict, is the previous non-gamers (who will still be adopting Wiis, when next generation has started), and that's the reason why the best way to look at them is to compare how the previous non-gamers have entered the market, which would indicate 200M lifetime sales for Wii.

6. In comparision PS360, yes for most part. In comparision to last generation, no it doesn't.
Wii is for gaming in new ways, which Wii Remote makes possible, the old type of games and gaming new types of games, that Wii Remote makes possible. So the graphics does matter a lot less than it does with PS360. Now, this obviously was a point without a point.

7. Now you are talking about selling to early adopters, which already have bought their consoles years ago, so it doesn't have much impact on late adopters, group, which is currently getting PS2:s for its cheap price and large library of games.

8. Yes, it's the only way to keep selling to the early adopters. Doesn't effect the late adopters (the Wiis target audience at the time). When Wiis successor enters the market, it has The Brand, which was the reason for PS2 winning by default, the industry taking PS3 victory for granted and why SNES managed to gain enough momentum from day 1 to eventually beat Megadrive.

@Rol: But weren't the games released by Sony on PSX? Which makes them 1st party releases.

@Mummelman: HD is the future, there's no denying about that, but the thing is, that what's more important than HD, is the content available. I don't think Brokeback Mountain would be any better in HD, or your favourite movie any worse in SD.
The tech in the market is getting ready for HD, but the market as a whole doesn't feel it's ready for HD.
And the DVD:s biggest advantage over VHS was the same thing Wii has over its competition; a new and easier way to watch video.

Million said: Shissy said: 115 million max. Likely around 85-100m.   * The Wii already looks dated even in comparison to PS3 , 360 launch titles , whats gonna happen @ the end of this generation , games can only be optimised for the Wii so much.

I think it's looked dated since day 1.  Yet it has doubled the sales of PS3 that released at basically the same time and has blown past 360 which released a year earlier.  I would have thought that would have shown anyone that could think straight that graphics are irrelevant when it comes to sales.

You pathetic wimps don't believe in the true power!

100 Billion, absolute worst case scenario.

10000 Quadrillion Trillion, pessimistic.

100000000000^1 Nonillion, not even close.

Wii is elected Supreme Chief Overlord Emperor of Everything for selling the largest number known to man, most likely.

@Rol: If so, my mistake. I recalled that they'd been Sonys releases (although developed by others) when they hit the PSX.

I see a lot of assumptions about why the Wii can not sell particularly well repeated every day; most of these assumptions are based on the demographics that are buying the Wii, and why they will abandon the Wii as soon as the PS3 or XBox 360 become cheap enough. Here is my (incomplete) list of the demographics that are buying the Wii and why this will not change durring the entire generation:

1) Families

An interesting milestone was passed in the last few years that nobody decided to take note of, home videogame systems are over 25 years old. What this means is that many/most of the gamers who owned an Atari 2600/Collecovision/Intellivision or a NES are at an age where they have children who are (approximately) the same age as when they started playing videogames. These parents want to play games with their children but the dedicated focus on very complicated (for a child under 13) and overly "Mature" games from Microsoft and Sony has alienated this demographic.

2) Social Gamers

Social gamers are a rarely talked about demographic inside of the gaming community; they tend to be far less like the stereotypical gamer, and favor simpler local multiplayer games over the complicated single player/online-multiplayer games that the "Core" gamer demographic loves. Even though the systems do support local multiplayer, there are few games which are approachable and enjoyable as local multiplayer experiences on the PS3 and XBox 360; in contrast the Wii has a massive library of these games which is growing every day.

3) The Nintendo gamers

Realistically, there are about 10 Million gamers who will buy almost any system that is made by Nintendo ...

4) Lapsed Gamers

There is a (very) large group of gamers who have given up on gaming over the years because they stopped having the time to put towards videogames, and the types of games they enjoyed either changed or stopped being made; there seems to be a revival of some of these genres on the Wii, the old games are available on the virtual console, and there are games which (may) have a similar appeal on the Wii as well as Wii Ware.

5) Blue-Ocean Gamers

A far better term than "Casual" gamers (because all demographic of gamer can be casual), the Blue-Ocean gamer is being targeted almost exclusively by Nintendo. Microsoft and Sony's attempts to lure these gamers are basically like coloring a toy gun pink to attract girls to play with this toy gun; they focus on the superficial elements of the games Nintendo produces and assumes that this will attract these gamers.

6) Core Gamers

Core gamers tend to own most systems that  have enough enjoyable games to justify the purchase price of the system; as time goes on, and the Wii has more games as well as a lower price there are few core gamers who will avoid this system.

@HS: Great list, but i'd like to add, that "core gamer", is the type of gamer that's buying the most games -> keeping the industry alive. So, if suddenly Wii Sports type of games would be the best selling games in general, the "core gamers" would be the group that plays Wii Sports type of games.

You know what we could argue about this all day , but I can't be bothered honestly.

If you think Wii-Fit and Motion sensing controls is going to enable to bring the Wii to around 1.8 X what the PS2 sold in it's life time.

Then fine , I could care less , reality will kick your asses harded than I could.

Million said: You know what we could argue about this all day , but I can't be bothered honestly. If you think Wii-Fit and Motion sensing controls is going to enable to bring the Wii to around 1.8 X what the PS2 sold in it's life time. Then fine , I could care less , reality will kick your asses harded than I could.

Reality really kicked the asses of the people who said the Wii would do as well as it has so far, hasn't it? Oh right, only John Lucas had realised it, and people still call him an idiot.

Judging from your arguments (I'm barely resisting the urge to include "condescending quote marks") it looks like you still don't understand what the appeal of the Wii is, and probably don't even want to. But hey, don't let knowing that stop you from claiming victory and walking away. We'll try to help you see the light every chance we get. =P

Million said: You know what we could argue about this all day , but I can't be bothered honestly. If you think Wii-Fit and Motion sensing controls is going to enable to bring the Wii to around 1.8 X what the PS2 sold in it's life time. Then fine , I could care less , reality will kick your asses harded than I could.

Well now, these are just historical facts about market expansions and so far nothing is proving it won't happen.
I think nobody is expecting Wii Fit or motion sensing to sell Wii to 200M, the thing that is going to sell Wii, is the software. Sure Wii Fit works for its part, but the thing is, that what the Wiis controls does, is user interface which is easier to adapt for most people. Wii is just a tool for its software, not the main product.