Wii, 200 million lifetime?

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Million said:

Shissy said:
115 million max. Likely around 85-100m.

 

I'd agree , 200 million is an absurd number.

 

1. The PS2 had around 75-80% of the games market and it only manged to sell 120-130 million units.

 

Key Points

2. *The novelty of the Wii's motion sensing controller won't carry it for 10 years.

3. *In about 3 years the Wii will be heavily dependant on 3rd party titles after Ninty have used their Mario and Zelda cards for this gen.

4. * If Microsoft and Sony get the motion sensing control right then that'll further cut the Wii's lifespan.

5. *The casual market is unpredicatble , they're always looking for the newest and most innovative thing , the Wii can't be that for the next 8 years.

6. * The Wii already looks dated even in comparison to PS3 , 360 launch titles , whats gonna happen @ the end of this generation , games can only be optimised for the Wii so much.

7. *If MS and Sony deside to release XBOX 720 and PS4 respectivley then it's basicly game over for the Wii , both are likely to have motion sensing implemented well or some other sort of Next gen control scheme , both will have georgeous HD graphics and both are likely to cost alot less.

 

 

8. The only way Nintnendo can continue selling is by releasing a Nintendo Wii 2 , and there's not alot of room for improvment , it doesn't need HD graphics (doing so will make it cost similar to PS4,720) , they can do a hard drive this gen , they can improve their online this gen. The only thing I could imagine would sell Wii 2 was another killer controller. 

It's good when someone brings key points out. Especially when they fit only the bingo board, as Rol said.
Let me show you why:

1. Yes, and the NES had just as big share as PS2, and managed to sell only 60 million. That's the whole idea in expanding the market.

2. It doesn't have to, as i pointed out earlier, averaging to Nintendos FY 09 expectations for now on, Wii would reach 200M at the age of 8,5 years. Besides, the novelty have worn off ages ago, Wii is selling because of its software, which by the way is proven by Wiis software sales.

3. Yes, just like the DS, it will have the supreme 3rd party support by then. Besides, looking at the number of IP:s Nintendo has, they don't have problems using them or invent new ones, which is proved by "Wii series", Brain Trainings, Nintendogs, etc.

4. Well yes, like Sony already has. The thing is, that in order to maintain advantage of this feature, you need to have software supporting it by default. Besides, as long as Wii has the price advantage (which it has lost to 360, but it's nothing that Nintendo couldn't counter when needed), it will be the number one choice over the competition with similar features.

5. It can't be the newest, but it can be the most innovative. And the leading console have never died when competition have arrived. It still exists for people who like to have cheap fun. Just like PS2, which isn't newest or innovative. And since the casual market is unpredictable, how can you say it's looking for the newest and most innovative? That's right, because it isn't. It's very predictable. Now the market, which is hard to predict, is the previous non-gamers (who will still be adopting Wiis, when next generation has started), and that's the reason why the best way to look at them is to compare how the previous non-gamers have entered the market, which would indicate 200M lifetime sales for Wii.

6. In comparision PS360, yes for most part. In comparision to last generation, no it doesn't.
Wii is for gaming in new ways, which Wii Remote makes possible, the old type of games and gaming new types of games, that Wii Remote makes possible. So the graphics does matter a lot less than it does with PS360. Now, this obviously was a point without a point.

7. Now you are talking about selling to early adopters, which already have bought their consoles years ago, so it doesn't have much impact on late adopters, group, which is currently getting PS2:s for its cheap price and large library of games.

8. Yes, it's the only way to keep selling to the early adopters. Doesn't effect the late adopters (the Wiis target audience at the time). When Wiis successor enters the market, it has The Brand, which was the reason for PS2 winning by default, the industry taking PS3 victory for granted and why SNES managed to gain enough momentum from day 1 to eventually beat Megadrive.

@Rol: But weren't the games released by Sony on PSX? Which makes them 1st party releases.

@Mummelman: HD is the future, there's no denying about that, but the thing is, that what's more important than HD, is the content available. I don't think Brokeback Mountain would be any better in HD, or your favourite movie any worse in SD.
The tech in the market is getting ready for HD, but the market as a whole doesn't feel it's ready for HD.
And the DVD:s biggest advantage over VHS was the same thing Wii has over its competition; a new and easier way to watch video.