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Forums - Gaming - Prediction: PS6 won't sell over 50 million units lifetime.

 

How many PS6's will be sold lifetime?

Over 100 million. 8 10.67%
 
90 million to 100 million. 8 10.67%
 
80 million to 89 million 8 10.67%
 
70 million to 79 million 11 14.67%
 
60 million to 69 million 6 8.00%
 
50 million to 59 million 7 9.33%
 
40 million to 49 million 15 20.00%
 
30 million to 39 million 5 6.67%
 
20 million to 29 million 1 1.33%
 
under 20 million 6 8.00%
 
Total:75
BonfiresDown said:
ConciousMan said:

You're talking about the best case scenario. But, what I am seeing is the start of worldwide economic crisis, unseen since the Great Depression. Remember also that Trump needs to remain in power, to avoid imprisonment. His presidency might end up with more conflicts especially over the Greenland and with Canada. This won't end well and console sales will tank for a couple years if civil war scenario comes true. The best case scenario for all PS6 branded  consoles is to reach 50 millions.

Apparently civil war is a realistic scenario but PS6 selling over 50M is impossible.

If they launch the console at $899 and handheld at $799, then I don't think both will sell well. Many might choose to buy $549 Switch 2 with 4nm SOC and better LED screen instead. Unfortunately, wealthy men and corporations will lead to depression, but it was are preplanned so they would try to control Senate and government more directly.



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It will sell anywhere between 20-80 million depending on market conditions. But this isn't what decides Sony's fate as a platform holder. What makes a digital-only future particularly dangerous for Sony is that they may start losing their existing players, as even the PS5 is turning digital-only. Basically: we're getting a digital-only future TWO generations earlier than expected (or a gen and a half if you will).

PS6's value in keeping the Playstation ecosystem strong is overplayed. If the PS5 (and PS4 to an extent) remain active, then PS6 crashing wouldn't have a huge impact on Somy's gaming business. The link between new hardware and a healthy business is too weak now. The Switch 2 is destroying the PS5 currently, but Nintendo's financials are much weaker. But relatively pro-consumer choices from Nintendo vs persistent anti-consumer choices from Sony may translate to a future where Nintendo dominates them in almost all metrics, it's hard to say where this is going and how much will change even a year from now.



Manlytears said:

Nah... They will do much better than 50m. Especially if you combine PS6 and PS6 portable.

Any PS6 that is weaker than PS5 Pro is a PS6 in name only. If Sony were to release a PS6 with the specs of a Vita would you be back in this thread years later to claim my prediction was wrong? Or would you have the sense to admit that such a device is in no way a PS6? 



Cerebralbore101 said:
Manlytears said:

Nah... They will do much better than 50m. Especially if you combine PS6 and PS6 portable.

Any PS6 that is weaker than PS5 Pro is a PS6 in name only. If Sony were to release a PS6 with the specs of a Vita would you be back in this thread years later to claim my prediction was wrong? Or would you have the sense to admit that such a device is in no way a PS6? 

If it's built around the same architecture as PS6 and shares its compete library (including distant future exclusives), then it's a PS6.

The specs don't matter. The handheld will have some features and specs that are more advanced or better than a PS5 Pro (more RAM, RDNA5, Zen 6) and others weaker than a base PS5. You can't expect a handheld to beat the PS5 Pro performance overall though. Are you suggesting that we should combine it with PS5 or just treat it as its own thing?



Sure, I’d like to see that.



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Kyuu said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Any PS6 that is weaker than PS5 Pro is a PS6 in name only. If Sony were to release a PS6 with the specs of a Vita would you be back in this thread years later to claim my prediction was wrong? Or would you have the sense to admit that such a device is in no way a PS6? 

If it's built around the same architecture as PS6 and shares its compete library (including distant future exclusives), then it's a PS6.

The specs don't matter. The handheld will have some features and specs that are more advanced or better than a PS5 Pro (more RAM, RDNA5, Zen 6) and others weaker than a base PS5. You can't expect a handheld to beat the PS5 Pro performance overall though. Are you suggesting that we should combine it with PS5 or just treat it as its own thing?

Regardless of how you want to count it it's obvious that selling a certain amount of combined console/handheld SKUs is not the same amount of success as selling the same number of dedicated home console SKUs. 

For example: Selling 35 million Xbox Series X units in a world where Series S doesn't exist is much more successful than selling a combined 35 million Series X and S units. 

Edit: Also is a device that plays all PS6 games at 540p and 20 FPS still a PS6? How about one playing at 240p and 10 FPS? Where's the cutoff? 

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - 6 days ago

Sounds more like wishful thinking than critical analysis



Cerebralbore101 said:
Kyuu said:

If it's built around the same architecture as PS6 and shares its compete library (including distant future exclusives), then it's a PS6.

The specs don't matter. The handheld will have some features and specs that are more advanced or better than a PS5 Pro (more RAM, RDNA5, Zen 6) and others weaker than a base PS5. You can't expect a handheld to beat the PS5 Pro performance overall though. Are you suggesting that we should combine it with PS5 or just treat it as its own thing?

Regardless of how you want to count it it's obvious that selling a certain amount of combined console/handheld SKUs is not the same amount of success as selling the same number of dedicated home console SKUs. 

For example: Selling 35 million Xbox Series X units in a world where Series S doesn't exist is much more successful than selling a combined 35 million Series X and S units. 

Edit: Also is a device that plays all PS6 games at 540p and 20 FPS still a PS6? How about one playing at 240p and 10 FPS? Where's the cutoff? 

I mean the PS6 handheld and home console might be similarly priced unlike Series S and X where one cost up to twice as much as the other. They might introduce a cheaper version of the handheld in the form of "Vita TV", and I suspect Nintendo will do the same. But yes, Series X selling 35 million alone would have been more successful in a sense, and Switch selling 160~ million would have been more impressive in the scenario where the Switch Lite didn't exist. This applies to anything. If you think the PS6 home console alone may be able to come close to 50 million... you're being too optimistic imo! I think the hardware industry is fucked. If prices keep rising then stabilize in 2028 as analysts expect, then I don't think PS6 handheld and home console combined will even reach 40 million. Most fans will be happy with their PS5's and maybe PS4's and find no need to upgrade, and some of them will be so pissed at Sony's digital bullshit and exit the ecosystem entirely.

240p at 10 fps isn't gonna happen on optimized settings. The PS6 family of hardware will have long since been abandoned before games have such high demands on their lower settings. For many years, PS6 will play games designed with Series S and Switch 2 level hardware in mind (albeit with Series S versions looking hilariously blurry), or at worst PS5 level hardware. The handheld should be able to run anything released in its generation and possibly even most games from the generation that follows. Turning off PathTracing alone may be enough for it to run most other settings close to the home console version but at lower fps and resolutions. And if it isn't enough, then they can lower native and output resolution further and/or dial down a few other settings. I think the scalability range will increase dramatically when RT and PT become common, so the need to lower resolution to 240p to then only get 10fps will never come and will remain purely theoretical. 480p (upscaled to 1080p+ via PSSR2) at 20fps (during busy scenes) may occur, but it isn't a big deal.

Any hardware can theoretically struggle at low resolutions if the workload is high enough. But realistically, the PS6 handheld should be fine running over 99% of PS6 games.



Tober said:

I see a decline in the traditional regions NA, Europe and Japan. But it is hard to see what other regions are going to do.

If Sony can truly break into markets like China or India, just through the sheer size of the population it has potential for many many million consoles more.

That ship has long since sailed off. China (where I live) is dominated by phone/ipad, then PC games, then Switch gaming and far behind that PS. Dont think anyone knows what an xbox is. Also, almost no one here uses a TV. Most houses you rent now dont even have a tv anymore, the only ones who use TV's are all the grandma and grandpas and even that is shifting to smart phones.

Also, China's ecconomy has been going down hill ever since covid and will most likely continue its decent for a very very long time. 


If the PS5 has been this little of an impact here, I cant imagine what double the price machine that has to be hooked up to the TV to play games will sell.



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Ashadelo said:
Tober said:

I see a decline in the traditional regions NA, Europe and Japan. But it is hard to see what other regions are going to do.

If Sony can truly break into markets like China or India, just through the sheer size of the population it has potential for many many million consoles more.

That ship has long since sailed off. China (where I live) is dominated by phone/ipad, then PC games, then Switch gaming and far behind that PS. Dont think anyone knows what an xbox is. Also, almost no one here uses a TV. Most houses you rent now dont even have a tv anymore, the only ones who use TV's are all the grandma and grandpas and even that is shifting to smart phones.

Also, China's ecconomy has been going down hill ever since covid and will most likely continue its decent for a very very long time. 


If the PS5 has been this little of an impact here, I cant imagine what double the price machine that has to be hooked up to the TV to play games will sell.

According to the VGChartz estimates the PS5 was selling high in Non-Japan Asia before the price rise. Significantly outselling the Switch 2. It had been a major source of growth for the PS5 generation.