Switch 2 and PS5 sales are very close in the Americas. They are kind of close worldwide too.

Strong month for the PS5 only being about 15% down YoY and almost exactly flat in Europe and it had a strong year too being less than a million behind the PS4's 2018 despite it getting a price increase. Assuming no more delays GTA 6 will help it have another strong holiday season this year though January-October should be down significantly especially if another price increase happens in that period but it'll still have a good shot of beating the PS4's 2019 so things will continue being smooth for the PS5. Another price would suck but with around 90m PS5's already sold it's late enough in its life to where it wouldn't be that big of a deal.

The Switch 2 had a good month but it was behind the Switch 1's first December which isn't ideal and it had an incredible first year overall but the recent slowdown is a concern considering it should get a price increase this year so 2026 will be a huge test to see how large demand will be for it long term. I expect it'll outdo the Switch 1's 2018 but not by that much, current market conditions could hold it back significantly. And the Switch 1's December wasn't as big of a drop compared to November but it was still huge and overall it had a great start last year but has slowed down massively with the launch of the Switch 2 doing way worse than the 3DS post successor so far so hopes of 160m are all but dead at this point. Still an impressive year considering its age but it should less than 2m this year.

For Xbox there isn't much to say other than selling only 400k compared to 2.4m in December 2018 for the Xbox One is extremely rough. It did somewhat better than expected in December but it had a horrendous year overall still and its sales will only get even more pitiful this year with another price increase on the way with it probably falling into the 1-1.5m range. Overall it was a good year for video game console sales thanks in large part to the Switch 2's record shattering launch but Xbox hardware basically dying and rough market conditions held things back a lot and 2026 is gonna be even worse for those things, particularly in the US for the latter it looks like.

Good to see that a lot of the concern and dooming over Switch 2's November was unwarranted, and unless VGChartz is way off, it's tracking to top Nintendo's 19m forecast for the FY, and has already exceeded their original forecast of 15m.

Just 438k in December for the Xbox is insanely bad, but that's business as usual at this point.

Xbox Series console sales are terrible, but one thing is it isn't anywhere near as dire of a situation as people say it is. Xbox as a software company isn't going anywhere with the number of studios they own even if Xbox hardware becomes niche and only ends up selling 10m - 20m per generation going forward.

I am surprised with their lack of support for the Switch 2 with how much they are releasing on PS5. Kiln feels like a perfect game for the Switch 2. Though, I guess PS5 and Xbox Series X are very similar spec wise so easier to port games to that. 

Oh I wouldn't say Xbox's gaming business in general is in trouble, they're raking in cash selling the likes of Forza to Playstation players, it's more just their console business that's on its deathbed.

MS support for Switch 2 is starting to come to life with games like Indiana Jones and South of Midnight announced for this year already; I feel like they're just weirdly late to the party but will eventually go all in.

Thanks for all your hard work on this month's numbers as usual trunks!

Yeah, Xbox is making bank with selling their games on PlayStation. 

I guess Microsoft didn't get Switch 2 dev kits until after the console came out. Indiana Jones on it is a big surprise given its visuals. Makes me think just about any game is possible with enough optimization. 

Lets see how good our estimates are one Nintendo and Sony release their earnings report at the beginning of February. As usual we will do any necessary adjustments. 

Yeah I would also guess that devkits didn't arrive in time, as other third parties complained about. Porting takes time, so even if they got them say in the second half of last year, the games won't be ready yet.

You guys do a great job, even if it's not an exact science. Also keen to see where Nintendo's report lands.

@trunkswd

Regarding quarter reports, for when Microsofts next quarter report arrives:

Are you taking into account that Microsoft's Xbox hardware revenue includes revenue coming from accessoires, too? If yes - what's the percentage of revenue you're applying to them? If not - why not?

Easy to understand why, Xbox only cares about the US market, and Switch 2 only has a 4,4M user base in the US as of yet, support will only come if/when Switch 2 has a large user base in the US.

We do take into account but we don't have an exact percentage. Plus even if Microsoft counted accessories separately they report how much revenue is up/down and not units sold. 

Plus compared to last year the Xbox Series is roughly 30% more expensive. Hypothetically, if say Microsoft reports hardware revenue is down 50% year-on-year with the average price being 30% higher the number of units sold is likely down another 30% on top of the 50% for a drop of 65% in units sold. 

This isn't an exact science as we get very little data from Microsoft themselves. With Circana data we should be within our margin of error in the US and historically the US is ~50% of worldwide sales for Xbox. Though at this point we have the US at a higher percent of overall sales with the data we have showing an even bigger drop in sales in a lot of other places. In 2025 we have worldwide estimates at 2.55 million, while US estimates are at 1.40 million, which is a 55% marketshare.

I would love for Microsoft to give the actual number of Xbox Series shipped like Nintendo and Sony do.