Circana data for Black Friday Week in the USA. Unit Sales:

PS5: 47%

Switch 2 : 24%

Nex Playground: 14%

This leaves 15% for Xbox Series, Switch 1 and anything else.

Hopefully we get more information such as YoY change soon.

Nintendo made a fairly big mistake in having 3 smaller games late 2025 (Hyrule Warriors, Kirby, Metroid). They should have gone for Switch 2017 strategy when they had Mario Odyssey as the holiday title. And it was the perfect opportunity because its Super Mario's 40th anniversary this year as well. Smaller games don't lead to people wanting to buy a new console. This was a failure of planning on Nintendo's part this year.

When all big third party games skip the system, that means Nintendo themselves need to step up with big releases, and they failed to do so. I fear this mistake combined with Sony price cuts in the US and Europe will lead to a bad holiday for Switch 2 in western markets. Lack of big first and third party releases for the Switch 2 has led to lower mind share than a new system should have on the market.

Yikes! NS2 is really struggling against the discounted PS5. I mean, this is definitely 100% normal behavior for a system in its first year, being that (again) new devices aren’t receiving the same discounts as the five year old system. But for how unprecedented Switch 2 had been up until this point, these results are making me question my expectations for the early life of this system, i.e. not as front-loaded as I had anticipated.

Are we looking at a real chance that this PS5 price cut actually makes the Switch 2 miss its 19M forecast? Sales aren't looking good either in Europe or in the US.

Nintendo shouldn't have raised the forecast before the holiday period, they took a big risk with that and investors will kill them if they fail that forecast.

I mean we could just copy and paste the Euro sales thread with the same comments here because I feel like the points talked about are gonna be the same

Switch 1 is probably like ~5%.
The surprise here is the "Nex Playground" and the Switch 2 doing so well..... esp the Nex Playground.

Its like 200$? and only has like 5 games (got no clue.. what game support is like) , that are like mobile games / wii games,
where you wave your arms around and stuff (kinect like).

Lol.... how did that take 14% marketshare.

I don't think it has much to do with ps5. Whether switch 2 hits the 19m target or not just depends on if Nintendo makes it attractive enough to buyers. They have had a very good start and they are sure to have a much stronger Christmas than BF as they usually do. PS and Nintendo continue to have little impact on each others sales. The Switch 1 didn't hurt the PS4, the PS5 didn't hurt the Switch 1 and the Switch 2 wont hurt the PS5, vice-versa.

For anyone wondering we won't be tracking the NEX Playground. 

Also this does give us a ratio of sales even if we don't have exact numbers. Switch 2 is 51.06% of PS5 sales, while Switch 1 + Xbox Series combined is at most 31.91% of PS5 and 62.50% of Switch 2. I say at most as that doesn't take into account PC handhelds, which Circana tracks for their hardware numbers.

Edit:

Here are possible Black Friday week sales depending on PS5 (Our estimates has PS5 at 622.8K last year for Black Friday week):

• PS5: 600K
• NS2: 306.4K
• XS+NS1: <191.5K
• If XS is 2x NS1:
  • XS: <126.3K
  • NS1: <62.2K

• PS5: 650K
• NS2: 331.9K
• XS+NS1: <207.4K
• If XS is 2x NS1:
  • XS: <138.2K
  • NS1: <69.2K

• PS5: 700K
• NS2: 357.4K
• XS+NS1: <223.4K
• If XS is 2x NS1:
  • XS: <148.9K
  • NS1: <94.5K

I think the split of those ~15% is like ~5% switch 1, and ~10% Series S/X.

Which means the PS5 outsold the Xbox S/X by a factor of like x5 this week..... in the US.

Also yeah.... I get the no tracking of the NEX playground.
Like that is barely what I would call a console. 
Its more like a kids toy that has a few games on it.

With CoD underperforming and Xbox hardware being nowhere so far this holiday, the next MS Quarterly report will be interesting to say the least.