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Forums - Sales - August 2025 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Switch 3rd Month - Americas, Europe + Japan Out Now

Shadow1980 said:
trunkswd said:

Yeah hopefully we get more concrete data with the September data that could help with adjusting the August estimates. At worst we will be getting the quarterly earnings reports at the end of this month and early next month.

Upcoming earnings report of the big 3:

Speaking of concrete data, looks like we won't even be getting rough estimates from the usual sources. Mat from NPD elected to not share anything useful this month outside the official report.

I hate how U.S. sales data has gotten more opaque over the past 10-15 years. I mean, Famitsu, a freaking video game magazine, has been putting out weekly sales data for free since the 90s (and weekly sales data tells us a lot more than monthly does). But that's Japan. I guess here in the good old US of A, everything gaming related has to come with a price tag today. The game industry itself is notoriously money-grubby and opaque, so I guess that tracks (remember when cosmetic items were free and could be unlocked through gameplay?). The film industry has been reporting film grosses for decades. TV has Nielsen ratings (though that's becoming increasingly useless as streaming replaces linear TV and data becomes less available; I guess Nielsen never figured out how to restructure their surveys to account for streaming). RIAA and other music industry groups have their certifications, and we know how much most notable albums sell in multiple countries, at least approximately. Even NPD used to give out console sales data and at least Top 10 software data every month for free many years ago.

I mean, I get the rationale from NPD/Circana's perspective. They're a giant for-profit market research company, not a video game magazine. If American plebs knew how much their favorite consoles sold and could get the data for free, then why would any company buy the data for ten grand a pop every month (or however much a report is)? NPD/Circana enjoys their monopoly and takes full advantage of it. With an industry like video games, I guess getting sales data for free was too good to last. That's crapitalism for you. I just hope the film industry doesn't follow suit and puts data about film grosses behind a paywall only companies and people with very deep pockets can afford and where they and any employees privy to the reports must swear an oath of secrecy (i.e., a "non-disclosure agreement" in lawyer-speak). I also hope Famitsu doesn't go out of business, because that's about all we get these days outside of quarterly reports (and even that's not always published publicly; MS has been cagey about their data for over a decade now).

People do have legitimate reasons for caring about sales data. It isn't just a nerdy obsession or fodder for some pointless argument (though it can be and often is those things). For example, people considering investing in an expensive piece of gaming hardware might want to know how well it's selling, because if it's a flop it might not get the full support of the industry, or it could be discontinued prematurely. People thinking about buying Console A might want to know if it's taken a sudden nose dive in sales in recent months as a result of certain shifts in corporate strategy. Or maybe they might want to know what game is most popular and therefore where the most players are when deciding on buying some social game ("Oh crap. That online game that looked cool tanked. I probably shouldn't buy it."). Conversely, it can be used to highlight a well-regarded title that's struggling and maybe put more eyeballs on it ("Hey. You wanted more games like this? If they keep flopping then more won't get made. Go out and buy this one!").

It's like how if someone is considering investing time into a TV show, they might want to know how popular it is, because if its ratings are lackluster then it might not be renewed for another season and therefore it might not get a proper ending if it was planned to run for multiple seasons, and that person may feel they wasted their time as a result. Or for something where a lot of money is on the line, if they're in the market for a new vehicle, they might want to know how popular a given model is, because it's entirely possible an automobile they're considering might be very unpopular and therefore at risk of being discontinued, which might not bode well for things like replacement parts being available in ten years time (or tech support being available, for cars with a bunch of electronic gadgets).

It's not just the suits in corporate that should be privy to how much their wares sell. Customers ought to be able to know more about the things they buy, for very practical reasons. They have time and money on the line as well, and may want to be better informed. I get something like a food company's recipes being confidential (can't have the competition knowing the exact nature of the Colonel's twelve herbs & spices). But sales data? Nah. Shouldn't be a commodity with a price tag of its own attached to it.

Anyway, it's stuff like this that makes me want to give up even discussing sales anymore. It's kinda pointless without getting much in the way of good data outside of Japan, which is a smaller part of the market than it used to be, especially for home consoles. Wouldn't be the first time I felt like giving up on it (for different reasons in the past).

Yeah I saw the comment from Circana's Mat Piscatella. At this point we have a decent enough of an idea of what sales have been from 2020 through 2024. Whether it is via leaks or getting enough info to get a decent idea of the year-on-year % changes.

With Mat saying from now on the order will be NS2 > PS5 > XS > NS1 and where sales have been that gives us a rough idea of where at least PS5, XS and NS1 are. We are probably talking XS sales down 50-60% year-on-year, NS1 sales down enough to be below XS, and PS5 sales down less. Circana also provides total hardware revenue, which does include PC handhelds, but we can use average selling price (ASP) to also help with the estimates. Ie. PS5 ASP is likely in the mid $500 range (~$550) with PS5 Pro ticking up the average a bit even if it is a small % of overall sales for it.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Around the Network

Link to the VGChartz article here.

2025 Worldwide Sales Comparison Charts Through August - Switch 2 vs PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch

Here we see data representing the sales through to consumers and change in sales performance of the four current platforms (Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch 1) over comparable periods for 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. Also shown is the market share for each of the consoles over the same periods.

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Market Share (Same Periods Covered)

2021 – (January 2022 to August 2022)

2022 – (January 2023 to August 2023)

2023 – (January 2024 to August 2024)

2024 – (January 2025 to August 2025)

"Year to date" sales for 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 sales are shown in series at the top of the table and then just below a comparison of 2025 versus 2024 and 2025 versus 2023 is displayed.  This provides an easy-to-view summary of all the data.

Total Sales and Market Share for Each Year

Nintendo

  • Nintendo Switch 2
    • 8.16 million units sold year-to-date
  • Nintendo Switch 1
    • 2.99 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 3.11 million units (-50.9%)

Sony

  • PlayStation 5
    • 7.06 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 1.81 million units (-20.4%)

Microsoft

  • Xbox Series X|S
    • 1.54 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 0.98 million units (-38.9%)

Note: VGChartz 2025, 2023, and 2022 estimates through August includes 34 weeks, while 2024 estimates includes 35 weeks.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

I'm surprised Xbox surpassed Switch in North America for this period given that Xbox Series is a sinking ship but in all fairness Switch 2 is a thing now. Also, Switch like Xbox is increasing in price in the Americas more severely than PlayStation recently has.
In any region, but especially in North America, Switch 2 and PS5 are much better purchases than Xbox Series or Switch.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:

I'm surprised Xbox surpassed Switch in North America for this period given that Xbox Series is a sinking ship but in all fairness Switch 2 is a thing now. Also, Switch like Xbox is increasing in price in the Americas more severely than PlayStation recently has.
In any region, but especially in North America, Switch 2 and PS5 are much better purchases than Xbox Series or Switch.

Circana Mat Piscatella said to expect the order of sales in the US to be NS2 > PS5 > XS > NS1 going forward and if there is a change in the order he will note it. This does suggest a decent enough gap between Xbox Series and Switch 1 sales. Though, we shall see what happens in October with the second price increase for the Xbox Series.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

September 2025 estimates will start being posted either tonight or tomorrow morning my time (EDT) with Japan, Asia, and MEA figures. Circana drops on Wednesday, so will try to get Americas and/or Europe up the same day. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.