With 30 weeks to go, Switch would need to average at least 6000 units per week to break past 1M. That should be more than doable for the console considering how well it's still holding just before it's successor's release.

Well, XBO sold so badly in Japan that the Virtual Boy outsold it there, it's actually pretty hard to do worse than that at all.

Looks like the PS5 is completely done in Japan after this year. I don't see how it can even reach 8 million. If the PS6 doesn't have a scalper problem in Japan I don't think it can sell 6 million. Playstation's downfall in Japan is a combination of PC gaming rise, Nintendo domination, and the decisions made during the PS4 and PS5 era.

Do you all think the Switch reach 1.5M this year?

At the start of the year I predicted 1.5M if the Switch 2 released in summer, admittedly June 5th is sooner than I thought they'd do it, but even so I think we're still on track. The Switch only has 680K left to hit the mark in 31 weeks, which translates to just under 22K per week and we're currently above that average. The weekly average will probably decrease once Switch 2 releases but I still expect it to hold somewhere between 15-20K per week and the difference will be made up during the holidays when Nintendo does some enticing sales/bundles to clear out whatever excess inventory of Switches they have remaining.