I don't know... the Switch shipped 2.74m by the end of March 2017, its launch month.  These pre-order numbers that are floating around for Switch 2 may seem abnormally high, but remember that Nintendo has alluded to a ton of pent-up stock to combat scalpers since last year:

https://www.ign.com/articles/nintendo-says-the-best-way-to-stop-switch-2-scalpers-is-to-make-enough-consoles-to-meet-customer-demand

It would not surprise me at all if the Switch 2 shipped north of 5m by the end of June.  From there, if it could keep up with Switch 1 shipments for its first year (over 10m shipped for calendar Q3 & Q4), that would put Switch at 15m+ by December 31st.

I think most of us are predicting Switch 2 to have the biggest launch of all time, but we'll know for sure what to expect in a few days.

Nintendo has forecast 15m Switch 2 shipments by March 31st 2026.

So we're probably looking at about 12-12.5m this calendar year. Zero chance they beat PlayStation with those numbers, they'd need to do a lot better than their forecast. But the shipment target they have set is basically in line with Switch 1.

Very shocked by Nintendo NSW2 forecast. Is this a case of creating artificial demand? (i.e., Are they providing less supply than demand would meet?)
In any case: Yeah, PS5 is going to win this calendar year. No shot PS5 underperforms 12-13mil.

More like a case of the manufacturing capacity simply not being there at first. Most of the Switch 2 components are EOL parts and won't exactly have very wide supply lines, and those that do will share them with smartphones and tablets.

We've been hearing reports of the Switch 2 being stockpiled so I was expecting them to be shipping more than the Switch 1 did, so it is a surprise to me also. But I don't think it's a case of "creating artificial demand", 15m shipped in the first 10 months is still very fast for a new console. It's just what they can manufacture at this point.

This reminds me of eight years ago when Nintendo had forecasted 10m for the fiscal year ending March 2018 and most people treated that as the ceiling instead of the floor which it actually was.

Why did Nintendo pick 15m for Switch 2? Because that's enough to make the point that they expect Switch 2 to sell faster than Switch 1 which shipped 14.86m during its first ten months. Obviously they can manufacture more than 15 million units and they will ship them, provided the demand is there. After all, Switch 1's forecast of 10m ended up being 15.05m during the aforementioned fiscal year.

Whether or not the demand will be there is up in the air, but 15m is not the ceiling for what Nintendo can ship during this fiscal year.

Thank you for the perspective.  Saves me from having to look up those stats.

Regarding this thread though, PS5 will win this for sure now barring Sony having to increase the PS5 price similar to Xbox because of tariffs.

This thread has always had the vibes of a BOLD tbone51 prediction, because it didn't only require Switch 2 to become the fastest-selling console ever, but also shatter the previous record by a huge margin.

But I have no idea what Xbox prices you are talking about in relation to tariffs. The USA is the only country worldwide that is stupid, but Xbox prices are seeing increases globally. That has nothing to do with tariffs, just like Sony's recent increase for PS5 prices in many countries outside of the USA had nothing to do with tariffs either.

Both Xbox and PS have increased in price globally throughout this generation, which is unrelated to tariffs.  But one thing that both Sony and Microsoft have been very careful about is not increasing the price of consoles in the US.  Xbox consoles are now ~$100 more in the US than they were before May.  That is almost certainly a tariff increase and something from which Sony will not be exempt either.

You make a very strong point with that first sentence. So, in other words, Nintendo has already got plans to produce and ship 15mil NSW2 systems before 3-31-2026. If production needs to be ramped up to meet unexpectedly large demand, then they will try to adjust accordingly.

Assuming pre-order data is being used to gauge consumer interest (i.e., to lead them to this 15mil figure), it is interesting, though, that 2.2mil JP pre-order requests would translate to 15mil F’26 WW…unless pre-order requests in EU/NA are not nearly as strong as we think? And Nintendo could absolutely have had more than 15mil ready for launch; they’ve been producing systems and expanding manufacturing plants for almost a year at this point, and have talked about for while their goal to combat shortages. Idk just seems like a weird situation.