Halo 3 should sell 2-3 million 360s during the holidays.

Remember that MS uses 2 very questionable means of counting sales. The 1st is that their sales are those to retailers not sales to end users. And 2nd, they actually count replacement consoles as sales which they most certainly are not.

If those replacement units are counted as sales, and all MS reports is sales to retaillers... Hmm... I'm starting to get a thought...

2 + 2 = ...?

Edit: remember that this site tracks only sell-through to customers.

Wii should hit 8 Million by June 15, and it will probably take the Xbox 360 until July 1 to hit 10 million. So basically, Wii will win.

The point is, we simply do not know. MS isnt going to give us the real numbers and their president keeps changing his story, from "within industry standards" to "I do not have that information at this time" when asked a few months later. Their own tech support agents openly admit there is a problem but they "are not authorized to give information and are being monitored." Also note that MS has extended the warranties on the 360s twice both because of complaints (& and probably lawsuits). The 1st extension was publicised openly. The 2nd you have to ask about directly. It was revealed to us by the sympathetic tech support agent who then refered us to another number that had connected us with someone that had the power to do exactly what he stated, extend the warranty a second time and get a replacement. If there was nothing wrong with the system and the breakdowns are just coincidence, why did they go through the trouble?

The PS2, at its worst, only needed to be kept clean to work (in most cases). Everyone of my friends and myself and a couple of family members have an old PS2, and they are all still working and none went defective. Ya, I had to clean mine a couple of times with some compressed air but thats about it.

The likelyhood of a 7/7 (or 8/8 if you count the defective replacement) coincidence is very unlikely, but yes it can be just that. My estimates are simply based on my experiences.

Lastly, it is my understanding that replacement consoles are indeed counted as sales by MS. i might be wrong here. Does anyone have any definitive information on this subject aside from hearsay? 

What do you think MS does with your broken 360? Throws it away? They refurb it and give it back to someone else who had a 360 fail (and that's part of the problem). Those refurbs are not counted as another 360 sold.

Besides, sites like this (and NPD, Media Create, etc) don't base their figures on what MS tells them, they collect the data from retailers.

the x360s that get replaced on the stores warranty are counted double, but since most systems are sent directly to microsoft. I would say only 5% of thetotal broken consoles get replaced in the store.

Yes but it wouldnt be a surprise if a console gets added to stock once it is fixed. They have to keep stock on the refurbs so it would make sense that once they are repaired it is added to stock as if it were a new console. Hell it wouldnt surprise me if they get repackaged and sold as new. If this is the case, then ya they will indeed count as sales.

Well if the site doesnt use use MS's own numbers then all this really doesnt matter. I would still like to see a reputable source for how MS counts numbers however, just for my own reference.

with 360 @ 9.91 now and Wii @ 7.95.

It looks like my 6/10 for wii to pass 8M will happen.

But the 360 10M looks like 6/24 at the earliest 

this could very well be the case...

but if xbox360 sells the exact same amount this week than last week it would be

x360 9.99 million

wii 8.15 million

I think we can safely say at this point that the Wii has won this particular race.