I am very curious to see the end results for this topic.

The release of GTA6 and its effects are essentially the crux of this conversation: Playstation 5 sales this year and beyond. Without that one, single title, would PS5 have anything left that would really alter its trajectory in any meaningful way? A price reduction would help, sure, but it can only drop so much. A new Uncharted game would probably get me, personally, to buy one eventually, but is that - or even The Last of Us 3 - going to significantly move the needle on hardware sales or keep it from its natural decline? Xbox barely trying to compete anymore and releasing all of its big guns on Sony’s platform going forward is certainly an issue, but then there’s the Switch 2 releasing. The debate of whether or not a “Switch” and a “Playstation” are directly competing is another subject, but if Switch 2 becomes the new “It” gaming topic amongst the masses regarding where the hype is, that could still have a modest effect on PS5 sales. And I do fully believe that the PS5 is pretty much kaput in Japan beyond Monster Hunter Wilds.

Sony itself has openly admitted that the Playstation 5 is past its peak and while I was one that once believed that the system could be up year over year with the GTA/price drop combo, I’m not so sure anymore. If those both occur this year, then yes, it’s likely. But beating its biggest year (almost 21m) is a bit of a stretch and surpassing the PS2's 22.5m peak year... well, I think that ship has sailed. GTA5 didn’t make PS3s or 360s start flying off of the shelves when it released well into those console’s lives. And we do have to consider that even though Xbox Series poses little threat to the PS5, the Xbox brand does still have a presence in North America - a region where GTA sales are pivotal. Remember, Sony is not the only one that could initiate a temporary price drop/bundle and a $299 Series S/GTA combo would be a very lucrative proposition for many GTA fans here in the U.S.

My prediction: If GTA6 does not release in 2025, then I think PS5 will sell <17m this year. If it does, and with (at least) temporary price drops and bundles, I’ll go with 19-20m.

If GTA VI releases I think it could well 18.5 million of not 16.5 million, unless it would get permanent price cuts than it could sell more.