OK yeah so I'll clarify what I think I can share since some of this is more out in the open that other things. This is older info, there is newer out, but anyways this will give an idea of what's happening

https://www.resetera.com/threads/famiboards-info-from-shipping-manifests-nintendo-is-ramping-up-switch-2-component-shipments-and-the-gamecube-controller-is-likely-returning.1007979/

HVBG is a Vietnamese based production facility that makes some portion of Switch 1 (and Switch 2) units for Nintendo. The shipping manifests to HVBG can be accessed but it's a bit of a pain in the ass to comb through.

These shipping manifests are how leaks like the Switch 2 having 12GB LPDDR5X RAM, 256GB internal UFS 3.1 storage, etc. leaked, which have been discussed quite a bit.

Now normally it looks like HVBG gets about 200,000 Switch 1 processors (the Tegra T214 I believe) each month, so that gives you a baseline of what their Switch 1 production is like give or take from this facility in Vietnam.

For Switch 2, people know the product codes from shipping manifests, so we see in June and July 2024, shipments of Switch 2 components are quite low. But in September 2024, something starts to happen:

Quote: There were some hints of this at the end of July, when small parts (tape and screws) appeared in a few shipments totaling to hundreds of thousands. In August, those increased to millions, and for the first time, multiple "major" components came in in the tens of thousands.

OK some screws for Switch 2 increasing, not really a big deal ... but then ...

Tegra T239 (the Switch 2's main processor) went from 3000 units ordered in June and 4000 in July approximately to 48,000 for August 2024.

The Switch 2's screen went from 1100 units ordered in June to over 68,000 in August.

This looks some kind of trial production beginning in August or September, but not mass production yet.

However there's now more and newer info out there, lets just say it's getting harder to deny something is happening, so I am inclined to feel like mass production is either imminent (this month or next month). There's also a bit in Nintendo's own financial brief just released that corresponds to a surge in components that preceded the Switch 1, Switch OLED, and Switch Lite/Mariko prior to their launch now shows up as a massive spike for the period ending September 2024. These spikes generally only happen 6-7 months prior to new hardware.

Now when do they want to unveil this? I don't know, but it sure looks like they are getting their manufacturers ready for production like ... now. 

Of course Switch won't be axed shortly after the Switch Up is released. Even the Gamecube lasted till 2008 and that system was close of being a flop! I do not see any scenario where Switch gets axed anytime sooner than march 2027. Everything points to a post support. Otherwise why announce MP4B for a 2025 Switch release? Of course one can say that even the PS4 was discontinued in 2022 but that does not affect Nintendo systems!

This.  I find the speculation silly.  We were promised a Pro half a dozen times based on "credible" leaks.  Those same "credible" leaks guaranteed WWHD and TPHD a few times as well.  I have no idea why people put such fair in speculation.  

Until Nintendo confirms, we don't know anything.  

I remember so many "promises" not only a Switch Pro, also a sucessor launch in 2023 (March, summer, winter), the same was going on for this year. A WWHD and TPHD release does not seem too unrealistic for me. But you are right: We know nothing post march 2025 only that there likly won't be a sucessor till then. The only things we know is that MP4 Beyond, Pokémon Z-A and this Prof. Layton game are 100% confirmed for Switch! Personally i would not exclude the possibility of one of these games to be delayed to march 2026 but again we know nothing. Thats why i am wondering why everyone sees it basically as a fact, that MP4B would be cross gen. Last year some people i know said it would not even be on the Switch anymore wich was debunked in summer. Why cross gen? Metroid has never been cross gen. Why this time? Remember the "rumor" where TOTK would be in 2023? We know how that turned out.😉

Nintendo will never confirm mass production, since when have they ever done that? Maybe Sony operates differently, but you'll never get that out of Nintendo.

We know from customs/shipping records that the Vietnam based factory that mass produces the Switch 1 are receiving Switch 2 components and we even know which components those are. As of June/July last year it was in low quantities, but there's been a monstrous surge in late July and August and they are now monthly receiving shipments tens of thousands (even more) of Switch 2 components on a monthly basis. Things like the Tegra T239 chip and Switch 2's specific LCD display, along with other less sexy parts like inventory for screws for the Switch 2 went from a small amount to now being stocked in the millions there. 

That isn't speculation or opinion, that's a fact. That is the customs/shipping record. 

I would say that points pretty hard towards production about to begin, otherwise why would you be sending large numbers of to the manufacturing point.

There's also seperate data on Nintendo's financial sheet that shows they are having the largest work in progress component surge of the last 6 years, these spikes always correspond to new hardware being released in the past (this number spiked 6 months before the Switch 1 launched, 6 months before the Switch Lite/Mariko launched, and 6 months prior to Switch OLED launching). Guess what happened in September 2024? It is spiking through the roof.

A question for those claiming that revealing the Switch 2 this year won’t affect Switch sales: what upside is there for Nintendo to announce before the end of the year?

To stifle PS5/Series sales? Not likely.

To give Nintendo fans a treat? Doesn’t seem like good motivation for a company.

I just can’t see what the purpose of announcing now would be unless you absolutely think Nintendo is launching on March 3rd to replicate the Switch 1 timeline.

Leaks are dime-a-dozen, which is why I always say to take them -all- with a grain of salt... Most end up being wrong or used for clickbait articles... And the few that ended up right, well. Great. - But usually it's something obvious that many people could have predicted correctly anyway.

The leaks leading up to the NX was a prime example... People were adamant it was going to be AMD Radeon powered... Or how the Xbox Series/Playstation 5 was going to have 64GB of Ram due to past historical trends that didn't account for pricing or other influences.

Not all "leaks" are remotely the same. Eurogamer did "leak" the entire Switch concept and design months in advance. 

Shipping/customs data is a fact though, so is stuff like the Nvidia hack that has all sorts of data on the Switch 2's hardware. 

Nintendo own's financial data/balance sheet as well. 

Those are different from just "random website says XYZ". You have to look at the source and nature of the leak and then you have to look at what the track record is. 

The fact is the assembly/manufacturing factory point that makes the Nintendo Switch is taking shipments of a ton of Switch 2 components and it has surged greatly around August. That's basically just a fact. 

You are missing the point. I am not saying that there are leaks that are not genuine.
I am saying you cannot ascertain what is truth or fiction when it comes to leaks as it's not come from an official source... Normally they come from 3rd parties/unnamed sources or heresay... And yes, we get leaks delivered by digital foundry... But even they say to take it with a grain of salt.

As for the assembly/manufacturing, it's Foxconn that does all that... And they have almost 800,000 workers across the planet, working for dozens and dozens of different companies... Who often use the same components that end up being in the device we are talking about.

Again, it's not about what ends up being true in the end, it's the gamble to determine what is fact or fiction to even get there.

Remember even a broken clock is right twice a day.

The leaks (I don't even know if "leak" is the correct word since it's basically just hard data) are coming from the Vietnam based factory Nintendo brought on board to help with Switch 1 production around 2020 I believe. HVBG. 

Because components have to ship there, it's possible to get shipment/customs data, that's how people have gotten the Switch 2's internal memory type, flash storage, etc. a few months ago. 

You can also see which Switch 2 components are being shipped to them but also in what quantity. The components all have manufacturing numbers and prefixes too so you can see what they are, the Switch 2 has its own prefix different from Switch 1. 

We're seeing a huge surge of Switch 2 components to a factory that produces/assembles Switch units beginning in August 2024. Tegra T239 SoCs went from 3000-4000/month to a nearly 50,000 unit order in August, LCD screens for the Switch 2 went from a 1100 unit order in June 2024 to 68,000 in August. And there's been more information since, lets just say this trend line is continuing. 

It's more that Nintendo can't control public records in this case.