OneTime said:
When kids stop getting Birthday and Xmas gifts?
You can't wrap a digital download.
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You can print a nice little thing with some images, a short message and a code though. I already did that once for my son when he wanted some PC game that wasn't available physically. He was quite happy about it. I mean people are already gifting gift cards left and right. I don't see a reason why that shouldn't work with codes for Steam, PSN and so on.
Physical media will probably be around forever, as there is a niche that quite enjoys it. Just look at the rise of vinyl. As for video games, stuff like Limited Run seems to enjoy quite a following. So if we include that, physical games will be around for quite some time. Sony and Microsoft could probably end their production of consoles with a disc drive as early as next gen. As for Nintendo, I fully expect the successor of the Switch to have physical media.
I expect official end of support from the big companies for physical media sometime in the next decade. But like I said, even when Nintendo, Sony and MS finally ditch that for good, physical media itself will still stick around in one way or another.