Reportedly, Vice President Harris has narrowed her running mate choice down to six options and has declared that she will announce her choice by Monday, ahead of a campaign visit Philadelphia with said running mate in tow. She's having one last meet-up with each of the remaining options over the weekend. Though VP picks tend to have only a small impact on the race either way, I think the viral, and hilarious, meme-ification of JD Vance's cat fight with childless women proves that they can be cat-astrophic. (You're welcome.) (At least it proves you can mobilize proud pet owners to vote against you anyway. 
And become the subject of countless cat-themed T-shirts. 
The ones I've ordered so far include this one, this one, and this one. 
) So...it can matter. Statistically, the dif tends to be small, but margins matter in a very close race such as we have here where who is leading now depends on which polling aggregator you trust more.
So, with all that said, the six finalists Harris is meeting this weekend include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. If I were in her place, here's how I'd rank those choices from best to worst:
1. Andy Beshear
2. Josh Shapiro
3. Mark Kelly
4. Tim Walz
5. J.B. Pritzker
6. Pete Buttigieg
The Secretary of Transportation is unpopular and for good reason: people remember the post-Covid product shortages. Once you add to this the fact that he's gay in a country where it remains controversial to be gay, you have to realize that he's simply a bad choice and picking him can only hurt you. Shouldn't even be considered. Similarly, Pritzker shouldn't be in consideration. He's a fat byproduct of political machinery (i.e. fulfills a lot of very old and very negative stereotypes about politicians) from a state Democrats reliably carry anyway. Next! Tim Walz has lately emerged as the favorite of these options amongst liberals because he has the most liberal list of bills passed to show on his record and Minnesota is almost a swing state. Good points, but I'll argue that, though elections may be close, Democrats have reliably carried Minnesota in every presidential election since 1976. Not actually a swing state realistically. Next!
Beshear, Shapiro, and Kelly are the best options, IMO, in no small part because each of them is more moderate than Harris, who is well-known as a clear-cut social liberal in a country that polls show already thinks President Biden is too liberal. Harris's nomination has excited liberal Democrats, needless to say, and has practically eliminated the support that fringe left-wing candidates like Jill Stein of the Green Party and Harvard Professor Cornel West previously enjoyed while persuading many formerly undecided voters to the Democratic ticket. She's not faring as well so far with independents or the white working class, the latter of which hasn't budged at all in the polling since she took over the campaign. Those are the people she needs the most right now, and we're talking about more moderate voters here. Having clearly unified, excited, and mobilized her own party, the running mate choice should be about expanding support beyond the Democratic Party's ranks; beyond liberals, progressives, and suburban professionals, business owners, and music and movie icons. Reaching the broader working class. All three of these options are strong ones in the sense that they've proven their ability to outperform Biden in the past, but the statistics bear out that Beshear and Shapiro are the two who shine the most with the rural working class people, who used to vote Democratic all the time but now form much of the core Trump base of support. There are reasons for that.
Beshear and Shapiro are well-spoken people who don't support support banning guns, fracking, or gas-powered cars. Shapiro offers the factor of also being Jewish in a year wherein Democratic support for Jewish people has come into very, very serious question while Beshear also adds quite frankly his accent and family history of supporting coal miners. Both of them are very sane people who would have no trouble at all dispensing with JD Vance in a running mate debate and have proven their ability to negotiate well with Republicans, the latter of which is important too because realistically, if Kamala Harris wins she will inherit a hostile Congress that will render her dependent on swaying the votes of a few Republicans here and there to get anything passed. Kelly mostly brings the suburban appeal of his respectably patriotic history in the military and as a former astronaut and the past wisdom to criticize Biden's weak-ass border policies from his border state. Arizona though is only worth 11 electoral votes compared to Pennsylvania's 19, besides which many polls show Harris, who is also from the western part of the country (California) already leading in Arizona anyway, but struggling more in Pennsylvania. I encourage focusing on working class appeal. That's your weak spot. It shouldn't be. The Teamsters president is supposed to be on your team, not speaking at the Republican Convention. Win him back!
What I'm trying to get at is that this is an opportunity for Harris to show that she wants the support of the more moderate, blue collar voters who've been slowly drifting away from the party for decades now. That's the path to both the biggest possible victory and the most effective presidency you can have. Pick either Andy Beshear or Josh Shapiro. Mark Kelly and Tim Walz are good options too, but the other two will help you more where you need it most. That's my two cents.
Last edited by Jaicee - on 03 August 2024
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