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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

Ryuu96 said:

Walz gives me the vibes that he may not be interested in President, like he's the best hype-man, the best support guy someone could ask for, but I feel like he's so wholesome that he would rather step aside and let someone (younger) take the President spot and just continue being the ultimate hype-man on the sides. Plus if Harris wins two terms, Walz will be 68 by the end of it and we've all seen how Presidency ages people, Lol. Kamala and Walz are the same age but Walz already looks notably older than Harris.

I think the future is Shapiro + Whitmer or Whitmer + Shapiro but someone out of nowhere could pop out.

Walz has that Ernest Borgnine thing going. He looks way older than he is, acts with more energy than he is. Ernest Borgnine looked ~85 some 30-50 years before he died in 2012.

Borgnine in 1963.

Borgnine in the 1980s,

Escape from New York 1981:

Here he was in the 1950s, despite being the same age as Kirk Douglas, he played Douglas's father :D

Dude was always full of energy. Anyway, Walz gives off that Ernest Borgnine vibe and energy.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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Ryuu96 said:

What the fuck does a footballer know about running a missile defence shield and what are they protecting themselves from?

Herschel Walker couldn't be bothered to put shields on his own little missile, yet he wanted full-on banishment of abortion with no exceptions despite coercing women from his past to get abortions when he couldn't handle the consequences of scandalous pregnancies.

Dude's egg is so scrambled from CTE that he shouldn't be in charge of watching popcorn in the microwave to make sure it doesn't get burned.



Sienna polls not remotely as comforting as I would prefer.



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Chrkeller said:

Sienna polls not remotely as comforting as I would prefer.

Why? They have Harris winning 274 to 308 depending on how the ties go, and one of them is almost assuredly blue given what we know of early voting (Michigan).



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
Chrkeller said:

Sienna polls not remotely as comforting as I would prefer.

Why? They have Harris winning 274 to 308 depending on how the ties go, and one of them is almost assuredly blue given what we know of early voting (Michigan).

Seems like a lot of swing states are tied and the others are within margin of error.  When I went to their website they has it as a toss up, not Harris likely winning.



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Chrkeller said:

Seems like a lot of swing states are tied and the others are within margin of error.  When I went to their website they has it as a toss up, not Harris likely winning.

There's zero chance any polls from reliable outlets will be divulged with Harris outside the margin of error. After 2020 no pollster is going to risk it, it would be the death of the industry.

Besides, if there was another systematic error in favor of Trump, then he was going to win handily all along regardless of the Democratic candidate due to inflation and there's no point worrying about it.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
Chrkeller said:

Seems like a lot of swing states are tied and the others are within margin of error.  When I went to their website they has it as a toss up, not Harris likely winning.

There's zero chance any polls from reliable outlets will be divulged with Harris outside the margin of error. After 2020 no pollster is going to risk it, it would be the death of the industry.

Besides, if there was another systematic error in favor of Trump, then he was going to win handily all along regardless of the Democratic candidate due to inflation and there's no point worrying about it.

Harris winning means we have faith in a GA 1% lead.  That isn't a comfortable position.  Not too mention Clinton was suppose to win PA in 2016 based on Siena final polls.....  

Edit

Michigan is a tie right now.  



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Chrkeller said:

Harris winning means we have faith in a GA 1% lead.  That isn't a comfortable position.  Not too mention Clinton was suppose to win PA in 2016 based on Siena final polls.....  

Edit

Michigan is a tie right now.  

Michigan looks very very safe from EV data.

Also, Siena and Siena/NYT are two very different pollsters. The methodology of the latter is completely different.



 

 

 

 

 

Michigan I'm least worried about, I think she has it. I'm not that worried about PA anymore either. I am worried about Wisconsin, I really hope she can take all 3 and just wrap this thing up without needing any of the others (although, the others would be a bonus).



Chrkeller said:
haxxiy said:

There's zero chance any polls from reliable outlets will be divulged with Harris outside the margin of error. After 2020 no pollster is going to risk it, it would be the death of the industry.

Besides, if there was another systematic error in favor of Trump, then he was going to win handily all along regardless of the Democratic candidate due to inflation and there's no point worrying about it.

Harris winning means we have faith in a GA 1% lead.  That isn't a comfortable position.  Not too mention Clinton was suppose to win PA in 2016 based on Siena final polls.....  

Edit

Michigan is a tie right now.  

That's just the way polls are dude. 

If Harris wins Michigan it will likely be under five points. So even if the polls are absolutely crushing it, there should be some showing a tie or even a slight Trump lead. You can't just look to one in isolation. One the whole the more reputable polls indicate a slight Harris lead in Michigan. Combine that with early vote numbers and it's looking good.