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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

Ryuu96 2 days ago



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Ryuu96 2 days ago

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 2 days ago

Ryuu96 2 days ago



haxxiy 2 days ago
Ryuu96 said:

Oh sure but my point was that, would the methodology be different for president versus governor/senator polling? Do we put more weight in the governor result or more weight in her presidential specific accuracy?

It wouldn't. What I'm saying is that it doesn't matter if she were as off base as she has ever been, this would still be a very bad result for Trump.

It would have to be an unprecedented polling failure (more than 2 standard deviations) or some massive last-moment shift for it not to be.



 

 

 

 

 

Ryuu96 2 days ago
haxxiy said:
Ryuu96 said:

Oh sure but my point was that, would the methodology be different for president versus governor/senator polling? Do we put more weight in the governor result or more weight in her presidential specific accuracy?

It wouldn't. What I'm saying is that it doesn't matter if she were as off base as she has ever been, this would still be a very bad result for Trump.

It would have to be an unprecedented polling failure (more than 2 standard deviations) for it not to be.

Alright! But yeah, understood! Either way it would be horrible!



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JWeinCom 2 days ago
haxxiy said:

Even if this is off by 5 points, the most Selzer has ever been, this is a catastrophic result for Trump that puts Nebraska-02 and likely the neighboring Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin out of contention.

At this point is Pennsylvania or nothing for him.

If there has been an 11 point swing in Iowa, PA is a lock. Ohio is in play. Texas and Florida may be as well. If this is right we are looking at an electoral blowout between 350 and 400. This would end the Maga movement. 

Every poll should be taken with a grain of salt. But I don't think it is an impossibility.



RolStoppable 2 days ago
JWeinCom said:
haxxiy said:

Even if this is off by 5 points, the most Selzer has ever been, this is a catastrophic result for Trump that puts Nebraska-02 and likely the neighboring Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin out of contention.

At this point is Pennsylvania or nothing for him.

If there has been an 11 point swing in Iowa, PA is a lock. Ohio is in play. Texas and Florida may be as well. If this is right we are looking at an electoral blowout between 350 and 400. This would end the Maga movement. 

Every poll should be taken with a grain of salt. But I don't think it is an impossibility.

You are living proof of how much a Jets win can change a person's mood.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Ryuu96 2 days ago

Don't underestimate women. Especially pissed off women.



JWeinCom 2 days ago
RolStoppable said:
JWeinCom said:

If there has been an 11 point swing in Iowa, PA is a lock. Ohio is in play. Texas and Florida may be as well. If this is right we are looking at an electoral blowout between 350 and 400. This would end the Maga movement. 

Every poll should be taken with a grain of salt. But I don't think it is an impossibility.

You are living proof of how much a Jets win can change a person's mood.

I'm kinda rooting for draft pick. That Wilson catch though. Chef's kiss.



haxxiy 2 days ago
JWeinCom said:

If there has been an 11 point swing in Iowa, PA is a lock. Ohio is in play. Texas and Florida may be as well. If this is right we are looking at an electoral blowout between 350 and 400. This would end the Maga movement. 

Every poll should be taken with a grain of salt. But I don't think it is an impossibility.

Well, we had Ohio R+3 and Kansas R+5 a few days ago, the bottom for Republicans might truly have fallen off in the Midwestern suburbs. I still think Harris fares just 1-2 points better than Biden there, but who knows at this point.

The South is another matter, Republicans have been flocking to Texas and especially Florida, and the latter also has Hispanics voting red now. Probably.