It's also important to keep in mind that the average voter isn't paying attention to politics all the time. They'll hear something about Trump attacking Puerto Ricans, something about Biden attacking Trump's supporters, and carry on with their day.

When they come to vote they will be thinking more about social security and gas prices and their party ID and weight the pros and cons. Whatever politicians (or comedians) have said in the past week will be an afterthought at best.

Biden didn't even make a move. If you watch it for yourself what he said in its entirety, it becomes clear that he didn't say "supporters" but supporter's" which is a tremendous difference. He wasn't talking about a lot of people, but the statement of a single person. But even if Biden had called Trump's supporters garbage, what difference would it make; in order to be offended by that, you'd have to be a Trump voter to begin with and you were already going to vote for Trump anyway.

Even before this Biden "incident", Harris has said that he doesn't view people who don't vote her as the enemy, but will give them a seat at the table. And let's not forget that it never came to Harris's nor Biden's minds to block hurricane aid from counties that are dominated by Republican voters, as opposed to Trump who had to be talked out of such ideas during his time in office.

Anyway, Trump will lose this election. Because if he was winning, his campaign wouldn't go in so hard on planting the seeds for the next big lie about a stolen election.

Just because polls were wrong in one direction before doesn't mean they'll always be wrong in that direction, they were also wrong in 2022 when they underestimated Democrats. They've been wrong a lot post-Dobbs in underestimating Democrats. Maybe they'll be wrong in favour of Trump but it is just as likely they've corrected for that after being wrong about Trump twice in a row, it is just as likely that they've overcorrected for it and are overestimating Trump's chances.

Even Nate Silver said that all pollsters are herding now, which makes them pretty useless, Lol. When you have polls all essentially saying the same thing, all basically saying it's a tossup, then you look at the MoE they've put on their polls and it's shit like +4 or +5 then it makes me throw my hands up in the air and ignore them completely because they're just putting themselves in a position where they'll be right no matter what. Some of these MoE's are ridiculous, some of these crosstabs are obvious nonsense.

Polls are herding and I think they're all terrified of being wrong once again so they're playing it extremely safe.

I'm very confident that Harris takes Michigan, as for Pennsylvania, I'm pretty confident there too, her ground operation has been far superior to Trump, she has Shapiro campaigning his ass off across the state, PA has a large voting block of Polish-Americans and Puerto Ricans who Trump has pissed off, he is currently cancelling planned events there and the fact that he is ranting on Twitter already about huge PA voting fraud is leading me to believe that his internal polling for PA is bad but I could be wrong, I've just felt confident about PA for a while.

Wisconsin and Arizona are the ones I'm most worried about.

According to a 2004 paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favorite in the month before the election has lost only twice, in 1916 and 1948.

I think he clarified what he meant (that it was just that specific supporter, the shitty comedian). Nevertheless he should probably be stored in the storage cupboard until after the election, Lmao. We can't risk his gaffes, especially with the double standards from how Democrats are allowed to act versus how Republicans are allowed to act.

Harris almost immediately responded to it.

Trump almost immediately fucked up his chance to attack with it by doing that stupid garbage truck photo op and refusing to apologise for the incident from his comedian which has pissed off Puerto Ricans even more because it has looked like he's mocking them with the garbage truck and not Biden. So I don't think Biden's gaffe has or rather had any staying power, especially since Trump's stupid garbage truck backfired on him.

Ahh ok maybe I should also fact check more what he said, I only saw the news on German TV today and they mentioned how Biden called Trump supporters garbage and how Trump sat in that truck then. 

In 2016, they were even more confident than some forecasters, such as FiveThirtyEight, that Hillary Clinton would defeat Mr. Trump. Prediction markets can also amplify the opinions of speculators: In 2020, some investors were still betting that Mr. Trump would be the next president even after the race had been called for Mr. Biden.

You are clearly right... but are voters intelligent enough to draw the logical conclusion? Maybe not. And there is a separate set of standards applied to republicans.

Eh... 2016?

The thing is... that's just not the case. Pennsylvania's polling average was actually spot on in 2020. According to RCP, Biden was up 1.2% as of election day, and finished... winning by 1.2%.

Of course, you could flip the argument and say that since polls were accurate then, they are now, so Harris must be losing Pennsylvania. The problem with that is the polls were in some cases off, and not always in Biden's favor. Georgia had Trump up 1% and he lost by .3%. And that's just how polls are. They are not an exact science.

If you take the polls at face value, and I don't think you should seeing as some of the polls in the average are clearly garbage, then you get a .4% lead for Trump. I'm not sure how you could get from there to a 90% chance of a Trump win. 

The absolute state of this man, Lol.