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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

Chrkeller 6 days ago
Ryuu96 said:

It's still a toss-up though with Harris in the slight lead, no need to doom just yet, it was always going to be close.

I don't think polls are going to change at this point, Trump's ceiling seems to be 46%, I can't predict an event which would have a major affect on polling day to day, Trump's assassination attempts did nothing for him, the economy is improving, as long as Israel doesn't start a war with Iran and drive up oil prices, I think the polling is set in stone and we'll see what happens on election day.

Personally I think it's going to come down to enthusiasm turnout. There's some promising signs that enthusiasm remains high for Democrats though. I still think women are going to come out in force and with Harris eroding Trump's lead on issues that Republicans tend to lead on it could hurt some traditional Republican support. Could still go either way though. I'm not being complacent. There's a lot of bigoted people.

A toss-up with a tyrant who literally tried to take over the government...  I think it is a perfect time to panic.  



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JWeinCom 6 days ago
Chrkeller said:

Betting firms in the US have given Trump a 70% chance of winning the election with him taking WI, GA, PA and NC. Almost like liberals don't connect with the average person, but that can't be true, because when I mentioned it a hundred pages ago I was told I was wrong. :)

Please tell me where I can place a bet with those odds.



Ryuu96 6 days ago
Chrkeller said:
Ryuu96 said:

It's still a toss-up though with Harris in the slight lead, no need to doom just yet, it was always going to be close.

I don't think polls are going to change at this point, Trump's ceiling seems to be 46%, I can't predict an event which would have a major affect on polling day to day, Trump's assassination attempts did nothing for him, the economy is improving, as long as Israel doesn't start a war with Iran and drive up oil prices, I think the polling is set in stone and we'll see what happens on election day.

Personally I think it's going to come down to enthusiasm turnout. There's some promising signs that enthusiasm remains high for Democrats though. I still think women are going to come out in force and with Harris eroding Trump's lead on issues that Republicans tend to lead on it could hurt some traditional Republican support. Could still go either way though. I'm not being complacent. There's a lot of bigoted people.

A toss-up with a tyrant who literally tried to take over the government...  I think it is a perfect time to panic.  

Or, Harris wins, cause it's a toss-up, and she is currently in the lead by toss-up margins.

But also this is EC...If it was PV then I think Harris would win comfortably but it is EC and it comes down to a few states and tens of thousands margins. It is what it is. If Harris wins then they can seethe and I won't care but I do acknowledge that's an uncomfortable amount of bigots and selfish people in the world.

Side question, if Harris did win the popular vote by comfortable margins then would you still argue that she didn't appeal to the average American?



Ryuu96 6 days ago

Remember this fellow Republicans. We can fight afterwards

Harris will win! *Don't get complacent. I actually think she's running a good campaign though.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 6 days ago

Ryuu96 6 days ago

US meteorologists face death threats as hurricane conspiracies surge | Hurricane Milton | The Guardian

I think I'll have to close my Twitter account soon.

Just thinking where to go next, I need to check where my Ukraine sources are at...

Should have posted this in the US Politics thread...

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 6 days ago

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Ryuu96 6 days ago


zorg1000 6 days ago

I’m confused by the framing that liberals are bad at messaging when Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections and most likely 8 of 9 after this one.

1992, D+5.6%
1996, D+8.5%
2000, D+0.5%
2004, R+2.4%
2008, D+7.2%
2012, D+3.9%
2016, D+2.1%
2020, D+4.5%
2024, D+3.0% (current polling average)

The problem is that many of our democratic institutions aren’t truly democratic. Every state having the same amount of Senators and capping the number of House members and having the Electoral College tied to those makes it so the votes of people in low population states significantly outweigh those in higher population states. Let’s look at the lowest and highest population states for comparison.

California has over 67x the population of Wyoming but because of the unequal way the system is setup, it only has 18x as many Electoral College votes. Basically a vote in Wyoming is worth ~3.75x as much as a vote in California.

Democrats don’t have a messaging problem, they have a problem with a system that caters to low population, rural states that are predominantly white Christian’s.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable 6 days ago
Chrkeller said:

I think my point is, given the competition and craziness, it shouldn't be a tossup.  Liberals need to ask themselves why it is a tossup against easy targets...  there is something off.  If you can't beat "eating cats and dogs" and "weather control" there is a big problem with the platform.

edit

and 56% of Americans own stock, 30+% have their retirement in the stock market....  the conclusion isn't "nobody cares about the stock market."

It shouldn't be a toss-up, but the reality is that the USA is a country where propaganda goes uncontrolled and this has resulted in a large chunk of the population living in a warped reality by now. As such, the Democrats platform and messaging - whether good, mediocre or bad - is completely irrelevant, because they won't reach those people anyway.

When you consider that Republican governors of hurricane-affected states can't even convince all the Republican voters in their own states that aid is available, then it's pretty nuts of you to run an argument that the Democrats' campaign is to blame for this close race. And of course there is also the reality of the electoral college, voter registration hurdles and all kinds of other things to stack the deck of an election in favor of the Republicans.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

burninmylight 6 days ago
Ryuu96 said:

It wasn't that long ago that he was all in on Ron DeSantis as the Republican presidential candidate. Makes one wonder what deals he and Trump made under the table.



Ryuu96 6 days ago

The Alien and Sedition Acts were a set of four laws enacted in 1798 that applied restrictions to immigration and speech in the United States.

The Naturalization Act increased the requirements to seek citizenship, the Alien Friends Act allowed the president to imprison and deport non-citizens, the Alien Enemies Act gave the president additional powers to detain non-citizens during times of war, and the Sedition Act criminalized false and malicious statements about the federal government.

The Alien Enemies Act has been invoked several times since, particularly during World War II. The Alien and Sedition Acts are generally received negatively by modern historians, and the U.S. Supreme Court has since indicated that aspects of the laws would likely be found unconstitutional today.

It's been invoked three times: War of 1812, WWI and WWII.

Last used in WW2 to put Japanese-Americans in concentration camps.