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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

RolStoppable said:
JWeinCom said:

Problem is that she's juuuuuuuust at the bare minimum of what she'd need to win. Hillary won by I believe about 2% in the popular vote but somehow lost because the system is fucked. So, these results show Kamala winning by juuuuuust enough, and of course polls could be wrong.

The good news though is I think it's unlikely that Trump's support is underestimated in these polls. In 2016, Trump had a little over 46% of the vote. In 2020 a little under that. So, unless Trump has somehow gained a lot of support, he doesn't have  much room for improvement. And... I really just don't see Trump improving over four years ago. If anything, we would expect the opposite considering who is entering and leaving the voting pool. The undecideds should, at worse, break even, and more likely will go more for Harris.

The problem you are talking about concerns the fundamentals of your dumb voting system, but the actual takeaway from the polling average should be that Harris keeps steadily improving. While early voting has already started in some states, there's still a whole month left until election day. By that time the average lead should be above 4.0%, perhaps even closer to 5.0% because Trump's mental state gets more unstable by the week.

on what Rol said, it should be realized that Trump is the most recognizable and obvious case of a grandiose narcissist in our time.  They probably have put his picture in some of the abnormal psych textbooks for that disorder.  Also, losing for them is more than a bad thing, it defines them as a bad person and so they don't just go on with their lives, they lose it and can become erratic.  



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Mnementh said:
RolStoppable said:

On a sidenote, American campaigns take forever. For example, Austria elected a new government this past Sunday. An election in late September means that campaigns start in earnest in early September, so it's all done in a single month. We only needed a few weeks to make our fascist party win the election.

LOL. But be assured, you can blame germany for it:

https://www.der-postillon.com/2024/09/ampel-schuld.html

Great read. Scholz isn't failing only the Germans.

Ryuu96 said:

Austria's far-right winning, Hungary already having a far-right government and the far-right increasing in Germany.

Joking But it is a bit worrying, from an individual countries perspective, doesn't help that they all suck up to Russia too.

In a normal country this wouldn't matter, but in Austria we have the messed up situation that the conservatives are not only willing to enter, but would also most prefer a coalition with the far-right. They have one condition though: The current leader of the far-right has to stay out of government.

I doubt that nutjob will budge. The amusing thing is that the conservatives and social democrats combine for the slimmest of majorities: One seat. So there is a quite easy way out of these election results, although another option that has been thrown around is that the conservatives and social democrats could add one of the two smaller parties in a three-way coalition for a more reliable majority. Doesn't sound good, because the more parties in a coalition, the harder it will be to come to agreements.

Anyway, it's expected to take several months until Austria's next government will be finalized.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Torillian said:
JWeinCom said:

Problem is that she's juuuuuuuust at the bare minimum of what she'd need to win. Hillary won by I believe about 2% in the popular vote but somehow lost because the system is fucked. So, these results show Kamala winning by juuuuuust enough, and of course polls could be wrong.

The good news though is I think it's unlikely that Trump's support is underestimated in these polls. In 2016, Trump had a little over 46% of the vote. In 2020 a little under that. So, unless Trump has somehow gained a lot of support, he doesn't have  much room for improvement. And... I really just don't see Trump improving over four years ago. If anything, we would expect the opposite considering who is entering and leaving the voting pool. The undecideds should, at worse, break even, and more likely will go more for Harris.

Important to remember, though that it's all just about the distribution. Democrats have been losing ground in places like NY and CA where republicans are so far off they can't possibly have a shot, so if you maintain the same popular vote lead but more of that is distributed in the correct states you're set. 's why you're best off keeping track of the meaningful individual state polling rather than the overall number though that can give you current trends. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ There's a "path to 270" visual on this page that kinda shows you the true state of thing. 

It's hard to know the distribution. There's not a ton of reliable polling data in places like Oregon, California, New Jersey, or Mississippi because we already know who is going to win there, and frankly, nobody cares if Trump is going to win Kansas by 20 or 25. 

Whether we extrapolate from the popular vote or look at the swing state data, we get to the same thing, that Harris is winning by a very very small margin. Of course, a win is a win, but due to the limitations of polls, it's hard to predict anything with confidence. 



Trump's election interference case got a ton of new evidence and tidbits released, but nobody is talking about it here. I guess it's because we all know how little sway it will have despite there still being undecided voters.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:

Trump's election interference case got a ton of new evidence and tidbits released, but nobody is talking about it here. I guess it's because we all know how little sway it will have despite there still being undecided voters.

I just couldn't be bothered to read it, Lol.

Idk if there's anything juicy in there.



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Lul.



Ryuu96 said:
RolStoppable said:

Trump's election interference case got a ton of new evidence and tidbits released, but nobody is talking about it here. I guess it's because we all know how little sway it will have despite there still being undecided voters.

I just couldn't be bothered to read it, Lol.

Idk if there's anything juicy in there.

I am not going to read it either because it's 165 pages. The media is still dissecting it too, but it's apparently filled with admissions by Trump that he knew he lost, but proceded anyway. The gist of it is that if Trump loses the election, the case will get in court and he has no chance to win anything there because it's such a clear case of criminal intent.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Ryuu96 said:
RolStoppable said:

Trump's election interference case got a ton of new evidence and tidbits released, but nobody is talking about it here. I guess it's because we all know how little sway it will have despite there still being undecided voters.

I just couldn't be bothered to read it, Lol.

Idk if there's anything juicy in there.

The documents just kind of show that tons of people around Trump told him that he lost and that it was pretty clear Trump knew he lost. Which should hurt him, except for the fact that anyone with two brain cells to rub together already knew that. 



MAGA has so many grievances with diversity, LGBTQ rights, civil rights, abortions rights etc; Crazy they have no grievances with a convicted felon, insurrectionist, and a man who lied straight to their faces regarding losing the election.



PortisheadBiscuit said:

MAGA has so many grievances with diversity, LGBTQ rights, civil rights, abortions rights etc; Crazy they have no grievances with a convicted felon, insurrectionist, and a man who lied straight to their faces regarding losing the election.

Party of Law & Order.