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Torillian on 03 October 2024
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JWeinCom said:
Jumpin said:

New update with the Harris campaign widening the gap to new heights again. This time the aggregate average is up by 3.6%

Source of poll
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kamala 
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Others/
Undecided
[a]		Margin
RealClearPoliticsSeptember 11 – October 1, 2024October 2, 202449.2%47.0%3.8%Harris +2.2%
Race to the WHthrough October 2, 2024October 2, 202450.1%46.1%3.8%Harris +4.0%
Decision Desk HQ/The Hillthrough October 2, 2024October 2, 202449.9%45.3%4.8%Harris +4.6%
270toWinthrough October 2, 2024October 2, 202449.9%45.4%4.7%Harris +4.5%
FiveThirtyEightthrough October 2, 2024October 2, 202448.5%45.7%5.8%Harris +2.8%
Silver Bulletinthrough October 2, 2024October 2, 202449.4%45.9%4.7%Harris +3.5%
Average49.6%46.0%4.4%Harris +3.6%
49.6%46.0%4.4%Harris 

Problem is that she's juuuuuuuust at the bare minimum of what she'd need to win. Hillary won by I believe about 2% in the popular vote but somehow lost because the system is fucked. So, these results show Kamala winning by juuuuuust enough, and of course polls could be wrong.

The good news though is I think it's unlikely that Trump's support is underestimated in these polls. In 2016, Trump had a little over 46% of the vote. In 2020 a little under that. So, unless Trump has somehow gained a lot of support, he doesn't have  much room for improvement. And... I really just don't see Trump improving over four years ago. If anything, we would expect the opposite considering who is entering and leaving the voting pool. The undecideds should, at worse, break even, and more likely will go more for Harris.

Important to remember, though that it's all just about the distribution. Democrats have been losing ground in places like NY and CA where republicans are so far off they can't possibly have a shot, so if you maintain the same popular vote lead but more of that is distributed in the correct states you're set. 's why you're best off keeping track of the meaningful individual state polling rather than the overall number though that can give you current trends. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ There's a "path to 270" visual on this page that kinda shows you the true state of thing. 



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