JRPGfan said:
I think he is right, in this video. |
He's just a pot calling a kettle black. His 36 million estimate is off by around the same amount as Zubytech's only in the opposite direction and he's mad because people are calling him out on it.
Will it reach 40 million? | |||
Yes it will | 90 | 54.88% | |
No, it will fall short | 74 | 45.12% | |
Total: | 164 |
JRPGfan said:
I think he is right, in this video. |
He's just a pot calling a kettle black. His 36 million estimate is off by around the same amount as Zubytech's only in the opposite direction and he's mad because people are calling him out on it.
AMD said :
" Strong current console generation with cumulative unit shipments surpassing 100 million in Q4'24. "
They have well precised 100, not 101 not 105 neither 110 or more but 100 million :3
Perhaps you should accept the data as it is and stop making assumptions based on nothing to support the narrative.
Esparadrapo said:
He's just a pot calling a kettle black. His 36 million estimate is off by around the same amount as Zubytech's only in the opposite direction and he's mad because people are calling him out on it. |
Zubytech is an obnoxious console warrior, and I don't say that lightly. I muted his misinforming arse years ago.
There is a difference between propagating data that is outside all realistic estimates, and favoring the estimate that is more positive within the believable range. I remember challenging one of Welfare's monthly estimates here on VGChartz, and I'm pretty sure his numbers indeed proved too positive for Xbox and the data eventually got adjusted down. His mistake (and VGChartz's mistake) was the tendency to choose the optimistic figure within the aggregated range (and assume higher Series S splits for revenue based data). But they did make sure to keep it within the acceptable range. This isn't how Zubytech does things, which is what's pissing off Welfare. Zuby's data is often devoid of all reason, he doesn't seem to put any real effort analyzing anything.
Personally, I didn't take AmpereAnalysis and MediaCreate's low Xbox estimates at face value, but I didn't flatout ignore them either. I figured the actual sales were somewhere between the two ends. Zuby goes below the low end and he doesn't do it because he's smart, he does it because he's a fanboy lol.
Esparadrapo said:
He's just a pot calling a kettle black. His 36 million estimate is off by around the same amount as Zubytech's only in the opposite direction and he's mad because people are calling him out on it. |
Kyuu said:
Zubytech is an obnoxious console warrior, and I don't say that lightly. I muted his misinforming arse years ago. There is a difference between propagating data that is outside all realistic estimates, and favoring the estimate that is more positive within the believable range. I remember challenging one of Welfare's monthly estimates here on VGChartz, and I'm pretty sure his numbers indeed proved too positive for Xbox and the data eventually got adjusted down. His mistake (and VGChartz's mistake) was the tendency to choose the optimistic figure within the aggregated range (and assume higher Series S splits for revenue based data). But they did make sure to keep it within the acceptable range. This isn't how Zubytech does things, which is what's pissing off Welfare. Zuby's data is often devoid of all reason, he doesn't seem to put any real effort analyzing anything. Personally, I didn't take AmpereAnalysis and MediaCreate's low Xbox estimates at face value, but I didn't flatout ignore them either. I figured the actual sales were somewhere between the two ends. Zuby goes below the low end and he doesn't do it because he's smart, he does it because he's a fanboy lol. |
Zuby_tech is far from obnoxious console warrior. Not nearly as Xbox brigade like GeneralMLD, Kidsmoove, RandalThor and similar. But putting that aside. I don't agree with Zuby Tech numbers. 26 million is low. Welfare's 36 million shipped is really overestimated. 21 million was in June 2023. If some of you thing that XSeries has sold in 10+ mil. units in year and a half, someone is not living in a reality. XSeries sales already have cratered that year and especially in 2024. I mean, under a million just during holidays in US. LOL
According to Take 2 numbers which are 94 mil. as of Nov. 2024...
Looks like bunch of sites are citing Take 2 numbers which also says XSeries sold as of Nov.30 27-29 mil.
PS5 was at 65.5 million shipped as of Sep. 30th
As of Nov.30th PS5 could have been as 68-69 million shipped and 66 million sold through maybe. Sony had really big sales last holiday, though.
Which would be for Xbox 28 million sold through which falls in line with T2 statement. as of Nov. 30th. +30 million shipped Xboxes surely is as of Dec 31st. Btw. in last few days Welfare backpedalled somehow with its initially 36 mil. XSeries shipped ( which is surely a overestimate, a heavy one ). On Era or IB he mentioned +30 million shipped. Also, he made a video immediately after Take 2 numbers, which sounds like a desperation move.
Funniest shit you can pull out of his repertoire is how he's trying to differentiate from sell through and shipped. Dude... Series has been out of stock for over two months now. There's no real difference between the two since Microsoft lets the stock dry and barely replenishes it. Nearly the same story with PS5, Sony has a far tighter control over its channel now.
Manlytears said: So, Xbox numbers are overtracked, right? |
I think the strategy over here at VGChartz is not to acknowledge it and chipping away units so people don't notice their estimates getting in line with the only factual data we have.
"See? We were dead on all along!"
Last edited by Esparadrapo - on 15 February 2025I've gone through our estimates and was able to adjust it down in the markets with limited data (Asia, MEA, Oceania, Latin America, OEU) and have the Xbox Series X|S now down well over 50% year-on-year in those markets. In total that was around a 179K adjustment downward.
The US historically has accounted for around 50% of the worldwide sales for Xbox and with data and leaks from Circana/NPD our US estimates should be within a few percent.
Circana/NPD's Mat Piscatella did reveal the XS was 18% behind the X1 through December 2024 and with leaks we know X1 monthly sales in the US. We have the XS down 18% compared to the X1.
Here are the US and WW sales compared:
XS:
WW - 32,003,513
US - 16,480,944
US % - 51.5%
X1:
WW - 57,957,918
US - 29,973,832
US % - 51.7%
X360:
WW - 85,733,192
US - 42,730,923
US % - 49.8%
With sales dropping faster outside the US that US % for the Xbox Series X|S is only going to grow.
This would be much easier if Microsoft gave us actual sales figures. And if they were to ever reveal sales we would adjust to match.
When it comes to the AMD 100M shipped figure for PS5 and XS combined - they said it happened sometime during Q4 2024 and not just at the end of the quarter. 100M at the end of quarter would mean 25M for XS (given PS5 is at 75M), which is impossible.
Last edited by trunkswd - on 15 February 2025VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.
I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.
Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.
So, the Xbox shipments would be more, correct?
If it is 33 million, that would be 108 million combined with PS5.
AMD'PR team somehow under-report by 8 million in their earnings report?
Oneeee-Chan!!!2.0 said: AMD'PR team somehow under-report by 8 million in their earnings report? |
Of course they did you baka, you. How dare the very maker of the SoC in both consoles get it wrong when we have people pulling numbers out of thin air correcting them.
The very same people who doesn't dare to publish their estimates from Europe because their only source for them resigned and they are now in the dark without a percentage to make even more stuff up.