Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 36 million?

[trunkswd]

I've gone through our estimates and was able to adjust it down in the markets with limited data (Asia, MEA, Oceania, Latin America, OEU) and have the Xbox Series X|S now down well over 50% year-on-year in those markets. In total that was around a 179K adjustment downward.

The US historically has accounted for around 50% of the worldwide sales for Xbox and with data and leaks from Circana/NPD our US estimates should be within a few percent.

Through each console's first 50 months in the US market (life to date ending Dec 2024 for both XBS and PS5), PS5 lifetime unit sales are 7% ahead of PS4's pace, while Xbox Series trails Xbox One by 18%.

Through 38 months in the US (through Dec 2023), PS5 led PS4 by 6% while XBS trailed XBO by 13%.

— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) January 23, 2025 at 1:49 PM

Circana/NPD's Mat Piscatella did reveal the XS was 18% behind the X1 through December 2024 and with leaks we know X1 monthly sales in the US. We have the XS down 18% compared to the X1.

Here are the US and WW sales compared:

XS:
WW - 32,003,513
US - 16,480,944
US % - 51.5%

X1:
WW - 57,957,918
US - 29,973,832
US % - 51.7%

X360:
WW - 85,733,192
US - 42,730,923
US % - 49.8%

With sales dropping faster outside the US that US % for the Xbox Series X|S is only going to grow.

This would be much easier if Microsoft gave us actual sales figures. And if they were to ever reveal sales we would adjust to match.

When it comes to the AMD 100M shipped figure for PS5 and XS combined - they said it happened sometime during Q4 2024 and not just at the end of the quarter. 100M at the end of quarter would mean 25M for XS (given PS5 is at 75M), which is impossible.

Last edited by trunkswd - on 15 February 2025