This site underestimated Xbox One hardware sales by about 8 million units before it got adjusted up. I wouldn't expect much different for the Series consoles. It is probably not as much off as last time, but I doubt it is being overestimated here.

There were also many people who said the Xbox One sales were being overestimated here and every other site before the hardware sales info leaked out. The cycle repeats itself.

In terms of reliability

Sony, Take-2, AMD >>> Omdia, Ampere or any others.

They do tend to fall in line, though. Same with (some) data miners acknowledging those numbers and making corrections and not the other way around.

I'm still inclined to think that T2 works with reliable research firms.

https://x.com/Zuby_Tech/status/1887512553179185259?t=BUgYmawLslIKITNOtyKYfw

AMD President And CEO Lisa Su:
"This console generation has been very strong. Highlighted by cumulative unit shipments surpassing 100 Million in the fourth quarter."

 AMD announces Series S/X + Playstation 5, cross over 100m chips shipped.

At this time, Sony announced 71.03 million units.
This means Xbox has to be around 29m units (unless AMD over 100m, is like 101- 102m or more, but they then would have announced it sooner no?).

Xbox could legit be a tiny bit overtracked here (1-2m).

This doesn't look like its a repeat of the Xbox One, where we had to up numbers.

I think this lines up with Take2's numbers.
Suggesting that the Xbox is likely just barely over 30m (now).

Like if in november, the PS5 was at ~65m units, the Xbox then, was at ~29m units (giving 94m+ total)
Then in Janurary (or early feb. when numbers were collected), PS5 was over 71m.... suggesting Xbox barely crossed 30m by that point.
(lets say AMD noticed that at this point with shipments, they crosses over 100m chips... like 101m, and thus made this tweet)

It lines up, and could suggest maybe a slight over-tracking on here (but again its like 1 or 2m max).

Reading into it they said it surpassed 100 million shipped sometime during the 4th quarter, which could mean anytime from October to December. So entirely possible it could be several million higher. Though probably below 110 million as I am sure AMD would have said so if it was over that figure. Maybe even 105 million. Hard to say for sure.

Yes, we could have Xbox Series X|S overtracked. We will have a better idea once Sony releases their earnings report on February 13 and we know how many PS5s have been shipped at the end of 2024.

We get enough data that our estimates should be fairly close in the biggest markets like North America, Europe, and Japan. But for other places we get less information on and have to extrapolate for the missing data. The quarterly reports help us tweak our formulas, however, it is less accurate for Xbox as Microsoft reports hardware revenue up/down rather than just providing the number shipped. 

If Microsoft were to ever reveal sales/shipped numbers we would adjust our estimates to be more accurate. 

There's no room for 32 million (let alone Welfare's 36 million) Series units now with 75 million PS5. Not in Take Two's 94 million Gen 9 consoles. Not in AMD's 100 million consoles.

The Xbox Series X/S are under 28 million.

30 million and more is not true.

What's your take on things now that Sony has released their better than expected figures? 

Yes, we likely have it overtracked. I'm going to wait on Machina's thoughts on what we should do. We had already discussed the gap for PS5 so knew where we wanted it to be (~3M below shipment).

Take-Two used IDG estimates, which for the end of 2023 adjusted their own estimates from an original 77M up to 81M. So it is possible they could adjust up the 94M figure.

Quote from AMD CEO: "This console generation has been very strong. Highlighted by cumulative unit shipments surpassing 100 Million in the fourth quarter."

That suggests the 100M shipment figure for PS5 and XS happened sometime during the 4th quarter and unlikely at the end. I am guessing if it hit 110M during the quarter AMD would have said so.

Edit: Adding one more thing. Historically US has accounted four around 50% of Xbox for each generation and we have Xbox Series X|S at 16.48M at the end of 2024, which should be within a few % of NPD/Circana data given we have Xbox One data and they provided how much behind the Xbox Series X|S is to the Xbox One by %.

This would be much easier if Microsoft have us shipment figures like Sony and Nintendo do.