Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 36 million?

[trunkswd]

JRPGfan said:

DroidKnight said:

This site underestimated Xbox One hardware sales by about 8 million units before it got adjusted up. I wouldn't expect much different for the Series consoles. It is probably not as much off as last time, but I doubt it is being overestimated here.

https://x.com/Zuby_Tech/status/1887512553179185259?t=BUgYmawLslIKITNOtyKYfw

AMD President And CEO Lisa Su:
"This console generation has been very strong. Highlighted by cumulative unit shipments surpassing 100 Million in the fourth quarter."

 AMD announces Series S/X + Playstation 5, cross over 100m chips shipped.

At this time, Sony announced 71.03 million units.
This means Xbox has to be around 29m units (unless AMD over 100m, is like 101- 102m or more, but they then would have announced it sooner no?).

Xbox could legit be a tiny bit overtracked here (1-2m).

This doesn't look like its a repeat of the Xbox One, where we had to up numbers.

I think this lines up with Take2's numbers.
Suggesting that the Xbox is likely just barely over 30m (now).

Like if in november, the PS5 was at ~65m units, the Xbox then, was at ~29m units (giving 94m+ total)
Then in Janurary (or early feb. when numbers were collected), PS5 was over 71m.... suggesting Xbox barely crossed 30m by that point.
(lets say AMD noticed that at this point with shipments, they crosses over 100m chips... like 101m, and thus made this tweet)

It lines up, and could suggest maybe a slight over-tracking on here (but again its like 1 or 2m max).

Reading into it they said it surpassed 100 million shipped sometime during the 4th quarter, which could mean anytime from October to December. So entirely possible it could be several million higher. Though probably below 110 million as I am sure AMD would have said so if it was over that figure. Maybe even 105 million. Hard to say for sure.

Yes, we could have Xbox Series X|S overtracked. We will have a better idea once Sony releases their earnings report on February 13 and we know how many PS5s have been shipped at the end of 2024.

We get enough data that our estimates should be fairly close in the biggest markets like North America, Europe, and Japan. But for other places we get less information on and have to extrapolate for the missing data. The quarterly reports help us tweak our formulas, however, it is less accurate for Xbox as Microsoft reports hardware revenue up/down rather than just providing the number shipped. 

If Microsoft were to ever reveal sales/shipped numbers we would adjust our estimates to be more accurate. 

Last edited by trunkswd - on 08 February 2025