Definitely a rough drop in hardware revenue. Welfare estimates 800k units were shipped for the quarter which is actually similar to the amount of Xbox One's he estimates were shipped the same quarter in 2017 but the comparison against that is gonna get a lot tougher soon due to the the One X. The quarter that GTA 6 comes out will be a bright spot for it next year at least though.

The results are rough but 40m is still a sure thing as long as it's not notably overtracked here since it being at nearly 29m sold means it's probably shipped over 30m by now and the next Xbox console is at a minimum 2 years away. 50m is very likely off the table though unless it lasts until 2028 which was in the FTC leak but it wouldn't be surprising if those old plans change since it'd be a big ask to drag the Xbox Series out for a full 8 years.

@Pinkie_pie 

Xbox hardware sales are down 42% YOY, in its 4th year.
And it was down by double digits last year as well, iirc.
It's apparently selling at the same rate as WiiU now.

I don't think GTA6 will result in a big boost because it's in 2026. People don't only play GTA, so chances are they already got an Xbox Series, or PS5.

I think GTA 6 is aiming for an autumn 2025 release.

Aiming is the key word here.

Let's see once we get to next year

I think you and a lot of guys here are underestimating hiw big GTA 6 gonna be for this gen. It's one of the most anticipated games ever if not the most.  GTA 5 came out with the hype the series had built but now the series is much bigger. Over a decade since GTA 5 came out so it's been a long wait and that add to the hype. I'm predicting 30m first week and 50m this gen on PS5 and xbox series. 15m on xbox series and that will push xbox sales over 40m . Attach rate around 30% 

I just looked at GTA 5 attach rate for PS3 and 360. 29m sold on PS3 and 23m on 360. That's around 33% and 26% respectively . I think GTA 5 attach rate for 360 is closer to 30% because of the red ring of death

Do you really think Microsoft is going to raise the production of Series' units or stock them for GTA VI? By the time it drops it will be 500k per quarter. How much stock should it have for a meaningful boost in HW sales? 2 million? 5 million? I honestly don't see Microsoft stocking a year's (or more) worth of Series' units for the launch and even less at the end of the generation risking entire warehouses with unsellable merchandise.

GTA VI's impact on Series hardware will be minimal cuz the production will be the bare minimum by then if it's in production at all. And it will be worse the more it's delayed.

Xbox is finally going to have a steady line-up of games releasing. That in itself has the potential of bringing new interest into its hardware, creating a shift in its current trajectory. By the time GTA 6 does launch, the environment at that time may be very different than what it is today.

I will continue to remain optimistic and still believe it will have no problems clearing the 40 million mark.

Even with Xbox phasing out hardware. Do you think they will continue to make controllers? That seems profitable for them.

X360 sold ~5 million consoles after GTA V released.  It had already sold ~80 million.  That's just a 6.25% increase.  If XSeries is at 35m when GTA VI released, as you suggest, and it has a similar console sale rate as X360 (~6.25%), that's a final tally of 37.187 million.