I would still say you are very much wrong. I don't think BOTW will overtake ToTK in quarterly sales anytime soon, if ever. ToTK basically had a huge launch quarter but now is in it's evergreen stage already. But I don't see any scenario where ToTK plummets to below BOTW quarterly sales.

140 million as expected. Will be around 150 million when Switch 2 releases. Then sales will fall sharply. 155-165 million in lifetime sales.

I wonder if they stuffed the channel a bit expecting Wonder to be another 20m+ hit (which wasn't too farfetched given NSBWii's performance back in the day). We'll probably have a better grasp of things next quarter.

If that were the case than they wouldn’t have increased their forecast.

In terms of hardware shipments you mean? Possibly they may have overshipped a bit this quarter. It would explain the low expectations for next quarter. A 43% drop YoY.

VGChartz has the Switch selling through 5.74m for the previous quarter compared to the 6.9m shipped. I very much doubt VGChartz has undertracked it by that much so yes Nintendo probably shipped more than demand required.

15.5m will be a great result for the FY overall though so it doesn't really matter if the individual quarters were a bit skewed in comparison to sell-through.

Better than expected quarter and really strong one considering its age. The declines will be big the following few quarters but Nintendo has managed the late part of the Switch's life brilliantly. Nearly 140m hardware and 1.2b software is astounding.

They're like 900k above in stock compared to the previous year, though, so they might be slowly normalizing over the next few quarters (otherwise it'd be a 16m+ forecast).

Much better results than I expected. Initially, I predicted 7m+ for the holiday quarter but that was revised down to below 6m after more data had arrived. So 6.9m for Q3 is pleasantly surprising and Nintendo increasing its fiscal estimates is encouraging. My prediction of 150m+ shipped by March of 2025 is pretty much on lock now.

Interesting news on the digital sales right there.
Over the past five quarters listed in that slide, total digital sales make an average of 48.6% of all software sales and digital versions of packaged software make up an average of 55.9% of those digital sales.
So digital versions make up 27.2% of total sales vs physical software at 51.4%, meaning that the digital-physical split on software is approximately 34.6% digital to 65.4% physical for retail released games.