I'll be more surprise if Sony manages to ship 25M on the FY kkkkk

This is really hard to tell because they are both long term sellers. There is no real reason why either one can't come out on top. A Black Friday sales was just revealed for the Spiderman at 49.99. There is every reason to expect that Spiderman stays in the lead for the short term. Also, because PS5 is nearing midlife and Switch is EOL, I would bet on SM2 but honestly Nintendo can easily come back into contention by simply lowing the price at some point in the near feature... even just $10 on Black Friday would do 'Wonders'.

It will be probably a close race but look at the 10 days sales of Spiderman 2 is at 5 million vs 14 days of mario wonder 4.3 million and thats even with japan massive lead for mario wonder. Then mario rpg is also coming out that's another mario game that mario wonder has to compete with, and ps5 is in its prime and sony having amazing deals for black friday because they want to reach impossible numbers then i see spider man 2 wining comfortably  

I'm not seeing any news about Spiderman 2 for $50 on BF. But that will sell some units.

Race is not over, but MW will sell more.

Speaking broadly, Nintendo making a Switch 2 Wonder version especially if it was done early on would have the most effect in regard to wonders potential legs, but  speaking from the perspective of this thread the parameters set by Curl in the heading were Spiderman 2 sales v Wonder Switch only sales so looking at the pro's and cons for each title, in Spidermans case the install base is considered a weakness compared to the Switch's, but off setting that is the fact that it's launched at a time where the PS5 install base is very much on the rise and selling at a pace that should see it double in size over the next few years leaving spiderman well placed to attract many of those gamers going forward. Now on Wonder's positive side it selling great is a given, but for this exercise the Switch 2's impact on wonders Switch sales is the unknown factor and may be why the margin isn't as large as some people think it will be.

NPD is out and Spiderman crushed Mario with Wonder coming in at 21st for the year. There is a huge caveat though as Nintendo doesn't publish digital sales. Because of Nintendo's insistence on hiding digital sales, this means we can only depend on official numbers to see if Mario can catch Spiderman...

My analysis was spot on and with spiderman 2 being bundled and switch in decline it's gonna be a easy win for spiderman 2. 

Mario Wonder sales are disappointing to say the least. I know it will have better legs than Spiderman 2and will sell better in November en December. This isn't the question.

I thought that Mario Wonder would sell at least 20 millions easily and now it looks very unlikely with the Switch being near the end , the legs can not be that big.

You do realise that anywhere from 25-50% of mario wonders sales aren't included here due to digital sales not being counted for nintendo and this counts dollar sales not the number of units sold. 

Yes I do but it's probably more like 20% since spiderman 2 was beating mario wonder by 700k in 10 days vs 14 and thats with mario wonder havinga huge lead in japan, but even more telling is how close switch and xbox are in units. ps5 is gonna be a huge seller and spiderman 2 is bundled, it's gonna be a easy win. switch is on it's way out.