Super mario 3 was litterly the best game ever by a land slide when it came. This is not even remotely the case for wonder.

Exactly, it was averaging weekly sales between 1.5-1.8 millions in December, if Wonder does the same, it would have already doubled it’s first two weeks and weren’t counting November into that.

The comparison with other games is pointless when it comes to 2D Mario, launch sales never mattered, their leg is what drives the sales.

Dude, at this point you should just wait and see, each exemple someone gives you, it seems like you have the perfect specific reason to justify why it sells or not. 

End of cycle or not, there’s enough past and current data to form a good idea on how this game will sell in the future and like it or not, there’s no reasons it won’t follow the trend we’re seeing on almost every Nintendo games this generation.

I love how you don't mention new super mario deluxe which is practicly a new 2d mario for 95% of the user base since no one bought a wiiu. That's a much better comparison then NSMB on wii which I think had the best holiday ever for a console that year and NSMB was bundled with it .

NSMB Wii wasn’t bundled with the console that year, it’s sales are purely on its own. Yet it’s still the closest comparison you can get, a brand new 2D Mario game, releasing just before the Holiday, past the console peak.

You want to know why Deluxe really won’t matter?

One, the existence a previous game in a series on the same system isn’t a deterrent for future sales, annual series are a proof of that.

Second, because Nintendo barely promote it. You know it exist because you see it on the shelves and that’s it, but it’s just a release made to patch a schedule, Wonder will be on the forefront of Switch marketing for the reminder of it’s life.

You want a comparison, look NSMB Wii, not other games.

Spider man 2 did 5 million in 10 days. Lol all the people thought I was trolling and saying I don't know what I'm talking about.

Look at the wii games sales at the end of its cycle  Mario galaxy 2 and zelda skyward they had very weak sales compared to its predecessors. Nintendo games get a huge boost when system is in it's prime and on fire and switch being end of its cycle I don't expect games to have the same legs.

You (and me) are also owed an apology for the iPhone.  RE8 runs like complete crap.  So much for ps5 in your pocket.  

Kotaku seems to think in 2 to 3 iPhone generations it will run RE8 which launched in 2021 and isn't even a good looking game.  Sounds awesome for a $1000+ device.  

Short term I would bet on Spiderman but mid to long term Mario Wonder. 30M should be the ceiling (and very hard to get) for SM2, MW can go even higher.

I think it super odd how people when talking about playing games a PS5/Series X is to expensive but a 1000 smartphone playing it poorly is a good deal (sure will go for everything non-gaming to justify it).