After months of being pummelled with trade tariffs and security threats from the United States and years of pushing back against a rising China, the European Union on Tuesday sounded a death knell for the global rules-based order.
In its "Strategic Foresight Report 2025", designed to steel the bloc for a risk-laden future that looks darker by the day, the European Commission said "we are witnessing the erosion of the rules-based international order and fracturing of the global landscape".
"Geopolitical turmoil and erosion of global multilateral order further enhance the need for autonomy in the capability to protect current and future generations," read the report, adding that "a return to the previous status quo seems increasingly unlikely".
Alluding to, but rarely referring to, China or the US by name, the commission called on the EU to reduce its dangerous levels of dependence on the US for digital and financial services and China for critical minerals.
"Recent years show that everything can be weaponised: supply chains, migration, trade, humanitarian aid, space and information," according to the report, seen as a curtain-raiser for an annual speech from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday.
Reliance on other powers for minerals, the report said, "poses serious economic and security risks, especially given that the export restrictions on industrial raw materials have seen a more than five-fold increase since 2023".
"Excessive dependency on key services provided by non-EU entities in sectors such as digital and finance exposes the EU to risks, including data security vulnerabilities, service disruptions, espionage and economic coercion," it added, noting that "around 70 per cent of the EU's cloud infrastructure is controlled by three US companies: Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Google".
Post-war, rules-based global order dying, European Union warns in new report | South China Morning Post
