Not yet, it's still a tight race, but I'm firmly believing lately that Trump hit his ceiling long ago, not even the assassination attempt did anything notable for his polling, neither did the RNC or his VP announcement. Meanwhile all the momentum is with Harris, she completely reversed Biden's cratering numbers and she continues to close the gap, polls continue to improve for her and this is before her VP announcement and the DNC, before her months worth of campaigning. I'm not sure how Trump improves even with months worth of campaigning when both he and JD Vance are incapable of shutting up, spew out disgusting, racist and sexist shit on the regular and not even him almost being killed did anything major for him.

They've ripped the masks off and gone full on racist as their angle.

Mike Johnson must be fucking melting down in his office

But Harris husband is right. Harris team seems so on the ball.

In a sane world that would be a given, especially with the pantload that is JD Vance already tanking him before he outdid Biden’s performance at the debate with this clusterfuck of an interview.

But this world is not as sane as it should be. Don’t underestimate the evangelicals. 

As the race gets tighter, Trump and his buddies will focus increasingly on mobilizing and firing up their base. That in turn, however, will make them lose even more ground. Too bad for them that they have nowhere else to go. There will be hardly anyone who will buy into a "uniting America" narrative from the Trump camp, nevermind that it's offputting to the MAGA base.

The Democrats would have to pick a bad VP to kill their strong momentum now, but all the speculation about the likeliest picks leads to a conclusion of "there's no bad choice." Some are still better than others, but going outright wrong doesn't seem to be in the cards.

The "let's call them weird" strategy of the Democrats is simple and effective. Instead of explaining why Trump is bad, voters feel inclined to look up why Trump is weird and there's tons of material out there, both old and new. The messaging had been a huge problem with Biden, because what we see now isn't so much a change of the message, but rather how it is delivered. Biden had these vibes of "grandpa going on a tangent, just ignore him."

Now the Democrats just need to stay focused and humble while watching Trump self-destruct.

The poker analogy is a good one. Thought he had the election in the bag, now he's going on tilt and getting desperate but the more he leans into base pandering the more he will turn off independents and undecideds. Let's hope it dooms his campaign.

Have they grown in significant numbers since 2020? 2022?   Have they been ignited to vote any more so than in 2020? 2022?  Their influence and vote volume are not going to increase in any tangible or appreciable numbers to make them any more of a threat than before and they did not make sway then either.

However, minority voters that are typically disinterested in voting are now showing a significant interest.  More to the point, the rhetoric from Trump and the rise of Harris has moved many typically low turnout voters to to vote.  And they are heavily leaning Harris.  

Also, keep in mind regarding most polls.  They use a group known as 'likely voters'.  These are prior already existing known voters.  These volumes won't fluctuate much.  It's the new voters that are going to absolutely make or break this election.  And as I stated before, they are heavily leaning to Harris.

- Wtf is with Trump's obsession with Hannibal Lecter.

- Harris response to Trump's racist tirade was perfect.

- More evidence of Trump's cognitive decline