In light of the prediction leagues proving to be fairly accurate as an overall guess of weekly market trends, I would like to propose something new - a scale in which we measure the likelihood of sales events being met. For the 3 consoles currently supported, we will break down 5 scenarios we think can happen, as assign percentages to the likelihood of that scenario happening (percentages must equal 100%). In time, we can use the most heavily supported assessments from each person to lay out the 5 most expected scenarios for each console. For this to work, I think we need at least 30 people to break their scenarios, and for a more normal distribution, I would like all assessments to be included - no matter how delusional they may seem to me or someone else, just to offset the delusions at the opposite end of the spectrum - to set bias against bias.

Mathematically, we just look for sales expectation for each console which are most common, add the percentage each person gave for that scenario, and divide by the number of people who gave it. 5 most common sales numbers for each console will be used. Once the 5 most common sales numbers expectations are determined (simply by counting), we simply add up the % weight given by each person for that sales estimate and divivde by the number of people to figure out the likelihood of the console selling that much. In other words, if 10 others think the likelihood Wii will sell 75 million is 5%, and I think the likelihood is 35%, then those people and I would have our expectations averaged out - putting our collective expectation of Wii selling 75 million at 7.72%. Now if 8 people think Wii will sell 50 million units, then we will average out the expected likelihood of that scenario, if it is in the top 5 scenarios overall.

Here is my breakdown for worldwide sales through Dec 31, 2012 - note more than 5 scenarios can be given - but for simplicity sake, only the 5 most likely from each person will be used...

Wii:

Scenario 1 - 75 million sold - 35%

Scenario 2 - 65 million sold - 30%

Scenario 3 - 40 million sold - 20%

Scenario 4 - 100 million sold - 10%

Scenario 5 - 120 million sold - 5%

Xbox 360:

Scenario 1 - 55 million sold - 25%

Scenario 2 - 40 million sold - 20%

Scenario 3 - 70 million sold - 18%

Scenario 4 - 30 million sold - 17%

Scenario 5 - 25 million sold - 10%

Scenario 6 - 80 million sold - 6%

Scenario 7 - 18 million sold 4%

PS3:

Scenario 1 - 60 million sold - 18%

Scenario 2- 40 million sold - 16%

Scenario 3 - 30 million sold - 14%

Scenario 4 - 70 million sold - 12%

Scenario 5 - 50 million sold - 10%

Scenario 6 - 80 million sold - 8%

Scenario 7 - 20 million sold - 7%

Scenario 8 - 90 million sold - 6%

Scenario 9 - 125 million sold - 5%

Scenario 10 - 15 million sold - 4%

In light of the prediction leagues proving to be fairly accurate as an overall guess of weekly market trends, I would like to propose something new - a scale in which we measure the likelihood of sales events being met. For the 3 consoles currently supported, we will break down 5 scenarios we think can happen, as assign percentages to the likelihood of that scenario happening (percentages must equal 100%). In time, we can use the most heavily supported assessments from each person to lay out the 5 most expected scenarios for each console. For this to work, I think we need at least 30 people to break their scenarios, and for a more normal distribution, I would like all assessments to be included - no matter how delusional they may seem to me or someone else, just to offset the delusions at the opposite end of the spectrum - to set bias against bias.

Mathematically, we just look for sales expectation for each console which are most common, add the percentage each person gave for that scenario, and divide by the number of people who gave it. 5 most common sales numbers for each console will be used. Once the 5 most common sales numbers expectations are determined (simply by counting), we simply add up the % weight given by each person for that sales estimate and divivde by the number of people to figure out the likelihood of the console selling that much. In other words, if 10 others think the likelihood Wii will sell 75 million is 5%, and I think the likelihood is 35%, then those people and I would have our expectations averaged out - putting our collective expectation of Wii selling 75 million at 7.72%. Now if 8 people think Wii will sell 50 million units, then we will average out the expected likelihood of that scenario, if it is in the top 5 scenarios overall.

Here is my breakdown for worldwide sales through Dec 31, 2012 - note more than 5 scenarios can be given - but for simplicity sake, only the 5 most likely from each person will be used...

Wii:

Scenario 1 - 75 million sold - 35%

Scenario 2 - 65 million sold - 30%

Scenario 3 - 40 million sold - 20%

Scenario 4 - 100 million sold - 10%

Scenario 5 - 120 million sold - 5%

Xbox 360:

Scenario 1 - 55 million sold - 25%

Scenario 2 - 40 million sold - 20%

Scenario 3 - 70 million sold - 18%

Scenario 4 - 30 million sold - 17%

Scenario 5 - 25 million sold - 10%

Scenario 6 - 80 million sold - 6%

Scenario 7 - 18 million sold 4%

PS3:

Scenario 1 - 60 million sold - 18%

Scenario 2- 40 million sold - 16%

Scenario 3 - 30 million sold - 14%

Scenario 4 - 70 million sold - 12%

Scenario 5 - 50 million sold - 10%

Scenario 6 - 80 million sold - 8%

Scenario 7 - 20 million sold - 7%

Scenario 8 - 90 million sold - 6%

Scenario 9 - 125 million sold - 5%

Scenario 10 - 15 million sold - 4%