The duration of the moneyhat for console exclusive Valheim has been confirmed as 6 months.

Xbox mobile store could launch as soon as next year if the deal goes through according to Phil Spencer. 

"Xbox boss Phil Spencer, has revealed that Microsoft's Xbox mobile gaming store could launch as early as next year, providing the Activision Blizzard acquisition is approved. Following the rule changes to Apple and Google's app stores, which are expected to be enforced by March 2024"

What are the rule changes coming from March 2024? I assume that Apple has to allow other stores on IOS but Google already does. You can install other appstores on android already. Does google mandate which stores come packaged with a phone currently and that is being changed or something?

Weird how you said Starfield will be huge and we all forgot how big Bethesda games are and here you are not even mentioning it. 

With Apple it simply forces them to allow the install of alternative app stores on iOS. As you said though, Google already allows that, so Microsoft has no restrictions in putting an App store onto Android. How it affects Google is in other ways unrelated to an individual App store, such as allowing developers to use competing payment service providers for in-app sales so they can circumvent the charge that Android/iOS enforce.

The issue is that it's still hard because Android/iOS have a large network of consumers who won't navigate outside of it, so ultimately Microsoft would still have to have a presence in the iOS/Android App stores to be a success. So with Apple, it helps Microsoft create an App store, with Google it really doesn't but the act will benefit Microsoft in other ways.

Here is what the CMA is trying to enforce on Apple (which could be directed to Google next).

1. Compelling Apple, and other app store operators, to review and amend guidelines to ensure cloud gaming providers are not unduly impacted
2. Allowing prompts that let users know when a cloud gaming app is available as a web app
3. Making app store approval and rejection processes more transparent and consistent
4. Enabling sideloading of native apps on iOS
5. Enabling the distribution of web apps through Apple's App Store
6. Enabling the installation of alternative app stores on iOS

The Digital Markets Act from EC.

1. They must allow users to install third party apps or app stores that use or interoperate with the gatekeeper's operating system
2. They must allow users to easily uninstall pre-installed apps or change default settings on operating systems, virtual assistants and web browsers that steer them to the gatekeeper's own products and services
3. They must allow businesses that use the gatekeeper's platform to promote external offers and conclude contracts with customers outside the platform
4. They must not require app developers to use certain services the gatekeeper provides, such as payment systems, in order to have their software appear in the gatekeeper's app store
5. They must not use any data for business users that compete with them or their own platform

Microsoft's best bet would be if EC/CMA force Apple/Google to allow the advertising of other App stores on the Android/iOS App stores, I think 2 and 5 from CMA might wiggle into that and 3 from the EC. #2 from the EC could match up with what you said.

But I really don't think Google is much of an issue here, I think they're just being grouped in with Apple because it will affect them still in other ways and those ways still benefit Microsoft but Google isn't really a roadblock in creating another App store on Android.

The combination of being on gamepass day one and not being on PlayStation will hurt it's sales in comparison to previous Bethesda games like Fallout 4. But I expect it's going to sell incredibly well on Steam regardless. We won't be given sales numbers by Microsoft only players, but I expect it will sell over 10m copies this year so it'll still be up there with the best selling titles regardless.

Fifa, CoD and Hogwarts Legacy will be the best selling titles of the year. Starfield could beat Spiderman 2. It took Ragnarok 11 weeks to get to 11m. Spiderman 2 may become the best selling PlayStation game of all time eventually but unlike Ragnarok it is only on PS5 so selling faster than it will be tough.

BOTW2 isn't going to sell better than Hogwarts Legacy this year. Lifetime it won't do as well as the first game and I don't see it selling 20m units in 2023 while I'm sure Hogwarts can pass that mark.

This would be my guess (assuming I'm not forgetting any major titles):

1st/2nd. Fifa/CoD (whatever they always sell)
3rd. Hogwarts Legacy (20m-24m)
4th. Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (14m-18m)
5th. Diablo 4 (12m-17m)
6th. Starfield (10m-15m)
7th. Spiderman 2 (~10m)

To be fair, its not a demo its a beta and like all betas, if you are playing you are a beta tester.  A beta is used to work out kinks and issues within the system, its unfortnate that people forget this.

Not sure if anyone posted this but just saw Market Share for the Xbox Series vs PS5 in the UK for 2022.

In terms of PS4 vs Xbox One, 57% of sales were for PS4 and 43% for Xbox One. On PS5 vs Xbox Series it's pretty much the same (56% vs 44%). It's close

— Christopher Dring (@Chris_Dring) March 16, 2023

PS5 56% to Xbox Series 44% so very close in that market. That'll be why we didn't hear this one from MS lol.

The problem with looking at a current marketshare number like that is that it doesn't take into account trends. Sony was supply bound from launch until January 2023, but in recent weeks since Sony corrected their production issues and stock skyrocketed in January, PS5 has been outselling Xbox Series by something like 3:1 in the UK. Depending on how long that trend holds for, the lifetime marketshare could to rapidly shift in Sony's favor, by the end of this year it will likely be closer to 65/35 in favor of PS5 even with a sales boost from Starfield and a possible price cut on Series S and Series X for the Holiday, and if the trend of PS5 substantially outselling XS continues into 2024 it could be worse than 70/30 for Xbox by the end of 2024 possibly.

CMA need to look at trends, not just the current marketshare. At best the ABK merger might slow or stop Xbox's marketshare slide if it is allowed to go through, it certainly won't suddenly catapult Xbox ahead of Sony in marketshare in the UK. A few smaller exclusives such as a new Crash Bandicoot or Spyro or Tony Hawk's or possible new Prototype aren't going to change the marketshare very much in Xbox's favor; CoD will remain multiplat for 10 years, and since Diablo 4 and Overwatch 2 are just now releasing in 2022 and 2023, the Diablo and Overwatch franchises will remain multiplat the rest of this gen pretty much before there is a possibility of timed or full Xbox exclusivity on Overwatch 3 or Diablo 5.

We don't really know how much PS5 is beating the Xbox Series in last couple of months in the UK. Yes PS5 has received massive gains YoY but we don't know how far behind it was last year where Xbox won Jan/Feb 2022. It's definitely not as bad as 5:1 though.

Absolute worse case scenario for Xbox in February (by assuming they only outsold PS5 by 1 unit last year) is 3.6:1, can't work out January unfortunately as no Xbox YoY data but as PS5 improved 98% in January and not 316% like February it's probably close to 2:1 at worst.

Don't know if there's anyway to see UK estimates for VGChartz anymore. It's on the legacy weekly charts but that's it.

You're right they should be looking at trends though.

I may have been thinking about US instead of UK with the 5:1. The gap has been dismal here. If you follow Welfare on twitter, an independent console sales tracker, his tracking has shown Xbox stock in the US falling off a cliff at the same time that PS5 stock is skyrocketing. Something catastrophic seems to have happened to Xbox production. 

That is a roughly 9:1 gap he is tracking in the US for March NPD. He notes that it's not a demand issue, Series X is very much so still high in demand, it's only Series S that isn't selling well at the current price, but for some reason Xbox just aren't making anywhere near enough Series X stock still. Phil needs to correct this and fast. It's time for the first official price cut on S, and time for Xbox to sign some huge chipset production contracts for Series X.