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Angelus said:
Ryuu96 said:

If I were to guess the line-up order, I'd say - Tomb Raider > Fable > Perfect Dark > Deus Ex > Eidos New IP.

5 AAA games in 5 years is a lot for 2 studios

5 AAA games by March 2028 seems like alot at first, but you have to remember several things:

1. The total Crystal + Eidos employee count is nearly 900 devs. 

2. The Initiative is co-developing on one of those 5 games, Perfect Dark, and the two of them have been working on it together for nearly 1.5 years already.

3. Playground games is co-developing on another of those 5 games, Fable, and considering the Playground RPG team is around 200 devs, I'd guess only around 50-100 of Eidos' ~600 devs is on Fable. The game has also been in development since 2017 and should be releasing in early 2024 I'd imagine. That leaves around 250 devs each or more to be working on the next Deus Ex and their next IP already, giving them 5 years to finish them before the end of the March 2028 window.



I'd say Fable is Holiday 24, Avowed will be early 2024...Although there were rumours from Jez that they've increased the scope of it, Lol.

If Tomb Raider is further along in development than everyone thinks then maybe that'll be Holiday 24 as well.

Amazon coming on fairly late though, Square probably funded the first half and then Amazon the next half.

What exactly does Embracer do? Lol.



shikamaru317 said:
Ryuu96 said:

Wise.

Recently Xbox admitted that Game Pass cannibalises sales (which was obviously going to happen at some point) and I'm assuming that some Twitter console warriors are therefore concluding that Game Pass must be bad for developers without knowing the financial agreements between Xbox and said developer, that is what I'm assuming Mike is responding to.

Yeah, these people act like these 3rd party devs are giving their games to Xbox to put onto Gamepass for free, or that Xbox gives the devs only a chump-change payment. That very clearly isn't the case. For instance we heard that Xbox's Gamepass payment for Guardians of the Galaxy was between $5-10m, and that wasn't even a day one Gamepass deal, that came to Gamepass 4 months after release, and considering that Guardians of the Galaxy had fallen as low as $20 per copy at that point, it means that Xbox effectively paid Square Enix for 250-500k lost sales as a result of being on Gamepass. And of course some will have taken advantage of the Gamepass discount to buy copies of the game as well.

I can safely guarantee you that these larger day one Gamepass deal payments are well over the $5-10m for Guardians of the Galaxy, which came 4 months after release. Day one Gamepass deals on big games like Atomic Heart, Wo Long, Back 4 Blood, Sniper Elite 5, and Outriders likely all had payments of $30m or more associated with them, $30m is enough to compensate for around 428k lost sales at a $70 price tag as a result of being on Gamepass. 

That's way too much IMO. Those games are either new IPs or in case of Sniper Elite not necessarily mainstream. The publishers couldn't expect those games to sell 428k units at full price on a single console so I see no reason that MS dishes out that much money. Btw. $30m is almost enough to completely fund those games and in turn make them full Xbox exclusive.



Around the Network

Hogwart's Legacy gained another 4k TA users today, moving it above Undertale and Dark Souls 2. For those curious how it is stacking up against other RPG's/action RPG's, here is where it falls in the ranking currently, less than a week after it's official release date:

(Bolded games were or are currently on Gamepass, or were on Games with Gold in the past and will have a non-sales player boost as a result. Some of these also may have been artificially boosted with F2P weekends, but too much work to look those up)

  1. TES V Skyrim (360) + Skyrim SE (XB1 + XS)- 659k
  2. Borderlands 2 (360 + XB1)- 640k
  3. Destiny (360 + XB1)- 458k
  4. Fallout 4- 455k
  5. Borderlands (360 + XB1)- 438k
  6. Dead Island (360 + XB1)- 420k
  7. Destiny 2- 412k
  8. Fallout 3- 409k
  9. Star Wars Jedi Fallen Order- 388k
  10. TES V Skyrim (360)- 376k
  11. Borderlands (360)- 370k
  12. Fable 3- 367k
  13. Tom Clancy's The Division- 354k
  14. Minecraft Dungeons- 353k
  15. Destiny (XB1)- 352k
  16. Witcher 3 (base game + complete edition)- 350k
  17. Fable 2- 335k
  18. Borderlands 2 (360)- 332k
  19. The Outer Worlds- 309k
  20. Fallout New Vegas- 305k
  21. Middle Earth Shadow of Mordor (base + GOTY Edition)- 302k
  22. Assassin's Creed Odyssey- 300k
  23. Mass Effect- 299k
  24. Dead Island (360)- 294k
  25. Diablo 3 (base + Ultimate Edition)- 290k
  26. Assassin's Creed Origins- 287k
  27. TES 4 Oblivion- 284k
  28. TES V Skyrim SE- 283k 
  29. Monster Hunter World- 282k
  30. Cyberpunk 2077- 271k
  31. Borderlands 2 (XB1)- 270k
  32. Warframe- 260k
  33. Dark Souls- 252k
  34. Fallout 76- 250k
  35. Mass Effect 2- 242k
  36. Borderlands The Pre Sequel (360 + XB1)- 241K
  37. The Elder Scrolls Online- 241k
  38. Dragon Age Inquisition- 237k
  39. Outriders- 232k
  40. Witcher 3- 231k
  41. Assassin's Creed Valhalla- 230k
  42. Borderlands 3- 227k
  43. Tom Clancy's The Division 2- 221k
  44. Mass Effect 3- 217k
  45. Mass Effect Andromeda- 216k
  46. Diablo 3 Ultimate Edition- 203k
  47. Final Fantasy 15- 190k
  48. Lords of the Fallen- 184k
  49. Dragon Age Origins- 183k
  50. Borderlands The PreSequel (XB1)- 182k
  51. Anthem- 178k
  52. Neverwinter- 178k
  53. South Park The Stick of Truth (360 + XB1)- 177k
  54. Elden Ring- 166k
  55. Middle-Earth Shadow of War- 164k
  56. Deus Ex Human Revolution- 162k
  57. The Ascent- 160k
  58. Dark Souls 3- 160k
  59. Witcher 2- 159k
  60. Child of Light- 157k
  61. Middle Earth Shadow of Mordor- 156k
  62. Final Fantasy 13- 154k
  63. Fable Anniversary- 148k
  64. Middle Earth Shadow of Mordor GOTY- 146k
  65. Nier Automata- 139k
  66. Kingdom Hearts 3- 133k
  67. Marvel Ultimate Alliance- 132k
  68. Remnant: From the Ashes- 130k
  69. Dead Island Definitive Edition (XB1)- 126k
  70. Trove- 124k
  71. Dragon Age 2- 124k
  72. Mass Effect Legendary Edition Trilogy- 123k
  73. Witcher 3 Complete Edition- 119k
  74. South Park: The Stick of Truth (360)- 118k
  75. Dauntless- 115k
  76. Dust: An Elysian Tale- 113k
  77. South Park The Fractured But Whole- 110k
  78. Ascend: Hand of Kul- 109k
  79. Destiny (360)- 106k
  80. Kingdoms of Amalur (360 + XB1)- 103k
  81. Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing- 102k
  82. Mortal Shell Enhanced Edition- 101k
  83. Dungeons and Dragons: Dark Alliance- 96k
  84. Lost Odyssey- 94k
  85. Too Human- 93k
  86. Hogwarts Legacy- 93k
Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 16 February 2023



Barozi said:
shikamaru317 said:

Yeah, these people act like these 3rd party devs are giving their games to Xbox to put onto Gamepass for free, or that Xbox gives the devs only a chump-change payment. That very clearly isn't the case. For instance we heard that Xbox's Gamepass payment for Guardians of the Galaxy was between $5-10m, and that wasn't even a day one Gamepass deal, that came to Gamepass 4 months after release, and considering that Guardians of the Galaxy had fallen as low as $20 per copy at that point, it means that Xbox effectively paid Square Enix for 250-500k lost sales as a result of being on Gamepass. And of course some will have taken advantage of the Gamepass discount to buy copies of the game as well.

I can safely guarantee you that these larger day one Gamepass deal payments are well over the $5-10m for Guardians of the Galaxy, which came 4 months after release. Day one Gamepass deals on big games like Atomic Heart, Wo Long, Back 4 Blood, Sniper Elite 5, and Outriders likely all had payments of $30m or more associated with them, $30m is enough to compensate for around 428k lost sales at a $70 price tag as a result of being on Gamepass. 

That's way too much IMO. Those games are either new IPs or in case of Sniper Elite not necessarily mainstream. The publishers couldn't expect those games to sell 428k units at full price on a single console so I see no reason that MS dishes out that much money. Btw. $30m is almost enough to completely fund those games and in turn make them full Xbox exclusive.

You could be right, $30m may be a bit too high of an estimate, but if GOTG was $5-10m 4 months after release, I'd guess at least $15-20m for some of these  bigger day one Gamepass games. Sniper Elite is also bigger than you think, the first 8 games in the series sold a combined 20m copies (Sniper Elite 1-4 and Zombie Army 1-4, so the 20m figure was before Sniper Elite 5), which averages out to 2.5m sales per game in the series, but the later games sold more than the earlier games did. I sure hope that Xbox compensated them well for Sniper Elite 5, as the day one Gamepass majorly hurt it's Xbox sales, in the UK 92% of it's first week retail copies were on PS4/PS5, compared to just 8% on Xbox One and Xbox Series X. A normal game sells about twice that many retail copies on Xbox in the UK, so day one Gamepass effectively halved it's launch sales on Xbox.

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 16 February 2023

shikamaru317 said:

Hogwart's Legacy gained another 4k TA users today, moving it above Undertale and Dark Souls 2. For those curious how it is stacking up against other RPG's/action RPG's, here is where it falls in the ranking currently, less than a week after it's official release date:

(Bolded games were or are currently on Gamepass, or were on Games with Gold in the past and will have a non-sales player boost as a result. Some of these also may have been artificially boosted with F2P weekends, but too much work to look those up)

  1. TES V Skyrim (360) + Skyrim SE (XB1 + XS)- 659k
  2. Borderlands 2 (360 + XB1)- 640k
  3. Destiny (360 + XB1)- 458k
  4. Fallout 4- 455k
  5. Borderlands (360 + XB1)- 438k
  6. Dead Island (360 + XB1)- 420k
  7. Destiny 2- 412k
  8. Fallout 3- 409k
  9. Star Wars Jedi Fallen Order- 388k
  10. TES V Skyrim (360)- 376k
  11. Borderlands (360)- 370k
  12. Fable 3- 367k
  13. Tom Clancy's The Division- 354k
  14. Minecraft Dungeons- 353k
  15. Destiny (XB1)- 352k
  16. Witcher 3 (base game + complete edition)- 350k
  17. Fable 2- 335k
  18. Borderlands 2 (360)- 332k
  19. The Outer Worlds- 309k
  20. Fallout New Vegas- 305k
  21. Middle Earth Shadow of Mordor (base + GOTY Edition)- 302k
  22. Assassin's Creed Odyssey- 300k
  23. Mass Effect- 299k
  24. Dead Island (360)- 294k
  25. Diablo 3 (base + Ultimate Edition)- 290k
  26. Assassin's Creed Origins- 287k
  27. TES 4 Oblivion- 284k
  28. TES V Skyrim SE- 283k 
  29. Monster Hunter World- 282k
  30. Cyberpunk 2077- 271k
  31. Borderlands 2 (XB1)- 270k
  32. Warframe- 260k
  33. Dark Souls- 252k
  34. Fallout 76- 250k
  35. Mass Effect 2- 242k
  36. Borderlands The Pre Sequel (360 + XB1)- 241K
  37. The Elder Scrolls Online- 241k
  38. Dragon Age Inquisition- 237k
  39. Outriders- 232k
  40. Witcher 3- 231k
  41. Assassin's Creed Valhalla- 230k
  42. Borderlands 3- 227k
  43. Tom Clancy's The Division 2- 221k
  44. Mass Effect 3- 217k
  45. Mass Effect Andromeda- 216k
  46. Diablo 3 Ultimate Edition- 203k
  47. Final Fantasy 15- 190k
  48. Lords of the Fallen- 184k
  49. Dragon Age Origins- 183k
  50. Borderlands The PreSequel (XB1)- 182k
  51. Anthem- 178k
  52. Neverwinter- 178k
  53. South Park The Stick of Truth (360 + XB1)- 177k
  54. Elden Ring- 166k
  55. Middle-Earth Shadow of War- 164k
  56. Deus Ex Human Revolution- 162k
  57. The Ascent- 160k
  58. Dark Souls 3- 160k
  59. Witcher 2- 159k
  60. Child of Light- 157k
  61. Middle Earth Shadow of Mordor- 156k
  62. Final Fantasy 13- 154k
  63. Fable Anniversary- 148k
  64. Middle Earth Shadow of Mordor GOTY- 146k
  65. Nier Automata- 139k
  66. Kingdom Hearts 3- 133k
  67. Marvel Ultimate Alliance- 132k
  68. Remnant: From the Ashes- 130k
  69. Dead Island Definitive Edition (XB1)- 126k
  70. Trove- 124k
  71. Dragon Age 2- 124k
  72. Mass Effect Legendary Edition Trilogy- 123k
  73. Witcher 3 Complete Edition- 119k
  74. South Park: The Stick of Truth (360)- 118k
  75. Dauntless- 115k
  76. Dust: An Elysian Tale- 113k
  77. South Park The Fractured But Whole- 110k
  78. Ascend: Hand of Kul- 109k
  79. Destiny (360)- 106k
  80. Kingdoms of Amalur (360 + XB1)- 103k
  81. Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing- 102k
  82. Mortal Shell Enhanced Edition- 101k
  83. Dungeons and Dragons: Dark Alliance- 96k
  84. Lost Odyssey- 94k
  85. Too Human- 93k
  86. Hogwarts Legacy- 93k

Destiny 2 turned F2P from what I remember so it's not really comparable.
Cyberpunk has a free trial
Warframe is F2P
Borderlands 3 definitely was part of the Free Play Days
The Division 2 too
Neverwinter is F2P
Trove is F2P
Dauntless is F2P
Lost Odyssey and Too Human were made avaiable for free for a few weeks

Basically Hogwarts Legacy isn't really comparable (yet) to the rest as 90% of games on that list have an inflated player count.



I sure hope they have alot to announce. Their current release schedule is looking pretty barren as we have no release window games beyond Assassin's Creed Mirage, Skull & Bones, Avatar Frontiers of Pandora, The Crew Motorfest, and Trackmania console ports, and all of those are scheduled for 2023. We know nothing about their 2024 release schedule currently, as Beyond Good and Evil 2, Assassin's Creed Codename Red, Assassin's Creed Codename Hexe, Prince of Persia Sands of Time Remake, Tom Clancy's The Division: Heartland, XDefiant, and Ubisoft Massive's Star Wars game are all currently without release windows.