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Ryuu96 said:

Can't people just play video games, without sending death threats or console warring or all of the other weird nonsense?



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Ryuu96 said:

For the sake of the people in this poll I would hope that what this person is saying, who said Xbox games were coming to other platforms back in December, is incorrect.

We do have to ask ourselves why 116 days after the Activision deal is complete we still see none of their titles on Gamepass. Bethesda's were added within a couple of days. We might get some idea next week, perhaps along with the back catalog of activision titles finally coming.

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 06 February 2024

Doc_Darks video was amazing, shit was legit hilarious 😂😂



Ride The Chariot || Games Complete ‘24 Edition

the-pi-guy said:
shikamaru317 said:

I doubt they will go that high, but I'll just say that we saw what happens when Sony gets a monopoly in the past, PS2 sold 150m to the <25m each of OG Xbox and Gamecube. The end result was an extremely cocky and full of themselves Playstation, who charged $500 and $600 respectively for the two PS3 launch models (1 year after Xbox 360 launched for $400), and then went around making statements like Ken Kutaragi's "the PS3 is for consumers who think to themselves 'I will work more hours to buy one' " and "Xbox 360 is more like Xbox 1.5", and Jack Tretton likening the various consoles to food stating that "PS3 is surf & turf, PS2 is your favorite burger restaurant, Wii is just a lollipop, and Xbox 360 is a restaurant where you get sick because the cook isn't reliable". Sony were remarkably full of themselves after the huge success of the PS2, and that monopoly did nothing good for consumers.

Now let's look at how this current gen has been shaping up. PS5 is tracking roughly in line with PS4 (which sold 117m lifetime), Xbox Series is tracking behind Xbox One (which sold 58m lifetime). That was before this imminent announcement of multiple Xbox exclusives going multiplatform, which will certainly cause Xbox Series sales to track even further behind Xbox One, and PS5 sales to begin to track over PS4. So most likely this gen we are shaping up for something like 130m+ PS5, and maybe 45m Xbox Series. That's not quite the monopoly that Sony had exiting gen 6 with PS2's 150m and Xbox's 25m, but it's also a margin that is large enough to be considered a monopoly.

So, we have a history of Sony abusing the consumers when they have a monopoly, and we are tracking towards a Sony monopoly once again. Will they go as high as $800 for PS6 and $90 games next gen? Maybe not that high, but I'd say that $600 PS6 and $80 games will almost certainly happen next gen, and they maybe even go as high a $700 for PS6, especially with the way that computer parts are being affected by inflation. Xbox becoming non-competitive with Sony in terms of hardware likely won't be good for consumers. 

Some of this feels a little alarmist.

The market is pretty different from what it was 15 years ago. Mudslinging competitors between the 3 companies is unusual today. PC is still in the game. Who's to say that a $600+ PS6 wouldn't prompt someone else to try to undercut Sony?

This is also heavily assuming that MS becomes a non-factor, which it seems they still have hardware plans, it just probably isn't going to be their primary driver anymore. (And frankly it hasn't felt like their primary goal in the past few years.)

The issue of $80 games is more complicated. Sony wasn't the first one to make games $70. Take Two was. And a lot of companies have jumped on that train. Even Nintendo has made a $70 game, despite not being directly in competition.

The issue is industry wide. The consumer base isn't particularly growing on consoles. In order to make bigger more competitive games, you have to spend more money, you have to figure out how to get more money out of consumers. A big reason why live service games are so popular right now. A lot of these games from Ubisoft, Sony, Take Two, Microsoft, Activision are costing in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of them are massive successes making a few times that. A lot of them aren't. $80 games would reduce some of the risk. It'll unfortunately probably happen regardless of anything else. Just like $70 has happened, despite MS trying to be a hold out.

The unfortunate reality is that there is no free lunch. Something has to give somewhere at all times. Either the industry has to slow down on their infinite growth or consumers have to start paying more.  

I agree with this take, spending money on the same level as a huge budget film as we have seen with Spiderman 2 cannot be sustained.  A miss which can happen can be devastating and a few misses would be catastrophic.  You only have to look at Suicide Squad to see that a miss which this game is going to be will probably have a big ripple effect for the studio.  I am sure that game cost a lot of money and while reviews seem to be average at best, average reviews do not sell big budget games. 

The cost of producing games is getting really expensive but its gamers expectations that is setting this margin especially in the console space.  I believe gamers on the PC are way more receptive to average if not even so so graphical games where they sell really good but on the console, you basically have to hit all the high points in order to get decent sales and even then might not break even.

Another case in point is Square.  After really snubbing the Xbox for a while, they are not putting in support.  Sales of the last Final Fantasy game did not hit the numbers they wanted and you know with a game like that it cost a pretty penny to make.  This really might be why MS strategy has changed because the numbers for just console isn't pulling in the weight compared to the investment.



Zippy6 said:
Ryuu96 said:

For the sake of the people in this poll I would hope that what this person is saying, who said Xbox games were coming to other platforms back in December, is incorrect.

We do have to ask ourselves why 116 days after the Activision deal is complete we still see none of their titles on Gamepass. Bethesda's were added within a couple of days. We might get some idea next week, perhaps along with the back catalog of activision titles finally coming.

A big part of ABK games not being added to GP had to do with the state of whether or not the deal was actually going to pass. Wasn't much point in doing the work porting if it was all going to be for not. With Bethesda, there was little to no pushback, so that was being worked on to be ready for when the deal closed. MS was definitely caught off guard to the level of backlash they got with purchasing ABK. 

Looking at Ryuu's post of the DF's poll, removing day 1 first party games from GP will be a huge deal breaker for most!



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G2ThaUNiT said:

A big part of ABK games not being added to GP had to do with the state of whether or not the deal was actually going to pass. Wasn't much points in doing much work porting if it was all going to be for not. With Bethesda, there was little to no pushback, so that was being worked on to be ready for when the deal closed. MS was definitely caught off guard to the level of backlash they got with purchasing ABK. 

Looking at Ryuu's post of the DF's poll, removing day 1 first party games from GP will be a huge deal breaker for most!

There is nothing to port, at least for gamepass console. The games are on Xbox already, adding them to gamepass will be a simple process and I don't buy the line that it isn't. It doesn't take 4 months to add games to gamepass. It will be a fairly simple process in the backend to change which titles are included with the subscription.

There is definitely some reason Activision titles aren't on their yet, and I don't believe it has anything to do with them questioning if the deal would go through or not. What that reason is I cannot speculate and it doesn't mean that they aren't going to come to gamepass, but there is some reason we do not know about.



VersusEvil said:

What gets to me is they’ve known these rumours for months in some form but have waiting till they’ve reached boiling point and decided to wait another fucking week 😂

Actually business wise, its best to not respond to rumors.  If you respond to rumors, then you suddenly do not, you give validation to when you respond and when you do not.  Its best to not respond at all.  If the rumor is incorrect and it never happens, people would stop believing in rumors but more important, you do not give any validation to any rumor as the industry is full of them.

Now MS might already had plans for an event to talk about their business plans and even if they did, it would still not be in their best interest to respond to rumors.

Also if you believe if MS got to a point where they had to make an official reply, you do want to prepare for it as best as you possible can as you read the general feedback on the rumors to form your reply.  Knee jerk reply's usually is the worse you can do and usually it does more damage than resolve anything.

Last edited by Machiavellian - on 06 February 2024

Zippy6 said:
Ryuu96 said:

For the sake of the people in this poll I would hope that what this person is saying, who said Xbox games were coming to other platforms back in December, is incorrect.

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blob:https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/af7b6189-f9cd-4eeb-b533-7545ac241757

We do have to ask ourselves why 116 days after the Activision deal is complete we still see none of their titles on Gamepass. Bethesda's were added within a couple of days. We might get some idea next week, perhaps along with the back catalog of activision titles finally coming.

IIRC SneakerSo was banned on ResetEra for being wrong on some "insider" stuff in the past, he is considered a bit unreliable by Era so I'll take what he says with a grain of salt, even if he was right in December on some stuff.

They always told us ABK Game Pass would take a while and in fairness they straight up gave us the reason, Bethesda actually prepared months before closure to be added into Game Pass (and even after closure, it took a few months to add the rest) while ABK did basically zero work on it beforehand because they were doubting the deal would go through, Lol.



Ryuu96 said:

Pretty much.

PlayStation said "their pillars were outdated" compared to Microsoft's.

You're right that the console market has stagnated for 3 generations now, it hit its ceiling long ago, meanwhile AAA development is rapidly increasing. Those internal Sony documents had concerns about how much their games were costing, even an Insomniac employee IIRC was asking if anyone even notices why Spider-Man 2 costs hundreds of millions. Meanwhile PC market and mobile exploded and mobiles are getting more powerful.

Not to be morbid but I think when us console heads die off, the new generations will care less about consoles and will be all about mobile, it surprised me how good kids are today at playing games on touch screen devices and actually better than they are with a controller, as mobiles become even more powerful, they'll be more of that in the future and as for PC, it's already getting everything from Sony and Xbox, Lol.

PlayStation has won the console race and hey it's a lot of players but there's little room for growth there anymore and they will have to expand their horizons eventually, I don't think they particularly care much about this move from Microsoft, they'll get more money from Microsoft but they still have issues to sort out in terms of other areas of growth. 

I think it's fair to exclude Nintendo because their hardware varies so much because it tends to be more unique than the other two and if we're talking Switch, that's a combination of a handheld and a console, it appeals to a different userbase. So I agree with Xbox completely out of the picture, the PlayStation ceiling is roughly 180m...Maybe less if Xbox players migrate to PC instead.

Sony's growth in PC is small, they don't have the sorts of games that mass appeal to PC gamers but Xbox does, I'm talking things like Sea of Thieves, Survival Titles, GAAS, etc. Xbox consistently has multiple titles in the Bronze, Silver and Gold Steam rankings every year. As you said, Sony is a non-factor in Mobile as well. Microsoft had to brute force their way in, Lol.

Streaming I'm less convinced on but we'll see, a lot depends on ISPs.

Sony is winning hardware, no doubt, but Xbox will almost certainly overtake them in both revenue and profit margins, of which, profit margins is something everyone needs to improve, hence why Sony will be investing heavily in GAAS, they want sources of recurring revenue, not just a "one and done" thing, something that sticks around and helps recoup those investments into hardware.

The issue with that is, they're late to that as well, the biggest challenge to GAAS today isn't direct competition, it's time. Roblox can be completely different to GAAS #2 but nobody plays GAAS #2 because they're too busy playing Roblox, they don't have time to play anything else. This problem will increase when Microsoft drops a bunch of their own GAAS on PS before Sony does.

Now I'm not saying Sony is doomed or anything, nothing of the sort, I'm simply saying, Sony is probably indifferent to this move because they have things of their own that they need to focus on irrespective of whatever Xbox does. Xbox's moves won't change all the challenges that Sony has to face in the future.

Exactly.

Sony won the console race just like T-rex won the evolution race and then... Adapt or die.

Just look a this leak.

Spiderman 2

Expected budget 315m (I assume it includes marketing)
expected copy sold 10.5m (I think it is at 7m or so as of now)
Expected profits $75m 

Some of that $ 75m must be reinvested to support the subsidized hardware and then divided by the number of years the game was in dev to get an average/year.

Meanwhile, Sony shareholders can expect better ROI from their smaller movie division. 

With such a number, you see why it's simply impossible to just transit from gen to gen without supporting the last gen for a few years even at the expense of being criticized for holding back the next gen by consumers. Game sales are just cannibalized by the low number of installed next-gen early on shareholders must wait mid to end-gen before seeing a good ROI just to then be tasked to invest to architect the next next-gen.

This model made sense in the past when the dev cost was way lower and dev time way shorter but now it's just silly and MS is just exposing this fact IMO. And with that in mind, it's kinda funny. MS in the console wasn't treated fairly, they are the mega-corporation that tried to "take down" the established and loved player. So what do they do, shift the rules of the game, and act as the meteor that ended the very context in which T-Rex can be considered to have won the evolution game. IMO, MS is set to achieve numbers impossible to achieve in a console-focused exclusive business model and will make any shareholder in such a model question its validity.

This, for me, is the reason Jim Ryan left, not because he failed to stop the ABK transaction. but because this transaction being allowed just made the, anchor the status quo, strategy he was using predictably unsuccessful and even silly making PlayStation unprepared for the next context in which success will be measured. He knew instantly that whatever his strategy was set to benefit the shareholders it would never be enough to satisfy them when they'll see what MS would achieve.

Last edited by EpicRandy - on 06 February 2024

Zippy6 said:
G2ThaUNiT said:

A big part of ABK games not being added to GP had to do with the state of whether or not the deal was actually going to pass. Wasn't much points in doing much work porting if it was all going to be for not. With Bethesda, there was little to no pushback, so that was being worked on to be ready for when the deal closed. MS was definitely caught off guard to the level of backlash they got with purchasing ABK. 

Looking at Ryuu's post of the DF's poll, removing day 1 first party games from GP will be a huge deal breaker for most!

There is nothing to port, at least for gamepass console. The games are on Xbox already, adding them to gamepass will be a simple process and I don't buy the line that it isn't. It doesn't take 4 months to add games to gamepass. It will be a fairly simple process in the backend to change which titles are included with the subscription.

There is definitely some reason Activision titles aren't on their yet, and I don't believe it has anything to do with them questioning if the deal would go through or not. What that reason is I cannot speculate and it doesn't mean that they aren't going to come to gamepass, but there is some reason we do not know about.

Only thing I know is that no development can be done while the deal did not close.  Since I have been a part of a few mergers, I know that we could not integrate the other company products into our system until after the deal closed even though we knew exactly what was going to be done first.  We could not start anything until the deal was closed.  As to the technical side and license side, who knows what has to clear or what has to be done in order for it to happen.  Hell you do not even know if MS has the development/ business resources to do it in the time frame you believe it should happen.  We get a sense that MS is doing this because basically they have made some vague statements on that front but there could be multiple issues at hand but one I do know, nothing happened until after the sale was closed.