October? Christ all fucking mighty let it end already.

Idas Breakdown

Although the original article has been updated since then, MS knew since day one after the pause (July 12th) that this was a #TeamOctober play:

Idas Said:

This is not unlike what we speculated when it has come to light that a new negotiation with the CMA would include a divesture of some sort. Back then I speculated it might have been limited to PC version right and limited to the current franchise but the inclusion of the console version and other Ips does not change much in the end. I also speculated that such an entity would have no revenue and that MS would have to finance its operation, partnering with Ubisoft is a smarter way still as MS will not have to finance them and so provide more credibility to the independence of their decision.

You have to remember those are simply streaming rights, they don't give anyone the ability to give anyone users a license to the game. Ubisoft, nor any other provider will have the ability to include the titles in a subscription library, so they all be subject to BYOG model and would still have to be purchased through the Windows store, Xbox Store, Steam, or acquired through a GamePass subscription. So in the end what MS "sells" to Ubisoft is the right to create free Marketing for ABK/Xbox games LOL.

You also have to take into consideration that we don't even know if a market for cloud streaming right really can exist on its own. Geforce now is owned by a Trillion $ company and used the BYOG model since the start, they have the capacity, position, and incentive to acquire such a rights, yet barely do (to my knowledge) resorting to taking titles down whenever challenged about right infringement.

Ubisoft: +6.99%
Activision: +1.17% (Pre-Market)
Microsoft: +1.01% (Pre-Market)

There's an irony in Brexit helping a French company which was struggling financially, Lmao.

There's also a bit of a smart M&A play here, like I said, Microsoft just made it a lot harder for any big tech company with a Cloud infrastructure to acquire Ubisoft and Yves cemented his ownership of Ubisoft for a 15 year period. If CoD is too big for a big tech company with a Cloud infrastructure to own then by that same logic, Sony/Amazon/Google/Tencent can't acquire Ubisoft for 15 years as they now own the licenses to all ABK titles.

Microsoft also further increases their relationship with Ubisoft, as Microsoft is doing Ubisoft a huge solid here.

Honestly I don't understand most of the stuff going on but every bit of info that comes from the CMA seems to be making things worse for consumers for who they exist to protect.

I've no faith in the deal going through anymore that MS should just eat the few billion loss and move on with other investments in a few months the CMA will likely still block it and the EU will probably flip to blocking it due to been annoyed with changes.

Edit:I guess the post above shows the market like the proposals so it's probably a good thing lol

This deal is going through, Idas called it weeks ago that this exact scenario would happen, others with knowledge in the area aren't surprised either, according to the Financial Times, Microsoft expected it as well. The market is also happy with the proposals. The CMA needs their "win" and need to look tough, they got it. This revised structural agreement has been in talks between the CMA/Microsoft for months now, the CMA almost certainly assured Microsoft that they would be happy with this structural remedy but Microsoft didn't have it complete until now.

There's really no way the CMA can block it now, it's essentially a divestment of CoD (not just CoD, all of ABK IP) rights for 15 years and even after those 15 years, all previous licenses to ABK titles released within and before those 15 years still remain with Ubisoft. If the CMA wanted to block it, they'd just block it now, or they would make the Phase 1 end after Microsoft's final extension date, instead it ends exactly on the same date, that isn't a coincidence, the CMA even told CAT that they can do a fast tracked Phase 1.

CAT seem to believe that this is a done deal as well. If CMA come back with nothing after assuring them it would be almost certainly enough and there's no reason to go to court anymore then CAT will be livid at the CMA, Lol. The issue is that the CMA can't just approve the deal, they have to follow procedure and Microsoft's change to the deal is so drastic that it basically constitutes as a new deal that requires a fresh investigation, asking market participants their opinions and assessing the impact to the market, it is not the same deal that Microsoft originally proposed anymore.

There's a chance the EC may re-open the investigation because the deal has changed but there's zero chance the EC will block it because they are annoyed by the changes, Lol. There's no changes to the commitments that Microsoft provided to the EU. The EU only asked for EU commitments and Microsoft is still honouring those EU commitments, Ubisoft is handling WW (outside of EU). The only thing that may cause EU to re-open it is if they want more now, so they may say "okay, we want 15 years now as well" or something along those lines.

But it may actually help that it's an EU company getting this contract...

This is basically what Microsoft and others with knowledge of the situation expected. I know it's frustrating but it's procedure and going as expected.

That's true, this is probably 1 reason why Ubisoft accepted to deal with MS. I don't see this transaction as anything really worthwhile for Ubisoft else wise. Yes, they acquire a bunch of streaming rights, which to my knowledge have been barely subject to deals up until this point, maybe during those next 15 years they will mean something more but right now.... But that's even the funniest part, MS will sell every IP to Ubisoft at market price, which means if ever they are worth anything meaningful MS gonna get paid to an appropriate amount. So really this is 100% ringfencing.

Also MS and Ubisoft benefit from stronger relationships.

As for Xcloud, it sure complicates things for MS but not that much, Like mentioned MS may deal with Ubisoft for inclusion onto Xcloud to which Ubisoft as 0 incentive to restraint, or MS may simply propose streaming for the affected title through Ubisoft service and pay them based on usage.

In my mind, there are 0 reasons why with the Xbox store you're limited to streaming through Xcloud, especially so since it failed to meet every metric MS wanted and in light of this deal. MS can very well use their newfound partners with this acquisition to offer all those services through GPU. Imagine that when you use this button :

You're then presented with a selection of "Do you want to stream through Xcloud, Geforce Now, Boosteroid, Ubisoft +..." This would enable players to always get the best performance based on their current whereabouts.

Someone uploaded 40 minutes of raw Starfield gameplay taken at the very beginning of the game but it got taken down by the Zenimax ninjas. Those who watched it said that the FPS looked really solid, a big graphical leap and great animations. The leak wasn't a reviewer but someone who got the collectors edition early.