To be honest, I also believe the CMA just want this case to go away so the chances they accept MS deal especially if they are the only agency out on that island all by themselves just isn't looking good.  One thing they do know is MS is not going quietly and with other wins MS has achieved they could lobby for more pressure for the CMA to truly worked with them to get this deal done instead of playing whatever game they are playing. 

You know there is a strong chance that ABK could just walk away with cash and sell to another big player who has enough capital like Apple or Google.  Those 2 companies would have absolutly no issue getting the deal done and ABK still gets paid like king.  I am saying if I was ABK, I walk away with my 3 billion dollar pay day and behind the scenes look to get another big player to purchase the company.

The other option is for ABK to raise the price for purchase as well as the price for termination.  How far can ABK push MS and how thirsty is MS to get ABK.

It's pretty cool how many players are hopping on old 360 CoD games lol

There is next to 0 chance that Activision-Blizzard walks away, Lol.

For starters, if they did, they would lose way more in valuation than they would gain from $3bn cash, shareholders would have the board and Bobby's head on a pike within a week. The only scenario this makes sense is if they had an immediate player lined up to acquire Activision-Blizzard and there's multiple problems with that.

There's only a few companies who have the cash values as Microsoft and are even interested in the first place, the companies with the capability would be Google, Amazon, Meta, Tencent, Saudi Arabia, Apple but capability doesn't mean they're interested.

Tencent would be an immediate block, Meta already refused ABK, Google already dipped out the market and all evidence suggests they aren't a company willing to make big splash gambles like this. That leaves us with Amazon, Saudi Arabia and Apple. Microsoft has twice the amount of cash than Amazon and Apple do so we can probably rule them two out as well.

These companies would absolutely have issue getting the acquisition done as well, the Cloud SLC would apply to Amazon as well if COD is deemed an essential input for Cloud Gaming which it is, even if they're ultimately approved (which I think they would be) it would be a long process still, it'd be 6 months at minimum instead of the maybe 1 month that shareholders will have to wait for Microsoft to close the deal.

In addition, ABK was acquired during the pandemic and when interest rates were shit, Microsoft is by all accounts overpaying for Activision-Blizzard and few companies will be willing to match, let alone exceed Microsoft's current offer of $95 a share...Especially when they could just wait for Activision-Blizzard to collapse back down to $75 or lower after the acquisition falls through.

If Bobby walked away with $3bn, Activision-Blizzard valuation would collapse unless literally the same day, another offer is made and for all the reasons above, that is unlikely. Bobby would have to throw away all his business sense to walk away now, I know Bobby is a twat but he didn't turn ABK from nothing into the biggest publisher in the world by not being a smart businessman.

ABK may ask for a price increase but they really don't hold all the cards here, they can't get too greedy, because Microsoft will just point to the fact that their valuation will tank from 95 dollar a share to ~75 dollar a share now if they walk away and the shareholders will be absolutely fuming, all because Bobby couldn't wait a month. The breakup fee increasing would be fine because this deal is happening at this point.

To sum up, it ain't happening, Lol.

There is no chance of that. Because... Of the shareholders. They voted (more than 98%) for the deal and the board would get sued for doing that and it will be a suicide. 

Even if they have another offer (let's say from Apple; and this is IF they would have an offer); they would get sued to hell, the reason is that shareholders are expecting to cash up very soon and this would lead to even more delay, another investigation, uncertainties, etc... They simply cannot walk away with those 3B (gives nothing to the shareholders, bring back the stock around 60$ probably) even if they would want to negotiate with another player for a better price at this point.

The deal is happening, Activision is not walking away from it; I can tell you that. The ramifications of doing something like that would be so bad for them.

While not without incentive, there would need to be a vote out of the deal with shareholders that, if the vote to allow the merger is any indication, would take up to 3 months to set. The simple announcement of such a meeting would cripple the stock value IMO, way more than the gain of $3b which shareholders would not enjoy directly anyway.

The deal is also extremely likely to include no Shop, no Solicitation clause preventing ABK to enter such a talk with other companies which means they will actually need to complete the vote before negotiating with another entity, but that's just me speculating.

The $95/share is already way above the value it's not clear that any other entity would want to go above that.

I think but correct me if I'm wrong, it is ABK that went to Microsoft to be bought, and it's quite possible they've asked other entities in the meantime. So I am not sure why another entity would even be interested that was not before.

IMO, That's why MS and ABK, while negotiating for an extension, are not really in a rush to do so and have not prepared this too much in advance.

Activision went to other companies, yeah, then they went to Microsoft, some refused and this was near enough to the pandemic when gaming was exploding so there's no indication that anyone in the current climate would be willing to make that investment.

I honestly think the only one would be Saudi Arabia, Lol. Ain't no chance that Microsoft lets Amazon or Google outbid them if they even could and they couldn't without heavy borrowing or stock options, Microsoft has more than twice the cash reserves of Amazon and Google.

Apple probably doesn't give a shit, they have no interest in console gaming, they have no interest in PC gaming, they're too busy heavily investing into TV content and they don't need a mobile developer when they own the entire dang store, Lol.

Remember when gamers used to think for some reason that American companies can't acquire Japanese ones.

Someone should tell Microsoft and Sega that.

Sega: What? Microsoft can't acquire us! It's the law!

Satya: Phil you dumb idiot, Americans can't acquire Japanese companies!