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Machiavellian said:
You know there is a strong chance that ABK could just walk away with cash and sell to another big player who has enough capital like Apple or Google. Those 2 companies would have absolutly no issue getting the deal done and ABK still gets paid like king. I am saying if I was ABK, I walk away with my 3 billion dollar pay day and behind the scenes look to get another big player to purchase the company. The other option is for ABK to raise the price for purchase as well as the price for termination. How far can ABK push MS and how thirsty is MS to get ABK. |
There is next to 0 chance that Activision-Blizzard walks away, Lol.
For starters, if they did, they would lose way more in valuation than they would gain from $3bn cash, shareholders would have the board and Bobby's head on a pike within a week. The only scenario this makes sense is if they had an immediate player lined up to acquire Activision-Blizzard and there's multiple problems with that.
There's only a few companies who have the cash values as Microsoft and are even interested in the first place, the companies with the capability would be Google, Amazon, Meta, Tencent, Saudi Arabia, Apple but capability doesn't mean they're interested.
Tencent would be an immediate block, Meta already refused ABK, Google already dipped out the market and all evidence suggests they aren't a company willing to make big splash gambles like this. That leaves us with Amazon, Saudi Arabia and Apple. Microsoft has twice the amount of cash than Amazon and Apple do so we can probably rule them two out as well.
These companies would absolutely have issue getting the acquisition done as well, the Cloud SLC would apply to Amazon as well if COD is deemed an essential input for Cloud Gaming which it is, even if they're ultimately approved (which I think they would be) it would be a long process still, it'd be 6 months at minimum instead of the maybe 1 month that shareholders will have to wait for Microsoft to close the deal.
In addition, ABK was acquired during the pandemic and when interest rates were shit, Microsoft is by all accounts overpaying for Activision-Blizzard and few companies will be willing to match, let alone exceed Microsoft's current offer of $95 a share...Especially when they could just wait for Activision-Blizzard to collapse back down to $75 or lower after the acquisition falls through.
If Bobby walked away with $3bn, Activision-Blizzard valuation would collapse unless literally the same day, another offer is made and for all the reasons above, that is unlikely. Bobby would have to throw away all his business sense to walk away now, I know Bobby is a twat but he didn't turn ABK from nothing into the biggest publisher in the world by not being a smart businessman.
ABK may ask for a price increase but they really don't hold all the cards here, they can't get too greedy, because Microsoft will just point to the fact that their valuation will tank from 95 dollar a share to ~75 dollar a share now if they walk away and the shareholders will be absolutely fuming, all because Bobby couldn't wait a month. The breakup fee increasing would be fine because this deal is happening at this point.
To sum up, it ain't happening, Lol.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 18 July 2023
