I'm kind of shocked they would even be considering console exclusivity for Minecraft moving forward, CoD of course is too big and they are still mandated to keep it multiplat until like 2033 because that was part of their acquisition deal, but Minecraft is even bigger than CoD, they averaged 40m copies a year the last 3 years, a  game selling 40m copies a year in it's 12th, 13th, and 14th years on the market is unheard of outside of Minecraft.

I would say everything smaller than CoD and Minecraft makes sense for console exclusivity. Elder Scrolls probably stands to lose the most copy sales over it of the series smaller than those two, but it would also move alot of Project Helix hardware. Asha clearly wants to revive Xbox as a platform, and that just isn't going to happen without significant exclusives.