I don't know, extrapolating from a random AMD slide that is incredibly vague with this sort of information sounds risky.

Last gen there were marketing firms and leakers doing exactly the same thing, and people were sure that VGC had overtracked the XBOne. It turned out to have been undertracked all along when MS divulged sales data at last.

"KeplerL2

Honestly I don't really care about "winning" this argument and don't want to add any fuel to this console war BS, but I did want to double check my estimates to make sure I'm not crazy and found some internal AMD production (not sales) volume data and it's even worse than I thought for Xbox."

The biggest argument that speaks for the Series' being under 30m units shipped (not even sold) is that there's no way XS have sold more units outside than in the US.

This is simply not possible, since the US is its biggest market.

As of June 2024, Series estimates stood at 14.7m units sold in the US, and at 7.8m units sold in Europe. That's 22.5m units as of June 2024.

There's just no way the Series sold an additional 11m units over the last 12 months since June 2024. Where? Outside the US, where sales basically were zero, not even 1m units were sold.

I truly think VGC estimates for the Series are widely overtracked.

Before Microsoft released the Xbox One numbers of 58 million, vgchartz had it at 50 million. Xbox Series reaching 40 million is a significant drop from 18 million consoles. I believe vgchartz has the number very close to the real one. The drop in the US gives us a good perspective on the drop in the rest of the world.

Historically the US has been around 50% (+/- 2%) of worldwide Xbox sales. Our US estimates should be quite accurate given Circana/NPD data and we have sales at ~17 million in the US through June 2025. At 50% that would put worldwide sales at ~34 million, while we have it a little lower at 33.27 million.

As jvmkdg noted VGChartz had undertracked the Xbox One by a decent amount when it was revealed it actually sold 58 million lifetime. I forget the exact figure, but we had the Xbox One between 50 million and 52 million lifetime.

Not saying we've undertracked or overtracked the Xbox Series X|S. If we get new data that shows we are too low or too high we will adjust to make our estimates as accurate as possible. It would be much easier if Microsoft released actual shipment data like Nintendo and Sony do.

If KeplerL2 was right (and even Welfare admitted to it) that Xbox hardware revenue data consists of revenue from expansion cards, headsets and controllers, too, then indeed calculated sell-in/sell-through numbers of Series hardware must be inflated.

Additionally, and this is only a repeat of above, I think no numbers support the concept that Series sold 8m units globally between July 2024 and July 2025 - certainly not sold-through.

Then we also have cumulative data from AMD and Sony, which especially from AMD say that Steam Deck chipsets are also represented in their custom designed unit.

And then there's the fact that it's simply not possible that the Series sold almost 50% outside of the US looking even at estimates. The European and Japanese market estimates went nosediving not long after launch. We almost have a 10:1 ratio even globally as of June 2025.

And as my latest calculations of the estimates, they showed a -29.5% decline year-on-year, whereas Xbox' official revenue decline was at -22%. This gap to me can't be explained by the price hikes since May 2025.

In fact, it at least supports the idea that VGC estimates are inflated by revenue factors outside of Series hardware, since their official hardware decline doesn't even know about 7% additional revenue found in the estimates.

Again, this is no criticsm whatsoever towards you and your team and efforts, since Microsoft not providing decent numbers is the biggest flaw for years. It's despicable.

I truly believe that as of today, there are more things indicating/supporting the hypothesis that Series haven't even shipped 30m units than confirming it sold-through 33m units.

But I understand the decision to let estimates untouched as long as we don't have any real and undeniable source of truth in that regard.

Your June 2024 figure is missing a lot of data - the rest of the Americas, Japan, mainland Asia, Oceania, and Africa. We have Xbox Series at an estimated 29.04 million as of June 2024, which means we have 4.23 million sold from July 2024 to June 2025. That is far off from the 8 million you've been saying. 

Another place that does estimates - IDG - has PS5 and Xbox Series at "~107 million gen 9 consoles outstanding estimated worldwide, as of December 2024." Even if you look at shipment PS5 was at 75 million shipped in December 2024, which would leave 32 million for Xbox Series as of December 2024. Then you add on what it has shipped/sold in the first six months of 2025.

Source - Page 9: https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/4caa8ce3-9cd2-45d5-b267-593e2391801f

To the first paragraph: That's actually the gap that I was purposely pointing to. Where, outside of the US, could the Series have sold-through (!) 4.23m units between July 2024 and July 2025? Outside the US! The Series is literally dead in Europe and Japan, both which are responsible for at least 85% of sales outside the US.

To the second paragraph:

AMD themselves attribute Steam Deck custom designed chips to that 107m figure. So you have to account Steam Deck shipments to that 107m figure, too. It's written in their official 10k paper.

4.23 million is what we have sold worldwide, including the US, from July 2024 to June 2025.

The 107 million figure are estimates from IDG and have nothing to do with AMD. They specifically stated generation 9 consoles aka PS5 and Xbox Series.

https://ir.amd.com/financial-information/sec-filings/content/0000002488-25-000012/amd-20241228.htm