Xbox Series sells over 33.5M by 30.09.2025. LT expectations ?

[trunkswd]

Panicradio said:

The biggest argument that speaks for the Series' being under 30m units shipped (not even sold) is that there's no way XS have sold more units outside than in the US.

This is simply not possible, since the US is its biggest market.

As of June 2024, Series estimates stood at 14.7m units sold in the US, and at 7.8m units sold in Europe. That's 25.5m units as of June 2024.

There's just no way the Series sold an additional 8m units over the last 12 months since June 2024. Where? Outside the US, where sales basically were zero, not even 1m units were sold.

I truly think VGC estimates for the Series are widely overtracked.

Your June 2024 figure is missing a lot of data - the rest of the Americas, Japan, mainland Asia, Oceania, and Africa. We have Xbox Series at an estimated 29.04 million as of June 2024, which means we have 4.23 million sold from July 2024 to June 2025. That is far off from the 8 million you've been saying. 

Another place that does estimates - IDG - has PS5 and Xbox Series at "~107 million gen 9 consoles outstanding estimated worldwide, as of December 2024." Even if you look at shipment PS5 was at 75 million shipped in December 2024, which would leave 32 million for Xbox Series as of December 2024. Then you add on what it has shipped/sold in the first six months of 2025.

Source - Page 9: https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/4caa8ce3-9cd2-45d5-b267-593e2391801f