Just FYI, if we assume Wii sells 50k in japan and PS3+360 combined for 17.5k to complete the WW #s, even at that pace the Wii will need 49.6 weeks to hit 50% market share. The closer your weekly share is to your LTD share the slower you approach it.

Perhaps a better way to explain it is to solve for W using the current PS3/360 paces and choose an I that gives us the last week in December, which is (37 for the week ending Jan 3rd which is part of December numbers this year.) : Or in other words, in order for the Wii to hit 50% market share this year it needs to be selling at around 477k per week.

The big change from last year isn't that Wii sales are down (they are up actually), but that PS3 and 360 combined sales are up quite a bit. Just to give an example if I take numbers from the middle of last year the Wii only needs to average about 341k.

Keep in mind btw that the holidays act as sort of a great equilizer so unless Nintendo has some impressive shipments for the holidays this year it will likely need to hit the mark before the holidays if they are going to do it this year at all.

The Wii will have 3-4 weeks over 1 million, and couple more 700k + weeks WW during the holidays. With the week before Cmas approaching 2 million(and another week around 1.4 million). The Wii will look in 08 alittle like the DS did in 07(but not quite as much).

You're forgetting that my numbers also assumed the PS3 and 360 would have no change during the holidays. Even with the kinds of numbers you're predicting, the Wii sells about 11M for the holiday quarter. That leaves the Wii needing to sell ~445k* taking into account that the PS3 and 360 sell at an identical rate to their last holiday quarter.

But even if we assume the PS3 and 360 get ZERO holiday boost and defy convention by staying on their current pace and that the Wii does sell 11M in the holiday quarter, the Wii still needs to average 275k* per week. Just to hit 50% by the very last week of the year.

Note: * - These numbers are the average sales required from present until October. In both cases it is assumed that 11M is sold between the beginning of Oct and the end of Dec.

I want to point out that 11M in the holiday quarter is a generous estimate BTW. Last year the Wii did 7M and I think they will be doing very well to hit 9M this year. 11M would represent a 57% increase YoY for the quarter.

You act as if the PS3 and 360 will continue to stop selling as the Wii continues to sell at heightened paces.

What was this about? O yeah Chuck Norris in Brawl. :). Happy face.

i agree it's not gonna happen this year
I'm thinking August 2010

now it's 45%!

Whoa... I thought we were gonna start a new thread to piss off rock 08.

Now it's at 44.9 with others in... probably should wait until all 3 sets of numbers are in for a week.... only have two sets now.

It will go back to 45.0% or above when Japan numbers come in.