Just FYI, if we assume Wii sells 50k in japan and PS3+360 combined for 17.5k to complete the WW #s, even at that pace the Wii will need 49.6 weeks to hit 50% market share. The closer your weekly share is to your LTD share the slower you approach it.
Perhaps a better way to explain it is to solve for W using the current PS3/360 paces and choose an I that gives us the last week in December, which is (37 for the week ending Jan 3rd which is part of December numbers this year.) : Or in other words, in order for the Wii to hit 50% market share this year it needs to be selling at around 477k per week.
The big change from last year isn't that Wii sales are down (they are up actually), but that PS3 and 360 combined sales are up quite a bit. Just to give an example if I take numbers from the middle of last year the Wii only needs to average about 341k.
Keep in mind btw that the holidays act as sort of a great equilizer so unless Nintendo has some impressive shipments for the holidays this year it will likely need to hit the mark before the holidays if they are going to do it this year at all.
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