There’s two scenarios regarding the US pulling support and it comes down to who wins the November election

1) Harris wins and maintains support. 
2) Trump wins, immediately cuts support to force Zelensky to sue for peace (ie surrender). Technically you’re prediction is still wrong here as Trump won’t phase out support, rather just cut it off abruptly.

I don’t think that’s quite accurately. My understanding is the usage is restricted in the Switzerland can veto the purchaser transferring/selling the equipment on ie sending it to Ukraine.

Switzerland always vetoes the transfer to an active warzone. If Germany was attacked it couldn’t stop Germany using the previously acquired equipment for its defence but presumably wouldn’t sell it more at that time. 

Personally, I would not take that risk, I don't see much difference in equipment already being sold to another country (lets say Germany), meaning that said country now owns the equipment as they purchased it, so they should be allowed to decide on how it's used but Switzerland still blocks them from doing so.

If I'm a country that has spent billions on Swiss equipment but they're still telling me that I don't own it and don't get to decide how it's used then I would question the security implications if my own country was at war, what the Swiss reaction would be to me using their weapons. I struggle to see how it would be okay in Switzerland's mind for a country to use Swiss equipment against another country directly but not for a country who owns Swiss equipment to send it to another country to use it on them, Swiss hands are clean even more-so in the latter scenario.

Lets make it a more cleaner comparison though, what if Poland was attacked, would Switzerland block Germany from being able to send military equipment to Poland or take it there themselves? What if a non-NATO ally was attacked? We would not be able to back them up with any type of Swiss equipment and it's unlikely Germany is ever attacked directly, Lol. So they have military equipment sitting rotting.

Personally, I feel like Switzerland wants to have their cake and eat it too, in the sense that they want to hide behind being a "neutral" country but they also want to sell weapons because it brings them $$$. I don't think anyone should trust them anymore with buying military equipment from them, there is too much uncertainty around its usage now and I also think Switzerland just wants to maintain friendly relations with Russia for the $$$ not because they're afraid of them in any way.

My prediction:

Republicans will block any further support to Ukraine after the election. This really forces Europe to finally get their shit together and force their military companies to finally ramp up the production of military equipment. As a result, the EU (+UK and Norway) will increasingly replace the US as main equipment and ammunition suppliers.

Meanwhile, Russia increasingly runs out of both men and material, and their rejoicing about the withdrawal of the US is short-lived, as they are increasingly lacking the means for offensive actions and instead resort more and more to terror bombing. By late 2025 Russia has lost over 1M men on the battlefield as well as most of it's armored fighting vehicles, be it Tanks, IFVs, APCs or MRAPs.

By 2026 Ukraine is on the offensive - albeit very slowly due to extensive minefields laid out by the Russians severely slowing down operations. Still, by early 2027 Bakhmut and it's surroundings finally gets reconquered, with Ukraine slowly advancing in direction of Avdiivka and Tokmak result, together with several years of stagflation, in serious unrest within Russia. The Siloviki try to brutally repress them but the times are changing and their grip on the population is waning, and several regions start to revolt.

This puts Russia between a rock and a hard place, as they would need to recall troops from Ukraine, where they're already short-staffed, to places of revolt within Russia. Predictably, this results in the collapse of the front in Ukraine when after a general offensive the Russian troops get routed in a way worse way than what happened late Summer 2022. By the time Russia stabilizes again it's too late: Ukraine has reconquered most of it's territory and only some regions still stand in Russian hands, forcing them to acknowledge that they lost the war and have to return the borders to pre-2014 situation.

Don't think this happens if Trump loses.

Republicans won't take House/Senate by high enough margins, all Democrats still support Ukraine aid in both House and Senate, it'll only take a few dissenters of the Republicans to vote in favour of Ukraine aid to continue passing it, while the last vote shows them heading in the wrong direction, it was still around 50% of Republicans still in favour of Ukraine aid in US House, that's more than enough providing Democrats will continue to vote in unity which I'm pretty certain they will.

What could happen is if Democrats lose either House or Senate, the Speaker of House or Senate Leader simply refuses to put Ukraine aid to the floor for voting, like Mike Johnson did before, but he largely only did that because Trump was telling him to. It depends if a MAGA nutjob becomes the next House Speaker/Senate Leader, I would need an American to tell me the scenarios of this event though, who is the likely replacement for Mitch McConnell. I think Mike Johnson is in Ukraine's camp for now, but he may not last as House Speaker after the election.

And Tbh, Hakeem even as minority leader in House has been outplaying Johnson multiple times already.

Who is likely to win House and Senate in 2024?

The repubs already have 51-52 senate seats on lock (2018 was a very blue election, so lots of seats will be flipping). It would take a miracle for dems to take both chambers, especially coming off an unpopular incumbent. Granted, the republican party is a uniquely unpopular one as of recent. I struggle to see Trump not winning tho. He's polling signficiantly better than even 2016.

Lol, come join the russian army!  It will be a blast!

Catchy russian music video

Running the rule over transferring your produced military equipment is standard practice across the world. Its not a thing inly Switzerland does. Its also why European countries needed US agreement to send certain arms to Ukraine - because many of them contain US-produced components so the US has a say in it as well.

The reason they can do that is because it will be part of the sale agreement, and there is good reason for it. Military equipment can often be very high-tech and countries don’t want to run the risk of it getting sold onto an enemy state or the like. So they get put in the re-sale clause so they are still consulted if they initial buyer wants to sell-on the equipment.

I know it's standard practice but the difference is, those countries tend to give permission, Switzerland doesn't, Lol.

That's the reason why Switzerland can't be relied upon for a countries defence, that's why countries are apparently moving away from Switzerland and they have nobody else to blame but themselves, it's a fact right now that any ally of a NATO country outside of NATO cannot be sent Swiss made equipment because Switzerland would block it. It's even debatable, I would say, if Germany could send Poland, Swiss made equipment if they were under attack with the way Switzerland is acting.

So what it tells me is the only scenario in which Swiss made equipment is likely to be able to be used is if the country itself holding the Swiss made equipment was under attack, so Germany would need to be under direct attack in this scenario, with the way Switzerland acts, I have my doubts in even this, like I said I think Switzerland wants all the benefits of being neutral but still with the added $ bonuses of selling military equipment.

And lets say Switzerland does grace Germany with their permission to defend themselves using Swiss made equipment, what happens if Germany runs out of Swiss made ammunition? Switzerland tells them to go fuck themselves and find ammunition from elsewhere? Germany therefore has to source ammunition production elsewhere if they run out, or if the attacker destroys German equipment.

I hate America not giving UK permission for Storm Shadow to be used in Russia itself but Switzerland is a whole other piss-take, Lol. America didn't block even F16s from being sent and they're probably way more classified than anything Switzerland has. America could have blocked us from sending Storm Shadow at all because it uses American components, same with Challengers, Leopards, etc.

Yes, America has a say, but America tends to say yes as do other countries when it comes to sending equipment (whole different issue when it's where that equipment is used), Switzerland is the only one refusing to allow anything at all. If Switzerland was America in this scenario, Ukraine would be charging headfirst into Russian lines with only an AK-47 on their back, Lol.

If Switzerland wants to remain neutral then fine but it'd be stupid for any country to buy from them anymore.