Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Bofferbrauer2]

firebush03 said:

My prediction for Russia-Ukraine conflict: USA phases out support to Ukraine through 2025 and (maybe) 2026 regardless of who wins in November. Putin gets his territory, meanwhile Zelenski goes into hiding as a nationalist regime performs a military coup. Joe Biden gets his chocolate chocolate chip ice cream, and we are all reminded of the theatrical nature of US politics. We have absolutely no control and can only pray that those in power may have a change of heart.

My prediction:

Republicans will block any further support to Ukraine after the election. This really forces Europe to finally get their shit together and force their military companies to finally ramp up the production of military equipment. As a result, the EU (+UK and Norway) will increasingly replace the US as main equipment and ammunition suppliers.

Meanwhile, Russia increasingly runs out of both men and material, and their rejoicing about the withdrawal of the US is short-lived, as they are increasingly lacking the means for offensive actions and instead resort more and more to terror bombing. By late 2025 Russia has lost over 1M men on the battlefield as well as most of it's armored fighting vehicles, be it Tanks, IFVs, APCs or MRAPs.

By 2026 Ukraine is on the offensive - albeit very slowly due to extensive minefields laid out by the Russians severely slowing down operations. Still, by early 2027 Bakhmut and it's surroundings finally gets reconquered, with Ukraine slowly advancing in direction of Avdiivka and Tokmak result, together with several years of stagflation, in serious unrest within Russia. The Siloviki try to brutally repress them but the times are changing and their grip on the population is waning, and several regions start to revolt.

This puts Russia between a rock and a hard place, as they would need to recall troops from Ukraine, where they're already short-staffed, to places of revolt within Russia. Predictably, this results in the collapse of the front in Ukraine when after a general offensive the Russian troops get routed in a way worse way than what happened late Summer 2022. By the time Russia stabilizes again it's too late: Ukraine has reconquered most of it's territory and only some regions still stand in Russian hands, forcing them to acknowledge that they lost the war and have to return the borders to pre-2014 situation.