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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

RolStoppable said:

The war now lasts since almost two and a half years, yet somehow the West still needs more time. I don't buy this excuse, nor do I believe that any European country is ready to go to war with Russia in case that Ukraine falls.

Ukraine made huge gains in fall 2022 with the little they had got until then, so if the West had continued to give equipment step by step instead of hesitating on things like tanks for several months, Russia could have been pushed even farther back. But what happened instead is that the West got scared that Russia could lose the war.

The West's strategy is about hoping that Putin will eventually give in, seeing how much this war has cost his country. But the problem with this approach is that Putin won't give up exactly because he has already invested so much. The sunk cost is so high that anything but victory is unacceptable for Russia.

In Europe, governments know that:

-Ukraine is a European country: it is one of ours and they are attacking it. And if the Russians win they will continue advancing.

-The USSR and the KGB never left; They just changed their name.

-In Russia neither the government nor the people rule; the KGB commands (now it is called FSB, but it is the KGB).

-Those in charge of the KGB believe that Russia is an empire, they believe that Russia cannot lose, they believe that Russia is in danger (it is not the real Russia that is in danger, but the imperial Russia that exists in their minds), etc. They are crazy and dangerous people. There is no possible agreement with these madmen. They are going to fight as long as they have resources left. And that means at least one or two more years of war.

-Russia swims in defensive resources. The Russian military has known for 50 years that Russia is weak and that they must allocate resources to defense. And they've fought in the shadows to make sure that's the focus almost all the time.

-Logistics is maximum in areas near the sea because almost all world trade is done through the sea. It is not possible to drive Russia out of southern Ukraine because its troops are supplied. Furthermore, Ukraine did not and does not have trained people. And we did not have and do not have the weapons or ammunition to give it to them.

-The function of weapons is not to have to be used. For example, in Europe we have more than 100 patriots that we could deliver to Ukraine (another question is whether Ukraine has people capable of handling them). But its function is to let our enemies know that attacking us is going to be very costly. And therefore do not attack us. Actually, we cannot give Ukraine that. We have lots of weapons, but we can't deliver them.

-Training a soldier can be done in months. But training a specialist takes years. And it is the specialists who make a real combat force exist. The few Ukrainian units that fight well are those with specialists. And the Russians focus all their attacks against them because if they finish off those then the others will collapse.

-It takes a year to teach how to drive a tank and another year to teach how to fight as a team. Of course you can send people who only know 20% of what they should know. But that is said alone.

-A part of the front is protected by a river. The other part consists of defenses tens of kilometers deep, terrain that half the year is a natural mud, irrigation canals everywhere (which means that the other half of the year the Russians can turn it into a mud), and urban terrain everywhere.

-Not everything is bad. The European military industry is increasing its numbers without problems. The Russian only maintains them and at the cost of sinking quality and skyrocketing costs. Within a year or two the tables are irreversibly reversed.

-Until then we have to put up with the Russians.



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Tico says:

The Moroccans believe that Spain is theirs and that we have taken it from them. The country that Moroccans hate the most is Spain. The war with these people is inevitable, what we don't know is when it will start.

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So, your saying war between Spain and Morocco is inevitable, and the world should be concerned?



BFR said:

Tico says:

The Moroccans believe that Spain is theirs and that we have taken it from them. The country that Moroccans hate the most is Spain. The war with these people is inevitable, what we don't know is when it will start.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

So, your saying war between Spain and Morocco is inevitable, and the world should be concerned?

No. I said the universe should care.



Lol no Idea how you can believe Morocco will start a war against Spain which would be a NATO defense case. And yes, NATO countries and some others as well would help Spain.

Last edited by crissindahouse - on 14 July 2024

With Trump finally winning the next presidency after the attack on him, I think Ukraine should hoard the US missiles from now on and when Trump will stop supporting Ukraine, Ukraine can use those missiles to destroy planes and airbases on Russian ground.

They can't lose anything with this move anymore when Trump is president but will at least weaken Russia by some degree

Don't waste American missiles on targets which you are allowed to hit anymore 



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crissindahouse said:

Lol no Idea how you can believe Morocco will start a war against Spain which would be a NATO defense case. And yes, NATO countries and some others as well would help Spain.

Maybe because I live in Spain and I know this.

And maybe the guy they're interviewing knows something: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Alejandre_Mart%C3%ADnez



Tico said:
crissindahouse said:

Lol no Idea how you can believe Morocco will start a war against Spain which would be a NATO defense case. And yes, NATO countries and some others as well would help Spain.

Maybe because I live in Spain and I know this.

And maybe the guy they're interviewing knows something: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Alejandre_Mart%C3%ADnez

With the Spanish, Italian, Hellenic and French Navy I really want to see Morocco's plan to attack Spain. Or do you just mean shooting missiles to Spain? Morocco could do that but nonetheless they would regret it after a few hours



Tico said:
Ryuu96 said:

Maybe Poland would have sent troops into Ukraine if it got that dire. Have my doubts that Western Europe and America would follow them after everything I've seen, America + Germany very much expected Ukraine to fall in days and tried to evacuate Zelenskyy. Western Europe + America doesn't realise we're already at war with Russia, it may not be a conventional one where Russia is firing bullets at us, it's more of a hybrid one but this pathetic weakness on display by those in America and Western Europe will slowly walk us into a conventional one.

There's no excuse for the restrictions on Ukraine, there's no excuse for Germany's Taurus position and some European countries CAN send a lot more than they are and do a lot more than they are, if it is true that China poses no threat to Europe and only Russia does then logic says we should send Ukraine whatever they need to defeat Russia even if it makes us a little vulnerable because at the end of the day if Russia is defeated, it won't matter if we're a little vulnerable. Some countries realise that, such as those in the Nordics, Baltics, Eastern Europe. Those in Western Europe don't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LON613xqb60

Say what:

When the Cold War ended, some politicians believed that there would be no more wars, that there would only be small conflicts, but no more wars. But the other party has always been clear that wars exist and that we have to live through one because we have been at peace for a long time.

He says war with Morocco is inevitable, the only unknown is when. And he says we are deploying troops to Latvia, but we were just one step away from deploying them to Ukraine.

He doesn't say this, but I say it to clarify:

The Moroccans believe that Spain is theirs and that we have taken it from them. The country that Moroccans hate the most is Spain. The war with these people is inevitable, what we don't know is when it will start.

We Europeans deliver 80% of all our ammunition production to Ukraine. And the one we agreed to sell, we are trying to buy back to send it to Ukraine.

And the Czech initiative is surely the European nations that are emptying their warehouses but do not want it to be known.

They've been plenty of wars since the Cold War though, a few which European countries have been involved in but not war between two nuclear holding countries or a World War. The current issue is Western Europe is absolutely terrified at the prospect of a war with a nuclear holding country and one that can actually fight back, it's one thing to aerial bomb the shit out of Afghanistan and another to do it to Russia. Spain has had troops in Latvia since 2017. We've increased the amount of troops on the Eastern Flank though for obvious reasons.

Actions speak louder than words, the fact is America expected Kyiv to fall within 72 hours and tried to get Zelenskyy out of the country, that would have essentially been Ukraine falling, Germany didn't even believe an invasion was happening, it took days for us to decide to send weapons and it took months for us to decide to send MBTs, then months for Long-Range Missiles, then months for Jets. We point blank refused a no-fly zone over Ukraine at the time and Kyiv was almost encircled and we still did nothing. Germany still refuses to send Taurus and US/UK/France refuse to lift utterly idiotic military restrictions on Ukraine to hit airfields in Russia. Spain and Italy send next to nothing.

How can you see these events and believe that the West was about to send troops into Ukraine? I'll be a bit fair, I think there is possibly a scenario where Poland/Baltics say "fuck it" and send troops into Ukraine together but UK/US/France/Germany have consistently shown cowardice to do the right thing and Italy/Spain are irrelevant to the conversation, I want to be proven wrong, but I keep being disappointed, specifically about Western Europe + America but the issue is without these guys, the rest of Europe is unlikely to do anything without them.

The Baltics, Nordics, Eastern Europe are the only ones I can say are really clearing their stocks for Ukraine. France for a period straight up refused to let EU buy artillery for Ukraine outside of Europe, the Czech initiative is anonymous donations and actually in fact it has been reported that many of the countries involved are Russian-friendly countries outside of Europe.

Czech Republic essentially confirmed this, Czech officials said that the country's post-Soviet past was an advantage in acquiring ammo, they have a significant arms industry with global customers and good relations with many countries in the Global South with large stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons and the ability to produce more, essentially Czech is more trusted by the Global South than America/Western Europe.



Tico said:
RolStoppable said:

The war now lasts since almost two and a half years, yet somehow the West still needs more time. I don't buy this excuse, nor do I believe that any European country is ready to go to war with Russia in case that Ukraine falls.

Ukraine made huge gains in fall 2022 with the little they had got until then, so if the West had continued to give equipment step by step instead of hesitating on things like tanks for several months, Russia could have been pushed even farther back. But what happened instead is that the West got scared that Russia could lose the war.

The West's strategy is about hoping that Putin will eventually give in, seeing how much this war has cost his country. But the problem with this approach is that Putin won't give up exactly because he has already invested so much. The sunk cost is so high that anything but victory is unacceptable for Russia.

In Europe, governments know that:

-Ukraine is a European country: it is one of ours and they are attacking it. And if the Russians win they will continue advancing.

-The USSR and the KGB never left; They just changed their name.

-In Russia neither the government nor the people rule; the KGB commands (now it is called FSB, but it is the KGB).

-Those in charge of the KGB believe that Russia is an empire, they believe that Russia cannot lose, they believe that Russia is in danger (it is not the real Russia that is in danger, but the imperial Russia that exists in their minds), etc. They are crazy and dangerous people. There is no possible agreement with these madmen. They are going to fight as long as they have resources left. And that means at least one or two more years of war.

-Russia swims in defensive resources. The Russian military has known for 50 years that Russia is weak and that they must allocate resources to defense. And they've fought in the shadows to make sure that's the focus almost all the time.

-Logistics is maximum in areas near the sea because almost all world trade is done through the sea. It is not possible to drive Russia out of southern Ukraine because its troops are supplied. Furthermore, Ukraine did not and does not have trained people. And we did not have and do not have the weapons or ammunition to give it to them.

-The function of weapons is not to have to be used. For example, in Europe we have more than 100 patriots that we could deliver to Ukraine (another question is whether Ukraine has people capable of handling them). But its function is to let our enemies know that attacking us is going to be very costly. And therefore do not attack us. Actually, we cannot give Ukraine that. We have lots of weapons, but we can't deliver them.

-Training a soldier can be done in months. But training a specialist takes years. And it is the specialists who make a real combat force exist. The few Ukrainian units that fight well are those with specialists. And the Russians focus all their attacks against them because if they finish off those then the others will collapse.

-It takes a year to teach how to drive a tank and another year to teach how to fight as a team. Of course you can send people who only know 20% of what they should know. But that is said alone.

-A part of the front is protected by a river. The other part consists of defenses tens of kilometers deep, terrain that half the year is a natural mud, irrigation canals everywhere (which means that the other half of the year the Russians can turn it into a mud), and urban terrain everywhere.

-Not everything is bad. The European military industry is increasing its numbers without problems. The Russian only maintains them and at the cost of sinking quality and skyrocketing costs. Within a year or two the tables are irreversibly reversed.

-Until then we have to put up with the Russians.

I do agree with most of what is said here, especially the first 4 points, but the issue is still Western Europe politicians cowardice.

You mention about logistics being an issue, that's true, then why doesn't Germany send Taurus to blow the Kerch Bridge? You mention how we have over 100 Patriots and lots of weapons, fine, then why aren't we giving them to Ukraine? Especially since, if Russia is the only threat to Europe, it makes far more sense to end the threat in Ukraine rather than wait for them to attack the rest of Europe. If it takes so long to train troops on certain things, why did we waste months debating even doing that in the first place?

If our military industry is increasing no problem and Russia's is stagnating then fine, we can send even more stuff because it will be replaced anyway while Russia is busy with Ukraine, why is it that countries that border Russia are the only ones actually emptying their stocks of certain equipment when they are the ones most at risk? While Western Europe sits with its fingers up its ass saying "we need this stuff otherwise we'd feel unsafe" unsafe from who? Russia? Ukraine is fighting Russia for us!

The issue is Western Politicians are paralysed by fear, a fear that Russia will attack them and it feels like instead of defeating Russia in Ukraine, they'd rather wait until Russia attacks them years down the line which is baffling. It's also dangerous, we're going to lose America as support, that means losing ammo for HIMARS, that means losing ATACMS, that means losing Bradley's and other IFVs. We're going to lose American intel which is by far the best in the world, the consequences of losing all this will be dire for Ukraine unless Europe MASSIVELY steps up and takes a risk.



Tico said:
crissindahouse said:

Lol no Idea how you can believe Morocco will start a war against Spain which would be a NATO defense case. And yes, NATO countries and some others as well would help Spain.

Maybe because I live in Spain and I know this.

And maybe the guy they're interviewing knows something: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Alejandre_Mart%C3%ADnez

21/02/2024 - Sánchez Stresses That Bilateral Relations Between Spain and Morocco Are At Their Best Moment in Decades

I'm partly aware of Spain and Morocco's territorial disputes but suggesting Morocco will attack Spain...That would be suicide on Morocco's part, it would be Morocco vs NATO...Argentina and UK still have territorial disputes over the Falklands, Japan has territorial disputes with Russia, China and India fight over land with sticks and stones because they are terrified to use guns. Morocco is not firing a weapon at Spain (NATO) over a small amount of land, Lol.

Morocco has often had strong relations with European countries, been involved in both EU and NATO initiatives. France and Spain remain their main trade partners. They also sent tanks to Ukraine and Morocco's military is largely thanks to NATO countries, in particular a huge amount of their military equipment comes from USA and France. They aren't spaffing all this up the wall for some tiny amount of land.

UK and Spain have disputes over Gibraltar but I've not once thought that UK and Spain will go to war over that tiny ass piece of land

Morocco would have to be more insane than Russia to go to war with NATO over some tiny ass land.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 14 July 2024