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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint



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shavenferret said:
Ryuu96 said:

Two U.S. officials, when asked for comment, confirmed that the Biden administration's policy has not changed. "The assistance is for the defense and not for offensive operations in Russian territory," said one of the officials, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.

The Russians are "smart now," Ustinova said, "because they know there is a restriction for Ukrainians to shoot at the Russian territory. And we saw all of their military equipment sitting one or two kilometers from the border [near Kharkiv] and there was nothing we could do."

The U.K. government this month lifted a similar restriction on the use of British weapons inside Russia, an announcement made by British Foreign Secretary David Cameron during a visit to Kyiv. "Just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it's defending itself," he said.

U.S. officials increasingly believe Putin's plans to mobilize new military units, coupled with additional ammunition from Beijing and dwindling Western support for Kyiv, could land him a win in Ukraine — and sooner than expected.

It might not be the win that Putin originally wanted, which was a total takeover of Ukraine. But by the end of this year, he may be able to use his gains to negotiate favorable terms for Moscow, three officials familiar with Western intelligence say.

Ukraine has for months launched strikes inside Russia using its own small drones to attack oil facilities. But officials in Kyiv insist they need the more powerful U.S. missiles to break through Russian air defenses along the border.

"Everybody knew the Russians near Kharkiv [were] bringing the manpower, everybody knew they were bringing a lot of artillery, so what they're aiming at doing now is they're going to turn Kharkiv into the second Mariupol, or Aleppo," Ustinova said.

"We keep coming back to the same problem — that it's Russia telling us what we should be doing," she said. "You're giving us a stick but you will not let us use it."

It would be nice if things were opened up, but eventually Ukraine will be producing enough drones so that smaller targets like tanks and artillery will be available to strike. It seems like they can really only go after oil depots and whatnot in Russia at the moment. However, they are making more and more drones bc this is what has kept ukraine in the war 

Eh, they can make a lot of drones but drones are easy to shoot down so they have to be sent to less well-guarded areas such as oil fields, refineries, etc. They will probably waste hundreds of drones trying to destroy military grouping areas, on the other hand if HIMARS could shoot across the border, it would be able to cause serious damage to Russian military groupings.

BFR said:

Guys, my only thought on the harsh restriction the US has imposed on Ukraine not being allowed to use US weapons to attack true Russian soil is the nuclear threat.

By this measure, Russia may consider an attack on its soil by Ukraine utilizing US weapons, as an indirect attack by the US against Mother Russia, thus justifying a Russian nuclear response against Ukraine. This communication may have already taken place between Russia and the US using back channels. If this is true, then it would explain why the US has been insisting on this restriction all along.

I'm sorry BFR but if we fight a war being constantly afraid of Russia, unable to even take a fraction of the bravery that Ukraine is exhibiting then Russia will win this war. Ukraine is desperately clinging on, we shouldn't make it harder for them when we have the ability not to. If Ukraine is asking for it then Ukraine themselves are willing to risk Russia's mythical response which has always amounted to nothing.

What more can Russia do to Ukraine that it hasn't done already?

Russia has threatened consequences multiple times, threatened redlines multiple times.

  • They threatened us if we got involved, they did nothing.
  • They threatened us if we sent ATGMS, they did nothing.
  • They threatened us if we sent MBTs, they did nothing.
  • They threatened us if we sent long-range missiles, they did nothing.
  • They threatened us if Finland/Sweden joined NATO, they did nothing.

In addition, multiple countries have publicly said that Ukraine can use their weapons on Russian soil, the UK most recently has publicly said that Ukraine can use Storm Shadow on Russia, now I'll give you that we haven't seen that done yet so it could be UK saying one thing in public but enforcing another in private so until I see it then I'm going to remain sceptical.

You can literally find dozens of nuclear threats Russia has made against the West over the years, in particular they've made a lot towards the UK, Lol.

The United States would not be attacking Russia, Ukraine would, Russia has no moral right to moan about that, especially when Russian proxy forces such as Wagner have attacked American troops in the past, when Russia aids enemies of America around the world which attack American troops, I consider that a bigger deal than America giving Ukraine some weapons and Ukraine choosing what it wants to do with them.

  • Russia said that Crimea was Russian, it has been bombed multiple times by western weaponry.
  • Ukraine has bombed Russia multiple times using its own weapons.
  • Ukraine's Russian Volunteer Legion were once caught using American military vehicles in Russia and Russia did nothing.

If Russia nukes Ukraine then NATO have said they would get involved in the war.



BFR said:

"Even Russia isn't so stupid that they will risk nuclear war for something so small and inconsequential. What would they gain from nuking the west? Only the destruction of Russia, and I'm sure that ryyu96 will agree with this."

Guys, it all comes down to Putin and his state of mind. If he is a Mad Leader (like Hitler), and believing he is on the brink of losing this war and thus his leadership.....Russia's use of nukes against Ukraine cannot be ruled out. And this state of Putin's self-destruction is what Biden is afraid of.

Think about it, if Russia nuked Ukraine. How would NATO reply? They would certainly not nuke Russia, because Ukraine is not a NATO member !!!

Hitler was in the end a coward who shot himself when faced with overwhelming odds so if that's how Putin goes down then brilliant. Putin however has by all accounts displayed that he wants to live and when push comes to shove, he always backs down. Putin wants to live, as evidenced by his table paranoia, by his bunker hiding, by him fleeing when Wagner was marching on Moscow.

I mean this dude barely mustered a response when a private military company was marching on the capital of Russia and shot down multiple Russian aircraft on the way, he only dealt with the issue afterwards in his own cowardly way by shooting down their jet when everything cooled down. This is a man who can't even protect his own capital and would rather flee.

We all know what the consequences of nuclear war would be today, they're the biggest deterrent in the world precisely because nobody wins from a nuclear war, NATO has made clear if Russia uses nukes then we would get involved, especially because there's a high chance that nuclear winds would spread to NATO countries, therefore it would be an indirect attack on us as well.

There's not many places in Ukraine which Russia could even use a nuke which would A. Be tactically beneficial and B. Wouldn't backfire on them by either Belarus, NATO or Russia's own troops catching a stray. Russia is not going to use a nuke now or ever and if they do it will be the end of Russia when NATO responds. Russia only uses the nuclear threat to discourage the world from doing the right thing but they never follow through.

We must not let weak words stop us from doing the right thing.







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The new Axis of Evil continue to get stronger. Swapped Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Japan Empire for Russia, North Korea and Iran. This time around they're far weaker countries clinging onto fascism but they'll get stronger the more the West insists on Escalation Management as a tactic and sticking their head in the sand.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 15 May 2024





US does not encourage Ukraine to hit targets in Russia with US weapons but it is decision for Kyiv to make, Blinken says

The US does not encourage Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with US-supplied weapons but believes it is a decision Kyiv should make for itself, secretary of state Antony Blinken said on Wednesday.

He was speaking at a press conference in Kyiv after weeks of regular missile and drone strikes across Russia that Ukraine has not officially confirmed.

Russia-Ukraine War Live

Significant change in policy if they don't backtrack on this and about fucking time, yet again a complete waste of lives over dumb policies which are eventually removed months/years later, every single damn time. Weakness and escalation management that only benefits Russia which allows Russia to adapt and recover and the situation to get to breaking point for Ukraine every single time.

Though I still remain cautious until I see UK/US weapons actually striking Russia because I still have my doubts after how much weakness the West has shown, I could imagine a scenario of them saying something differently in private such as "it is your decision to make but if you do, then we will stop supplying you with our weapons" or the HIMARS could be disabled from striking Russia in the first place.

Until I see HIMARS striking Russian positions in Russia then I remain cautiously optimistic.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 15 May 2024

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 15 May 2024