Rant
Russia must lose and Russia losing is the best outcome for the stability of Europe, the consequences of Russia losing is it becomes a weakened state, a pariah country like North Korea only larger, too weakened to pose a threat to anyone afterwards for a while and ensuring the security of countries like Ukraine, Moldova and others in Europe, alongside putting off similar imperialist countries from doing the same. What would happen if Russia wins? Millions of Ukrainians dead, displaced and abused, that should be the only reason to stand up to an evil like Russia but I know that's not enough for people living cosy in their countries far away from the conflict lines and they need reasons which hurt them before they start acting.
So here it is, they'll be massive migration, millions of Ukrainians will have to flee into other European countries and have already done so but there's a bit of an assumption they'll return after the war is over. Immigration is a topic which always riles up Europeans and easy bait for far right politicians, they'll be screeching about how Ukrainians are taking our jobs, draining our resources, etc. Far right politicians will take advantage of this, they often also align with Putin's view of the world, they will be further campaigns on anti-immigration and Putin often uses migration as a tactic against Europe, firstly Russia destabilises a country and then indirectly sends millions of migrants into Europe to put pressure onto our countries.
We've seen this already in action with Fico (PM of Slovakia), a man who campaigned on anti-immigration against Ukrainian refugees, a far right twat who is like Orban when it comes to Putin, pro-Putin politicians will more easily get themselves elected meanwhile trust will breakdown amongst European countries, Czech Republic for example doesn't trust Fico so much so that they don't share Ukrainian data with Slovakia anymore and I suspect that applies to Orban as well, so we now have two NATO countries that nobody else trusts.
Moderate to left wing politicians will lose power, Ukrainian migrants could become the new easy target to hate, NATO and Europe will fracture as blame will be thrown around as to why Ukraine lost, I imagine the Baltics, Nordics and Central/Eastern European countries will point the blame at countries in Western Europe/America for not pulling their weight enough, for not listening to them, Poland may end up acquiring their own nuclear arsenal if they can no longer trust America or Western Europe anymore.
Moldova will be next to be slaughtered and we won't do a damn thing about it because of Transnistria, it will follow the exact same story as Ukraine, Russia causes trouble in a particular region of a country it wants with its little green men totally not Russian soldiers in secret, that region will then "independently" call on Russia for help, Russia will then begin an invasion to "protect" Russians. That country therefore can't join NATO because nobody would vote them in if there's a current active conflict with Russian backed forces, so when Moldova is inevitably destroyed next because it can't get NATO protection, that'll be another hundreds of thousands of migrants into Europe and dead Moldovans.
Belarus will be next, not via military means, Lukashenko is a puppet who would happily hand Belarus over and Belarusians won't be able to do a damn thing about it, Ukraine winning may actually inspire them to stand up once more to Lukashenko and overthrow that puppet regime whilst Russia is too weakened to prevent it, maybe even Ukraine could help them, the protests against Lukashenko had hundreds of thousands and only happened 4 years ago, once Belarus sells itself to Russia they'll be even more migrants into Europe.
Conflict will escalate between Armenia and Azerbaijan as Azerbaijan realises nobody will protect Armenia. China will see a route at taking Taiwan and a lack of conviction from the West to do the right thing. Russia has turned their country into full scale war mode, they aren't going to suddenly after taking Ukraine be like "yo, we friends now?" they won't be able to easily change back to being a "normal" country after entering war production, Russia only knows war right now and it will remain that way until its complete defeat on the battlefield.
Then Putin may set his sights on a Baltic country, he may believe that Russia already beat NATO in Ukraine. Would Putin think that we would defend Estonia? That we would actually send troops in to kill Russian soldiers? That we would put ourselves at risk for a tiny country like Lativa? When we're too fucking scared of redlines about sending Ukrainians equipment for Ukrainians to use, not us? But we'd all of a sudden be brave and protect a Baltic country if they were invaded because a small bit of black ink on some paper says "an attack on one NATO country is an attack on us all"
Actions speak louder than words and with the amount of redlines and fear about Ukraine when we aren't even shooting a single bullet at Russia, even I start to wonder if we would put boots in the ground to protect another country or if we'll instead just be like "Here! Have some ammo! Here's a few missiles too! But don't use em on Russia! Only use them on your own country! Good luck buddy, die to protect us" Russia is a modern day Nazi Germany, their appetite won't be quenched just with Ukraine, they already have the biggest fucking country in the world, all Russia is about now is war and they want to expand their empire.
I wish politicians would actually learn from history and put a stop to things now rather than wait until it's too late.
