"If Ukraine wanted to escalate its pressure on Russian oil refining revenue, they would target the key product export terminal infrastructure at the ports of Primorsk or Novorossiysk," said Mark Williams, research director for short-term oils at consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. "However, that would further pressure the relationship with its Western allies as the impact on global oil and refined product prices would be substantial."
For now, Ukraine's drone campaign is focused solely on having an economic impact within Russia — hampering the country's ability to process crude oil into fuel and wearing down its air defenses.
"It's basically a new form of attrition warfare where these systems get deployed in massive volumes against strategic sites," said Serra-Martins of Terminal Autonomy, a US company with production facilities in Ukraine that was founded last year. The drones are designed to be low-cost and single-use, meaning missiles from Russian air defense systems can cost up to 40 times more than the aircraft they're targeting.
The attacks also have a psychological goal, said another drone manufacturer who spoke on condition of anonymity. Moscow's propaganda tries to make its citizens forget the nation is at war, but long lines at fuel stations would bring the reality of conflict to their daily lives, the person said.
While Russian governors are often the first to comment on drone attacks at refineries in their official Telegram accounts, the authorities have made a concerted effort to mute any impact on the wider population.
Several regions have asked people not to film drone attacks or take pictures of the damage they cause. The government of the Leningrad region went as far as banning such videos and pictures, although the punishment for violating the order has yet to be determined.
"Russia is a gas station with an army, and we intend on destroying that gas station," Francisco Serra-Martins, co-founder and chief executive officer of drone manufacturer Terminal Autonomy, said in an interview. "We are going to focus on where it hits the hardest, and that's financial resources."
Ukraine’s Drones Threaten Russian Oil Industry With Refinery Strikes - Bloomberg
