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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

“I hate the stalemate analogy because war is not a game of chess,” Snyder said in an interview with the Guardian. “In chess, there are only so many pieces on the board, and the reason why you get into stalemate is that your pieces get into a certain arrangement.”

However, war did not mirror the boardgame, the historian argued, because the amount of resources or weaponry available to each side is not limited. “The reason why I hate the stalemate analogy is that it suggests we can’t just drop five more queens on the Ukrainians board, and we can do it any time.”

Snyder said: “I think there are a lot of people on the Russian leadership and the Russian elite who just enjoy the cruelty. They just like the idea of depriving Ukrainians of water and food and energy and warmth during the winter,” and the goal of the drone-detection system was to help prevent that.

Political arguments against providing more support for Ukraine advanced by some Republicans were “bad faith arguments”, Snyder argued. Those calling for an audit of US spending on Ukraine were not taking into account the fact “we have never audited our own department of defence”.

Snyder said: “The other argument that people make is that we’re fatigued, which is ridiculous. We’re not fatigued, we’re easily distracted.” He argued that those advancing such a position perhaps “want Putin to win” but are “maybe afraid to say so”.

Failure to maintain support for Ukraine would amount to a long-term foreign policy disaster greater than the invasion of Iraq, Snyder argued. “It’s stunning how much the Americans would have to lose in terms of credibility, democracy, deterring China, deterring Russia and basically everything,” the historian said.

Snyder said: “The big, unpredictable thing is that Ukrainians have shown they can do much more than we expected. And I think that’s the point where we have to keep pushing. If they can generally do more than we expect, then we should be trying to find ways to help them,” he said.

Ukraine | The Guardian



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Ryuu96 said:

"A corresponding coalition has been established – the air defense development coalition. The leaders in its organization are Germany and France. I am grateful for this leadership. I am also grateful to every country that participates in these efforts, which enable our cities and villages to be more protected from Russian attacks.

Not everything can be said publicly yet, but Ukraine's sky shield is getting more powerful literally every month."

Ukrainska Pravda

I'd say defensive aid has been mostly good, of course I'd love more and they should be more sent all the time, Ukraine is a massive country and defensive aid is equally as important as offensive aid but I believe support for defensive aid has been overall strong, among all the usual air defence systems, then we have IRIS-T and Patriots which are among the best in the world. Things still get through but it's unavoidable.

It's the offensive aid which is severely lacking, Imo.

I do with you were a subscriber to The Times, just as I know you wouldn't take the excuses and nonsense that I regularly see posted by the same old Putin apologists and appeasers on there.

You'd probably be a fair bit more emphatic that myself in your replies.



Ryuu96 said:

It ain't just sending equipment either but stuff like posted above.

"EU capitals should mobilise investment & cajole arms makers into expanding capacity, by pooling orders & signing over a longer term.'"

We need to be doing this tenfold, Russia is in war economy mode, their entire country is turning to war production, meanwhile Western nations are like "eh, we'll throw a few contracts here and there" Arms makers are telling Western countries to sort their shit out even, they're basically saying "listen, we want to support Ukraine but we need the orders and we need long term commitments to start up new manufacturing"

It's also crazy because shit like the above creates jobs but nobody seems interested in talking about that angle.

The West should be domestically producing thousands of drones, artillery, ammo for Ukraine alongside sending our existing stock.

I also don't buy that any Western nation can't take a hit to their military, I don't care, there is nobody who is a threat to us other than Russia and China and we have the chance to end Russia's threat completely by supporting Ukraine. It feels like these massive militaries were built up just for show. China will be deterred if we win even if our militaries take a notable hit.

And that is the thing I don't get why hasn't production increased. I agree countries that say they don't have equipment they can send to help doesn't mean they can't sign contracts and fund new equipment to go directly to Ukraine. Scaling drones production as an example shouldn't be that hard if countries paid for it. hey are also relatively cheaper then tanks, so the same amount of money will produce far more drones that could be used more tactically then 1 tank. 



 

 

crissindahouse said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

France does more than it seems in pure financial terms. They deliver lots of artillery and AA (30 Ceasar SP Artillery pieces out of a total stock of 76, plus all of their 155mm towed howitzers and lots of different shells, rockets and rocket systems). However, the really expensive stuff, like tanks and IFVs, aren't sent by France since they don't have the tooling and no replacement in sight for the Leclerc tank while the VBCI IFV is wheeled and thus not really appropriate for the Ukrainian theatre.

Also, their equipment tends to be cheaper by design (Their new APC is contractually obliged to cost less than 1M, the Bradley by contrast already cost much than that in the 80's), so the monetary value of what they are sending is lower, too.

Edit: Belgium, on the other hand, is well-known to massively underfund the military and rely on their neighbours and NATO partners for their defence, so even if they wanted, they simply don't have anything to send. Until recently they barely sent more than Luxembourg, a country with an "Army" of a grand total of less than 800 soldiers (We always joke that if Germany wants to conquer us again, they'd send the firefighters from Trier this time around).

Sounds like excuses to me. I bet there is something countries like Italy, France and Spain could do. Germany as example is sending their Iris-T systems to Ukraine before they even get them themselves. Brand new equipment. I'm sure the other countries also get some air defense or other equipment which they could send to Ukraine first. 

Stuff like the tanks is obviously another story but yeah, right now nobody can tell me that the other big European countries just can't do more...

But it looks really bad for Ukraine now. Wilders won in Netherlands, German politicians can't get their shit together right now to even free money for anything so that money for Ukraine looks even worse. Then what's happening in USA and so on...

I'm not denying that France certainly could do quite a bit more, I'm just saying it's not quite as bad as the raw numbers would suggest. I can understand why they won't send their brand-new anti-Drone system (out of fear that Russia could capture and reverse-engineer them or develop some countering devices), but they have other equipment that they could send.

Not much air defense (due to their focus on mobility and anti-insurrection warfare they only use Mistral MANPADS, of which they already donated some), but especially their bridging and mine-clearing equipment could be interesting to Ukraine. The EFA for instance is a mobile bridge and ferry all in one, perfect to ship personnel and equipment in bigger quantities quickly across the Dniepr. They have around 100 Mine-clearing Robots which would be a big boon in allowing offensive actions again.

Other than that, they also have some surplus which is worth noting: They put 55 MLRS into deep storage and only recovered 15 of them (13 for themselves and a paltry 2 for Ukraine so far). They could pretty much send all their MILAN And Javelin Anti-Tank missiles, as they have 2 replacement systems in large quantities already. They have several hundred, if not over 1000 VAB in storage now that it's successors are available in larger quantities.

So yes, they certainly could send more. It looks like they are ramping up shipments again lately though (new Ceasar artillery systems and dozens of VAB engineering vehicles in October), so there's hoping that they will send more in the near future



Here we go again, the Winter campaign to try to freeze Ukrainian civilians to death begins again.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
crissindahouse said:

Sounds like excuses to me. I bet there is something countries like Italy, France and Spain could do. Germany as example is sending their Iris-T systems to Ukraine before they even get them themselves. Brand new equipment. I'm sure the other countries also get some air defense or other equipment which they could send to Ukraine first. 

Stuff like the tanks is obviously another story but yeah, right now nobody can tell me that the other big European countries just can't do more...

But it looks really bad for Ukraine now. Wilders won in Netherlands, German politicians can't get their shit together right now to even free money for anything so that money for Ukraine looks even worse. Then what's happening in USA and so on...

I'm not denying that France certainly could do quite a bit more, I'm just saying it's not quite as bad as the raw numbers would suggest. I can understand why they won't send their brand-new anti-Drone system (out of fear that Russia could capture and reverse-engineer them or develop some countering devices), but they have other equipment that they could send.

So I understand the theory behind this fear but I also think...That's war, if these countries were being attacked, would they hold back stuff in fear of the opponent reverse engineering it? They wouldn't. I know they aren't being attacked but Ukraine is in prime position to wipe an enemy off the map long term and also we get another country into NATO, one in which would have more recent combat experience than every country in NATO, better knowledge than any other country in how to deal with Russia, Europe's main rival.

Or we end up with Ukraine in ruins and a vital military ally gone because we were too afraid of our own technology being reverse engineered, and honestly it's not a fear that I share, Western technology has proven itself to be far superior to Russia's already, Russia can reverse engineer our shit and while they do that, we'll be building brand new shit that is already better than the stuff Russia has reverse engineered, especially after their economy is pummelled and they've suffered a huge brain drain as a result of the war.

Even our 1980s stuff is better than Russia's 2010's stuff, Lol.



If NATO wants to think of it in purely selfish terms, try this, Ukraine is more battle experienced than any country in NATO right now, they're the only country who has fought modern day Russia and lived to tell the tale, what other country in NATO has recently fought a global superpower? Collectively invading countries far weaker than you to deal with some terrorists isn't the same thing at all.

The West told Ukraine in fear that they would be crushed in days and to evacuate, they were wrong, embarrassingly wrong, Ukraine held. Ukraine proved them wrong. We were wrong. We aren't the Gods of military tactics and understand absolutely everything, The West achieves victories through air supremacy but without it they don't know what to do and expect Ukraine to achieve miracles without air supremacy.

But Ukraine still holds against impossible odds. Many countries would crumble without air supremacy. Ukraine doesn't. Their knowledge is vital, their experience is vital, Ukraine is vital to NATO's security and an ally that would repay us tenfold but would only be capable of repaying us if we don't let them turn into ruins through fear of sending things, fear of taking hits to our own military, etc.



Ukraine is looking for opportunities to modernize the F-16 fighter jets planned for transfer.

MP Oleksandra Ustinova shared this in an interview with the European Pravda.

Ustinova noted that Ukrainian representatives, including the Ministry of Defense, are actively discussing with international partners the modernization of fighter jets planned for transfer.

Modernization with the installation of a modern AN/APG-83 active electronically scanned array fire control radar may be a promising option for Ukrainian F-16s. The new radar will increase the range of target detection and provide a higher probability of detecting low-altitude and small-sized objects.

The new modernization should, in particular, also include adaptation for the use of American JASSM cruise missiles, more advanced short-range AIM-9X air-to-air missiles, and new American medium-range AIM-120D air-to-air missiles with a range of more than a hundred kilometers.

Ukraine Discusses F-16 Modernization - Militarnyi

UAE Tightens Scrutiny on Russian Firms Amid Pressure From US - Bloomberg

Moscow and Beijing Hold Secret Talks on Crimean Tunnel Project – WP



Another major accomplishment by Ukraine, a country with essentially no Navy, defeating the Navy of a country with one of the biggest in the world, in one of their key locations, nobody needs Russia anymore in the Black Sea, their threats are meaningless, their Navy has fled. It's an achievement which doesn't get anywhere near enough credit because it's not colours on the frontline changing.