Part of me wonders if the reason we don't see him much, at all, is well, the obvious, Lol.
But if Prigozhin is removed from Wagner (again, we have no confirmation of that) then this fucker is now fully in control?
Hopefully Putin gives him the special tea too.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 25 June 2023
Whether or not Lukashenko played quite the enterprising broker’s role described in the statements coming out of the Kremlin and Minsk (and most analysts are sceptical) he has emerged in the Russian press as the hero of the hour, the man who saved Moscow.
“The president of Belarus informed the president of Russia in detail about the results of negotiations with the leadership of Wagner PMC [private military company],” the official statement from Lukashenko’s office said. “The president of Russia supported and thanked his Belarusian counterpart for the work done.”
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the deal, by which Prigozhin called back the Wagner column advancing on Moscow on Saturday and agreed to move to Belarus, was Lukashenko’s “personal initiative which was coordinated with President Putin.”
“We don’t know exactly who is moving to Belarus. Is it just Prigozhin and his security or some sizeable chunk of his army?” Shraibman said. “I assume it’s not going to be his army because it would be a threat to Lukashenko who would not tolerate these unpredictable goons on his territory.”
Another question is how long Prigozhin can survive in Belarus. Shraibman does not think the direct threat would come from Lukashenko, who would want to be seen to honour his deal, but whether he could protect his guest from the Kremlin is another matter.
US scretary of state Blinken says that "I don't think we've seen the final act" of Russian turmoil - ABC
— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) June 25, 2023
Aborted Mercenary Uprising in Russia Shows 'Cracks' In Putin's Power: Blinken - ABC News
Putin bet that Russia is better suited to a long war than the West. Wagner's mutiny, and Russian history, suggest he's wrong. @yarotrof & @tggrove https://t.co/0Nw0i8dbdP via @WSJ
— Marcus Walker (@MMQWalker) June 25, 2023
“Mr Putin was counting on a long war in which the West would grow tired of arming and funding Ukraine. There is now strong evidence that the war’s prolongation is also accelerating the fragmentation and decay of his regime.” @TheEconomist https://t.co/t3bBuAbGga
— Vassili Golod (@VassiliGolod) June 25, 2023
During the oral briefing, Tjorven Bellmann, the Political Director of the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Zimtje Möller, the Parliamentary State Secretary for Defence, expressed their suspicion that Wagner Group leader Prigozhin did not receive the support from the Russian state forces he was counting on during the coup attempt, so he stopped his campaign to Moscow.
Honestly I wonder if the VKS will even want to protect Wagner after what they did.
13 dead pilots, Rybar reports 20+ dead pilots.
Can't wait to see the VKS "accidentally" not provide air support for Wagner forces.
| Ryuu96 said: Part of me wonders if the reason we don't see him much, at all, is well, the obvious, Lol. But if Prigozhin is removed from Wagner (again, we have no confirmation of that) then this fucker is now fully in control? Hopefully Putin gives him the special tea too. |
I hope Putin unknowingly drinks a special beverage too.
CaptainExplosion said:
I hope Putin unknowingly drinks a special beverage too. |
Just Putin, Prigozhin, Utkin all sitting around a table together, all of them with a special cup of tea, just some peaceful negotiations 
Serhii Nikitenko, a local journalist in Kherson showed the current situation at the Kakhovka reservoir. The water has almost completely dissapeared. pic.twitter.com/jWqVrQ5y0s
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 25, 2023
A few thoughts on Prigozhin's armed insurrection/mutiny/rebellion. For now it appears over. Wagner seems to be standing down, and leaving Rostov for LNR. Prigozhin launched a mutiny that ultimately challenged Putin’s power, and the system. Thread. 1/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
I had long wondered whether Prigozhin understood something intuitively about the system, if the regime was fundamentally hollow, prominent members like Shoigu were weak, and Putin could be pressed into deals, etc. or if he was grossly miscalculating. 3/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
Most of the Russian military is deployed in Ukraine. And while to outsiders Wagner is seen as a separate force, it wasn’t treated as such in Rostov. You can chalk this either up to sympathy or stereotypical lack of initiative by local forces. 5/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
I was skeptical on Wagner's odds because most coups fail, and Russia does not have a strong history of successful military coups to begin with. Though Wagner’s thunder run to Moscow was looking much better than Russian attempts to pull this off against Kyiv in 2022. 7/ pic.twitter.com/ivIlTFOnmu
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
Regarding the bloodless nature of this mutiny. Wagner shot down six helicopters and an Il-18 (Il-22) command and control aircraft. Supposedly 13 pilots were killed in that one day’s action. How many Wagner soldiers died in strikes is unclear. 9/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
Prigozhin had declared that Wagner would not sign contracts with the Russian military, designed to neuter their autonomy. Theatrics ensued, but this standoff was clearly going to end poorly. The trajectory was a downward spiral from his May ultimatums leading into a crisis. 11/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
It’s unclear if Prigozhin was counting on more support. He certainly didn’t get it from pro-war factions. Security services and the military didn’t side with him either. Apathy is not enough. His timing was poor given the situation at the front. 13/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
After Bakhmut, the military was far less dependent on Wagner. Folks often conflated Bakhmut for the entire Russian winter offensive, and Wagner’s role as though it was omnipresent on the front. It was quite narrow, and Wagner was not used for defense in the south. 15/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
Wagner might be disbanded in its entirety, or absorbed. The Russian state had been trying to set up competing organizations and this process is likely to accelerate now. This in part depends on what happens to Wagner’s backers in Moscow - what was Prigozhin's cover there. 17/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
My conclusion is that Prigozhin ultimately lost. Wagner will also lose out. But Putin lost as well, and the regime was wounded. What the long term repercussions are remains to be seen. 19/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 25, 2023
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