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Whether or not Lukashenko played quite the enterprising broker’s role described in the statements coming out of the Kremlin and Minsk (and most analysts are sceptical) he has emerged in the Russian press as the hero of the hour, the man who saved Moscow.
“The president of Belarus informed the president of Russia in detail about the results of negotiations with the leadership of Wagner PMC [private military company],” the official statement from Lukashenko’s office said. “The president of Russia supported and thanked his Belarusian counterpart for the work done.”
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the deal, by which Prigozhin called back the Wagner column advancing on Moscow on Saturday and agreed to move to Belarus, was Lukashenko’s “personal initiative which was coordinated with President Putin.”
“We don’t know exactly who is moving to Belarus. Is it just Prigozhin and his security or some sizeable chunk of his army?” Shraibman said. “I assume it’s not going to be his army because it would be a threat to Lukashenko who would not tolerate these unpredictable goons on his territory.”
Another question is how long Prigozhin can survive in Belarus. Shraibman does not think the direct threat would come from Lukashenko, who would want to be seen to honour his deal, but whether he could protect his guest from the Kremlin is another matter.
